Process over results. That's what I was telling myself last week after writing up Bhayshul Tuten as having a bad Week 6 matchup. While he did rush for a season-low 39 yards, Tuten nearly doubled his previous career-high in receiving yards and caught his first two touchdowns of the season.
You can see I'm still tilted from that outcome, which is exactly what you want from a fantasy football columnist like myself: a relentless commitment to excellence.
Anyway, we have four more bye weeks to deal with (Bills, Jaguars, Commanders and Chargers) and fantasy managers lose three viable quarterbacks in Week 7 as a result (Josh Allen, Trevor Lawrence, Jayden Daniels) – though I do have a streaming recommendation this week for managers in a pinch at the
quarterback position.
Every week, I'll continue to identify and write up players that are not obviously starts or sits. Regardless of matchup, you're starting someone like CeeDee Lamb every week, so I try to go a few layers deeper than your early-round fantasy studs.
Note: Projections refer to player props in the betting and prediction markets, which are a valuable reference tool for anyone playing fantasy football.
Best Week 7 fantasy football matchups
Tanner McKee vs. the Cowboys
The Eagles new starting QB faces the Cowboys defense this week, a factory for passing fantasy production. The Cowboys are allowing a league-high 7.4 yards per pass play, due to a lack of talent in the secondary and a pass rush that simply hasn't gotten the job done.
Even with Saquon Barkley expected to return to practice on Thursday, Oct. 22, it's assumed that the Eagles are going to have to lean on fourth-string running back Dameon Pierce to ease Barkley back from his hamstring injury. The game plan for the Eagles is obvious and betting/prediction markets have taken note, with McKee projected for over 35 pass attempts in Week 7.
The Cowboys have allowed over 20 fantasy points to opposing passers in all but one game this year, when rookie Jalon Daniels drew the start over an injured Baker Mayfield.
Bucky Irving put on his Superman cape and ran for 165 yards in that matchup, so Daniels didn't need to throw much. Pierce, to my knowledge, does not own a Superman cape.
Still, Daniels averaged a hearty 7.6 yards per pass attempt in that game, and I believe McKee's a superior passer.
Woody Marks vs. the Giants
Marks faced the Jaguars last week, the absolute worst rushing matchup for running backs. Yet, Marks' 15 carries for 56 yards was the most by any runner against Jacksonville this year.
Jawhar Jordan handled six carries in that game but is now headed to Injured Reserve, and David Montgomery is still on the shelf with a groin injury. This sets up nicely for a heavy Marks workload on the ground.
This week, he faces a Giants run defense, the fourth-best rushing matchup of Week 7. New York's allowed 108 rush yards per game at 4.8 yards per carry to opposing backs, and with the Texans as hefty 10.5 point favorites, expect a surprisingly big day on the ground for the Houston runner.
DK Metcalf at the Saints
The Steelers and Saints meet in France this week, and while it's not the coveted Saints dome environment, weather is expected to be very mild on Sunday.
While rookie Germie Bernard has gotten the attention over the past two weeks, Metcalf has been solid in his own right. The veteran has commanded at least nine targets in four of six games, and this week should be another high usage outing.
Metcalf draws the third-best outside matchup of Week 7 and is projected for 58.5 yards as a result. For context, Garrett Wilson is projected for 63.5 yards against Miami.
The Saints cornerback duo of Kool-Aid McKinstry and Quincy Riley features two guys who have struggled all season, and both are under 6' tall. At 6'4", Metcalf presents a significant matchup problem for both.
Aaron Rodgers has averaged 270 passing yards and three touchdowns per game over the past month. Expect Metcalf to be the beneficiary of that production in France.
Tucker Kraft at the Lions
This is my favorite part of the week: starting fantasy tight ends against the Lions.
Detroit is allowing 10 receptions, 109 yards and two touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends (seriously). That's over 30 fantasy points per game, and more than 14 fantasy points above expectation after adjusting for opponents faced.
Aside from the matchup, Kraft is a regression candidate with his efficiency. After averaging over 10 yards per target in his first three seasons, he's at just 6.7 this season. Every week further removed from last year's ACL tear should help that efficiency, another factor working in Kraft's favor.
Kraft is a top-five fantasy option this week, and even has a higher yardage projection (50.5) than Sam LaPorta (48.5) in this game.
Worst Week 7 fantasy football matchups
Patrick Mahomes at the Seahawks
Wide receiver Rashee Rice is still not practicing this week, so the Chiefs should have a severely hamstrung (get it) receiving corps once again. Xavier Worthy and 37-year-old Travis Kelce is a below average duo, and no quarterback has even reached 200 passing yards against Seattle this season.
Mahomes hasn't run much this year either. After seven carries for 23 yards and a score in Week 1, Mahomes has just 34 rushing yards over the four games since. His fantasy production has largely been buoyed by multiple passing touchdowns or at least 270 passing yards in every game.
With so many fantasy quarterbacks on bye, it's tempting to start Mahomes. But he's outside the top-12 fantasy rankings this week with his matchup against Seattle.
For those who will inevitably ask, yes I'd rather start Mahomes over McKee. However, their pass yards props are within six yards of each other, and only one of these guys is currently available on every waiver wire.
Keenan Allen at the Vikings
The 34-year-old continues to add to his fringe Hall of Fame resume, as he's commanded at least nine targets in three straight games since the Alec Pierce injury. During this time, Allen's averaged over six catches, 60 yards, and nearly 15 fantasy points per game.
This is the week to stop riding that wave. The Vikings have shut down every wide receiver this year except Christian Watson and Matthew Golden. These two boast elite speed which Allen lacks, and they benefit from Jordan Love, a far better passer than Daniel Jones.
The Vikings defense is No. 1 in pressure rate, and Jones has been one of the NFL's worst quarterbacks when pressured. His completion rate is under 50% in these situations, and Jones has thrown just one touchdown to three interceptions with a paltry 52.9 rating under pressure.
You're better off flexing a tight end like Tyler Higbee than slotting Allen into your Week 7 fantays lineup.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 6 best and worst fantasy football matchups for Week 7
