In Michigan's crucial Senate race, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is pulling ahead of Republican Mike Rogers in an election being driven by opposition to President Donald Trump, according to a Sept. 22 poll from Suffolk University.
Nearly half of the likely voters in Michigan surveyed said they were casting their ballot "to change the direction President Trump is leading the nation." That 48% dwarfed the 20% who want to support Trump and the 28% who said their vote didn't have much to do with him.
El-Sayed, a doctor and former public health official, now leads Rogers, a former congressman, 47%-40% in a race many Republicans have viewed as their best chance to pick up a Democratic-held seat. Trump carried Michigan in 2024, albeit narrowly, and El-Sayed is
a progressive who has never held elective office.
Two polls released last week showed El-Sayed with a two or three-point edge over Rogers.
To gain a Senate majority in the midterms, Democrats need to hold all the seats they currently hold and flip four GOP seats. Earlier, that prospect had seemed improbable but independent analysts now put the odds around 50-50.
The poll of 500 likely general-election voters, taken by landline and cell phone Sept. 16-20, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
The Suffolk University survey found Trump's approval rating has sunk to 31% in Michigan, where Democrats see the economic impact of his tariffs, especially those imposed on neighboring Canada, as a major liability for the GOP.
A different landscape from 2024
In the governor's race, Democrat Jocelyn Benson has built a double-digit lead over Republican John James, 51%-34%.
"Trump's underwhelming approval rating, Canadian tariffs, opposition to data centers and a tepid Michigan economy have swung independents away from Republican candidates," said David Paleologos, director of Suffolk's Political Research Center. "That's markedly different from 2024."
The findings are full of red flags for the president and his party.
- The economy and inflation are by far the most important issue shaping their vote, Michiganders say, and concern about "threats to democracy" ranks second.
- Assessments of how the economy is doing are dismal, with 86% calling it fair or poor.
- Two-thirds, 67%, are concerned about the impact of Trump's tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks and auto parts. By more than 2-1, 54%-23%, they predict the tariffs will hurt Michigan's jobs and auto industry.
- By more than 3-1, 60%-18%, they oppose the development in Michigan of data centers, an industry Trump supports.
El-Sayed is now backed by 88% of Democrats, but in the primary he struggled for support from Black voters, an important part of the party's coalition in Michigan. In the poll, 72% of Black voters supported him, with 11% backing Rogers and 8% undecided.
A test for the GOP -- and the left
El-Sayed's campaign is a test not only for Trump but also for the progressive voices who helped him win the nomination over the establishment's preferred candidate, Rep. Haley Stevens.
Since then, conservatives have depicted El-Sayed as a socialist − though he describes himself as a capitalist − and the face of a radical Democratic Party. Vice President JD Vance called him "evil."
His election would be groundbreaking, making him the first Muslim U.S. senator in history. The son of Egyptian immigrant parents, El-Sayed has discussed how his Muslim faith influences his values.
In the survey, 61% said a candidate's religion affected their vote "very little" or not at all. El-Sayed carried both groups easily.
More than a third, 37%, said it would impact their vote "somewhat" or "greatly." Both groups supported Rogers. Those who said religion would have the greatest impact overwhelmingly supported him, 88%-8%.
Susan Page is the Washington Bureau chief of USA TODAY, where she writes about the White House and politics.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: El-Sayed lead for Michigan Senate grows, helped by views of Trump
