WASHINGTON — In the face of voter resentment over the Iran war, President Donald Trump said it "won't be necessary" to escalate the monthslong conflict that caused gas prices to spike and put his Pentagon chief in the congressional crosshairs.
"Iran, militarily, is effectively over. We're just keeping it the status quo," Trump declared at a surprise news conference on Nov. 9.
Trump said in the lead-up to the midterms that he faced a "big decision" on whether to resume large-scale strikes or make a peace agreement. But with his war partner, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, at risk of losing power amid negotiations over forming a new government, Republicans about to surrender their majority in Congress and Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth facing
impeachment, Trump signaled in recent days that he intends to follow a third track for now: maintain the status quo.
The U.S. military can continue escorting ships through the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said in a "60 Minutes" interview taped on Nov. 6, arguing that unspecified countries in the region would help cover the costs. The Trump administration said the strikes it has conducted in recent days on Qeshm Island have been to prevent Iranian surface-to-air missiles from hitting U.S. assets in the region.
"The U.S. acts defensively," Secretary of State Marco Rubio told reporters on Nov. 8. "If there’s a threat to our forces in the region, we will act against those."
Trump met with Qatar's prime minister privately on Nov. 9, but the meeting in Washington was not expected to yield a deal. Rubio also told reporters the evening before that negotiators were not on the verge of a diplomatic breakthrough. The top U.S. diplomat said talks had not been very productive, with the Iranians making demands that were "outrageous and ridiculous and really not realistic."
Momentum lost for large-scale military conflict
Trump and Rubio's comments came ahead of an expected vote on impeaching Hegseth in the House of Representatives. The effort, led by an anti-war Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Kentucky, is expected to see widespread backing from Democrats and could draw support from Republicans frustrated with the war and Hegseth.
The shift in tone also comes in the wake of a crushing defeat for Republicans in the midterm elections that Trump and Vice President JD Vance blamed on the ongoing warand the ensuing rise in oil prices. Polls in the days leading up to the midterms repeatedly showed that the cost of living was the top concern among voters.
"The reason we lost is the war," Vance wrote in a social media post on Nov. 4. "If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest."
The public admission by senior Trump administration officials that the Republican defeat constituted a referendum on the war will significantly diminish U.S. appetite for continuing the conflict, according to Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, chief executive of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, a think tank focused on Iran's economy.
"A lot of the momentum behind further military conflict, at least of a significant scale, has been lost," Batmanghelidj said. "It would look really extraordinary if key officials in the administration acknowledge that they lost this election because of the impact of the war, and then they were to double down on it."
As recently as last week, Trump was warning the United States could bomb Pickaxe Mountain, where Iran's enriched uranium is believed to be buried underground. Then, Trump said on "60 Minutes" that he saw no reason to strike Iran again, saying the nuclear material was trapped under thousands of tons of rock.
Trump has said his focus is to ensure Iran does not acquire a nuclear weapon. So far, neither military nor economic nor diplomatic pressure has succeeded in forcing Iranian officials to capitulate to Trump's demands and end the war on his terms. The conflict, which has lasted for more than eight months, is currently stuck somewhere between war and peace amid intermittent strikes and off-and-on mediations.
For months, Trump has suggested the Iran war would end "immediately after the election," but he recently backed away from those comments. Vance has also said the White House is not rushing to decide whether or not to escalate the Iran war.
"We haven’t set deadlines," Vance told USA TODAY on Nov. 2. "We do think that there is a pathway there, but it really does require a firm commitment and a verifiable commitment that they don’t rebuild that nuclear program."
For now, it appears the United States will plan to increase economic pressure on Iran while peace negotiations proceed. But maintaining the status quo in the Middle East, including a naval blockade of Iran, will come at a steep price for the Pentagon and U.S. taxpayers.
The war has cost the U.S. military more than $47 billion as of Oct. 16, according to the latest estimate from the Pentagon. That figure does not include billions in damage to U.S. bases and facilities in the Middle East, which were targeted by Iran at the start of the war.
Roughly 50,000 troops have been deployed to U.S. Central Command's area of responsibility in support of the Iran war. At least 23 U.S. service members have died in the Middle East, and another 865 have been wounded since the start of the fighting, according to the U.S. military's official casualty database.
Hegseth doubles down in face of impeachment
Hegseth has sought to frame the looming impeachment vote against him as a test of whether Republican lawmakers support the Trump administration's war against Iran and the military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
A day after Vance blamed the Iran war for the Republican Party’s election losses, Hegseth defended the conflict as a courageous effort to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
"If you want to take issue with what we did in Epic Fury or Rough Rider or nabbing Nicolás Maduro, you’re taking issue with the troops and what they accomplished, which is historic," Hegseth said, referring to the military operations in Iran and Venezuela. "There's a lot of politically motivated people who may have substantial policy disagreements, but their disagreements are with success."
Massie has said that Hegseth deserves to be removed from office because he violated the Constitution by waging war against Iran without congressional approval. The impeachment resolution also accused Hegseth of ignoring laws mandated by Congress to minimize civilian casualties during military conflict and of violating the law by conducting lethal strikes against boats operated by alleged drug traffickers in the Caribbean Sea.
Hegseth will hold a news conference on Nov. 10 to defend himself against Massie's impeachment effort as the Pentagon chief digs his heels in despite growing calls for his ouster. Massie said he hopes Hegseth will address the substance of the allegations against him.
"I hope he addresses the eight articles, and doesn't get up and misquote the Bible in Quentin Tarantino fashion and do some pull-ups and call everybody fat and gay," Massie said.
Trump said he will continue to support Hegseth even if he is impeached. In recent days, Trump has also repeatedly touted the Pentagon’s accomplishments during his second administration.
"I'll stand by him," Trump said. "He won two wars."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Military strikes? A peace agreement? Trump opts for status quo in Iran
