Miami is moving into position to do something the program has never done before: win the ACC.
Since joining the league in 2004, the closest the Hurricanes have come to taking home the ACC was in 2017, when they won the Coastal Division before losing to Clemson in their lone appearance in the conference championship game.
Miami is the only ACC team still unbeaten in conference play and has a win in hand against the current second-place team, Wake Forest. Also in the mix for are Louisville, SMU, Duke and Clemson.
Not every team in the conference plays nine league games this season; Clemson plays eight, for example. That could make things more complicated. According to the new ACC tiebreakers issued in July, the first tiebreaker between teams that
played an alternate number of league games is conference winning percentage.
But there’s also the possibility the ACC breaks a multiple-team tie by using the “Team Success Ranking” provided by SportSource Analytics at the end of the regular season.
CONFERENCE TIEBREAKERS: ACC | Big Ten | SEC
With three weekends left in November, here are the tiebreaker scenarios that will decide which teams play for the ACC crown:
ACC tiebreaker scenarios
Contenders: Miami (6-0), Wake Forest (5-1), Louisville (5-2), SMU (5-2), Duke (4-2), Clemson (4-2).
Miami plays Duke this Saturday and then closes with Virginia Tech and Boston College. With a win in hand against Wake Forest and a multiple-game lead on Louisville and SMU, the Hurricanes can effectively secure a spot in the ACC championship game by beating the Blue Devils.
About the only way Miami doesn’t advance to the final conference championship is by losing to the Blue Devils and Hokies while Wake and Louisville win out. (Losing to BC isn’t worth considering.) In the scenario where the Hurricanes and Cardinals are tied for second place at 7-2, the ACC could break the tie by using the SportsSource ratings.
While Miami would probably land ahead of the Cardinals in those ratings, though there’s no way to be sure – both teams would have the same number of league wins and losses along with a competitive non-conference loss to a very strong Power Four opponent (Notre Dame and Mississippi).
Wake ends the year against SMU, Georgia Tech and Duke. This weekend’s matchup with the Mustangs might be the most impactful in the ACC down the stretch: SMU would be dropped from the mix with a loss but would leap ahead of the Demon Deacons with a win.
Should Wake lose to SMU and win out while the Mustangs and Louisville win out, leaving three teams in second place at 7-2, the ACC would again need to use the SportsSource ratings to break the tie. Wake has to lose again to open a clear path for Louisville because of the Deacons’ 30-27 win earlier this year.
The best-case scenario for the Cardinals is to win out while Wake falls to SMU and Duke. In that case, Louisville would face Miami because of the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Mustangs. In the same vein, SMU would play for a second ACC championship in three years by winning out while the Cardinals lose once. A win on Saturday would give SMU the tiebreaker over Wake.
Duke closes things out with a tough but potentially fruitful three-game run against Miami, Clemson and Wake Forest. Should they win out and Louisville lose once, the Blue Devils would advance over the Demon Deacons because of a head-to-head win.
How does Clemson reach the ACC championship game?
There are a few complicated ways for Clemson to book another trip to Charlotte. All demand a clean sweep from here, and not just of ACC matchups against Georgia Tech and Duke.
Because of the possibility that the SportsSource ratings come into play, the Tigers will also need to win the season finale against rival South Carolina.
Every scenario requires at least one Wake Forest loss. Two losses by the Demon Deacons would leave Wake at 6-3 in the ACC and play in Clemson’s favor. Since the Tigers would be 6-2, they’d have the advantage in conference winning percentage. The same metric would be used if Louisville loses once against North Carolina or Pittsburgh to also finish 6-3 in the conference.
Non-conference matchups this month could play a big role in deciding the ACC. In addition to Clemson taking on South Carolina, SMU faces Notre Dame and Louisville plays Kentucky.
Let’s imagine that Clemson wins out and Wake loses once while SMU and Louisville win their final two ACC games but lose to the Fighting Irish and Wildcats, respectively. That would leave Wake (10-2 and 7-2 in the ACC), Louisville (8-4 and 7-2), SMU (9-3 and 7-2) and Clemson (9-3 and 6-2) in a tie for second place.
While there’s no way of knowing at this point, there’s a chance the Tigers would be the highest-ranked option in the SportsSource ratings in part because of their strength of schedule.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: ACC football tiebreakers for conference title game are mess after Miami
