President Donald Trump begins his final burst of midterm election campaigning in North Carolina trying to salvage his party’s chances in a state he won three times, but where polling shows the Democrat is up big in a key Senate race.
Fresh off a midterm convention in Texas where he sought to boost GOP enthusiasm and blunt Democrats' momentum in the battle for control of Congress, Trump is staging his first post-convention rally in Gastonia on Sept. 16 with GOP Senate candidate Michael Whatley.
The president’s handpicked former Republican National Committee chair, Whatley has struggled to gain traction in a race that could help determine if the GOP maintains its Senate majority.
Trump has bled support in North Carolina amid anxiety over the economy,
presenting a challenge for Whatley, who also is finding it difficult to breakthrough against a better-known opponent said Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll.
"The perceptions of the economy are reflecting on President Trump, and that in turn is dragging down Whatley," said Husser, who described the contest as a "really tough race" for the GOP.
The rally comes as Whatley trails Democrat Roy Cooper, North Carolina’s former governor, in the Real Clear Politics average of recent surveys by 7.8 percentage points, putting him in the worst position of any battleground Senate Republican.
Democrats seeking to flip four GOP-held seats to win control of the Senate are eyeing North Carolina as a top pick-up opportunity, pouring resources into the state and recruiting a candidate with a long record of winning statewide races. They are targeting an open seat after Republican Sen. Thom Tillis clashed with Trump and opted not to seek reelection.
As Cooper hammers on cost-of-living issues, Whatley has sought to shift the focus by targeting the former governor’s record on crime, and will receive an assist from Trump at the rally. The president's North Carolina trip will "highlight how his administration is restoring law and order across the country," according to White House spokeswoman Liz Huston.
Trump acknowledged that North Carolina is "a little more difficult case" for the GOP as he rallied Republicans on the first night of his midterm, saying "people don’t quite get it, but they’re going to find out."
Republicans on defensive in key Senate races
Yet North Carolina reflects the GOP’s broader midterm challenge. Republicans are defending a Senate map that looks favorable on paper, but face highly competitive races in states that Trump carried in all three of his presidential races.
Republican Senate candidates also are running behind in Texas and Ohio, states that Trump won by double digits in 2024. Trump’s low approval rating is threatening to drag down Republicans in Senate battlegrounds.
The president carried North Carolina by three percentage points on his way to winning a second term, but polling indicates most voters in the Tar Heel state disapprove of his performance as president, oppose the Iran war and rate the economy poorly.
Voters who take a dim view of the economy are strongly breaking toward Cooper, who is picking up disaffected Trump supporters, according to Husser’s polling. Among North Carolina voters who backed Trump in 2024, 10% support Cooper in Elon’s latest survey.
Another recent poll by Eastern Carolina University found that 43% of North Carolina voters view the economy and cost of living as the most important issue in the election, and Cooper is winning them by 33 percentage points.
"For Whatley to win this election, he will need to make up ground with these economically concerned voters," said Peter Francia, director of the university’s Center for Survey Research.
Whatley spokesman DJ Griffin said Trump's visit will help boost GOP voter turnout, and slammed Cooper as a "far-left radical." The Cooper campaign said in a statement that "it’s no surprise Whatley’s DC insider friends" are trying to "bail him out" and criticized Whatley on affordability issues.
Whatley faces uphill climb against Cooper
Whatley cruised to a primary victory with Trump’s endorsement, but has faced an uphill climb in the general election. According to the Elon survey, most North Carolina residents – including more than a third of likely voters – know little or nothing about Whatley, who chaired the North Carolina GOP before Trump picked him to run the RNC during the 2024 cycle.
Cooper, meanwhile, is widely known and viewed favorably by 53% of likely voters in the Elon survey after a long history in North Carolina politics, including four terms as attorney general and two as governor.
Both sides are pouring money into the contest in the final stretch, with Republican ad spending slightly outpacing Democrats, according to an analysis by AdImpact.
More than $100 million in additional campaign ads has been reserved for the last few weeks to try and jolt a race that has seen little movement in the polls.
A new GOP ad from the Senate Leadership Fund highlights the early release of 3,500 criminals from North Carolina prisons in 2020 during Cooper’s second term as governor. The release was part of a court settlement stemming from a lawsuit by civil rights groups during the COVID-19 pandemic, but Whatley has accused Cooper of being soft on crime.
Cooper allies have fired back, running an ad tying Whatley to a convicted sex offender who held a leadership role in the North Carolina GOP. Whatley also has been under fire after a convicted sex offender delivered the opening prayer at one of his campaign events.
Trump is likely to continue hammering Cooper on crime in Gastonia.
"Trump coming here can help boost Whatley’s familiarity and shift the agenda away from these economic issues that Cooper’s just beating Whatley on," Husser said.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump tries to salvage 'tough' North Carolina Senate race for GOP
