The late Sen. Lindsey Graham's former Senate seat in South Carolina has gone from safely red territory to neck-and-neck with less than a week remaining until Election Day.
Lindsey Graham's sister, Sen. Darline Graham, is seeking a full six-year term after she was appointed to fill the seat for the remainder of the current term. Her brother, who died July 11, 2026, won his 2020 reelection bid by more than 10 points.
But three new polls show a nearly neck-and-neck contest between the interim senator and her Democratic opponent, Dr. Annie Andrews.
A New York Times/Siena University poll of likely South Carolina voters released Oct. 28, less than a week before Election Day, found Graham essentially tied with the Charleston-area pediatrician. A poll from
The Citadel of registered South Carolina voters released Oct. 28 shows Graham, who previously led the South Carolina Commission for the Blind, with a 4-point lead over Andrews, 43-39, with 15% still undecided.
A South Carolina Policy Council Fall Poll of registered South Carolina voters, first reported Oct. 26 by FOX Carolina, then published the following day, found Graham leading Andrews by one percentage point. A Constitution Party candidate, a Libertarian nominee and a lesser-known Democrat are also on the ballot.
Nonpartisan election forecasters, including the nonpartisan Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, have shifted the race from "likely Republican" to "lean Republican."
South Carolina is the latest in a series of states that President Donald Trump won but where Republicans are now on defense, including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas. Trump won South Carolina by nearly 18 points in 2024, but his national approval rating has sunk to record lows in the waning weeks of the 2026 midterm cycle.
And the White House has taken notice. Trump has already campaigned once in South Carolina and has a second trip planned to back Graham this week.
National Democrats began targeting Lindsey Graham's old seat in the wake of the longtime lawmaker's death. Andrews, 45, is a relatively known quantity in the state – she lost a House race to outgoing Rep. Nancy Mace in 2022 and originally announced her candidacy to run against Darline Graham's older brother in May 2025.
"Whether you voted for Donald Trump, Lindsey Graham, or anyone else, if you care more about your bills than the politics in Washington, this campaign is for you," Andrews said in a statement.
USA TODAY reached out to Graham's campaign for comment.
The race is further complicated by a bitter Aug. 11 primary that Trump-endorsed Graham, 62, won over Rep. Russell Fry, who later endorsed the senator, and Rep. Ralph Norman, who lost an eventual Aug. 25 runoff to Graham.
Norman was supported in the primary by Mace and former South Carolina Govs. Mark Sanford and Nikki Haley, who five-term congressman Norman backed over Trump in 2024.
Norman pledged to support the newcomer this week but said his family would not on right-leaning radio program "The Nashional Briefing," leading to questions over whether Norman supporters would back Graham.
Andrews-Graham contest gets tense
The Graham-Andrews contest remains tense ahead of Election Night.
There is a massive gap in fundraising totals: Graham has a war chest of less than $2 million, while Andrews wields $24 million of campaign cash.
Trump has used an anti-trans slur to describe Andrews, and it has been repeated by Sen. Tim Scott, the state's senior senator.
Former Republican Gov. David Beasley chided Trump on Oct. 5 in an X post for the president's use of the slur, and endorsed Andrews in an Oct. 26 ad featuring Jim Hodges, who defeated him in 1998.
Graham refers to Andrews as a "liberal" with a "radical agenda" for South Carolina. Meanwhile, Andrews recast herself as a more moderate mother working to bring down costs, fight corruption and put South Carolina first.
Andrews has also leaned into nepotism narratives that exist about Graham's qualifications to hold a Senate seat, although neither woman has ever held elected office.
"For 18 months, I've traveled this state and looked you in the eye," Andrews said in a closing ad, surrounded by her three kids. "Darline Graham has looked down at a script, written by Washington insiders trying to buy this seat."
Andrews has flexed her own support for and from law enforcement and from Norman's son, Warren Norman. In an op-ed for South Carolina independent site FITSNews published Oct. 23, the younger Norman expressed his support for Andrews while warning against Graham's support from the Republican "establishment."
The Senate seat, Norman said, could belong to Graham for 24 years or more.
"If Annie Andrews wins and doesn’t stand up to her party the way she has promised, South Carolina voters can hold her accountable and replace her with a strong conservative in six," Norman wrote.
South Carolina is a unique state for Trump. Despite Trump's primary and general election endorsements of Graham, he made the unusual decision of dual endorsements for the state's top gubernatorial primary contenders earlier this year.
Trump dually endorsed the state's attorney general, Alan Wilson, on June 19 just days before the June 23 primary. He first backed his preferred candidate, Pamela Evette, on May 29.
Wilson leads state Rep. Jermaine Johnson by 7% in the same New York Times poll showing Graham and Andrews in a close race Oct. 28.
Contributing: James Powel
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Can Annie Andrews, a Democrat, upset Darline Graham in South Carolina?
