Playoff Predictor: Upsets turn CFP rankings into beautiful havoc

Have no fear, everyone. The College Football Playoff selection committee is on it. 

They’re built for this. 

Really, they are. This is exactly why the leaders of the sport moved to a selection committee instead of polls and/or computer rankings. Because a committee of a dozen or so humans can see the delicate differences between teams, and then make qualified, competent decisions ― no matter the chaos.

Hayes:

Indiana blew it against Ohio State. That’s exactly why I’m buying Curt Cignetti

Toppmeyer: Arch Manning is a Texas problem, and Steve Sarkisian is last to see it

Like Miami, currently using Wake Forest as its resume bell cow, avoiding a colossally bad loss to Florida State with help from ACC officiating.

Or Ohio State, whose strange win at Indiana

left Hoosiers coach Curt Cignetti in a blender. But let’s not forget the Buckeyes lost at Texas in September — the same Longhorns who have since lost to three-loss Oklahoma and two-loss Florida.

Or BYU, which beat Notre Dame with help from Big 12 officiating. But what exactly are the Irish — other than a team pumped full of preseason hype? Notre Dame’s best win to date is North Carolina. 

Or Tennessee, which lost at home to Texas last month, and had no wins of significance until it beat the brakes off Alabama.

And speaking of Alabama, the Tide now has two losses but likely has one more mulligan — because as we all know from CFP track record, three losses does not an Alabama afterthought make.

Then there’s Georgia, which lost at home to Auburn, which lost at home to Florida, which lost at home to South Carolina, which routinely loses SEC games at home. Until the Gamecocks beat Tennessee this week in Columbia, S.C. — because of course they will.

What does it all mean? We’ve got you covered with the USA TODAY Sports Playoff Predictor, sorting out the madness after the greatest weekend of upsets in a long, long time.

College Football Playoff rankings predictions

1. Miami: I’m starting to think the ACC may actually be holding a grudge against Florida State for the whole failed we’re leaving thing. Miami was simply the benefactor. Next: Pittsburgh.  
2. Georgia: If the Dawgs allow certain teams in the back half of the schedule to hang around too long, they’ll absorb a couple of more losses. Next: Bye. 
3. Ohio State: QB Julian Sayin is out indefinitely. Can Buckeyes coach Ryan Day figure out a way to get freshman Luke Fahey ready for a tough schedule? Next: Bye.  
4. Indiana: So many mistakes against Ohio State, so much missed opportunity. And I’d still take Indiana vs. anyone on a neutral field. Next: at Michigan. 
5. Ole Miss: Hard to believe this is the same team that got clobbered by Florida in late September. Or maybe they are, and will be exposed over the next three weeks of heavy lifting in the SEC. Next: at Texas. 
6. Tennessee: We’ve gone from coach Josh Heupel chose the wrong quarterback to start the season, to the Vols getting back to the CFP — in about three weeks time. Next: at South Carolina.
7. BYU: Love the story. Love Bear and Kalani and tough guy linebacker Cade Uluave. But this isn’t the best team in college football. Next: at UCF.
8. Notre Dame: Big 12 officials did a number on the Irish. Just like they did the BYU defensive backs dirty on multiple key plays. It all evens out. Next: Bye. 
9. UCLA: Much like BYU, I love the story. We need more of these in college football. But let’s see how Big Ten defenses scheme new QB Ty Dieffenbach — now that there’s FBS tape on him. 
10. Kentucky: Wilted in early big moment against Alabama, or we’d be staring at the greatest story of the season. Which can still happen. Next: Vanderbilt.    
11. Iowa: They’re going to lose again, even with the new — I can’t believe I’m writing this — efficient offense. I just can’t see where in the regular season. Next: at Minnesota.
12. Boise State: App State will take out unbeaten JMU on Thursday, and clear a large obstacle for Boise State to get another shot at winning a CFP game. Next: at Washington State.

First round byes

• Miami
• Georgia
• Ohio State
• Indiana

First round

• Boise State (12) at Ole Miss (5)
• Iowa (11) at Tennessee (6)
• Kentucky (10) at BYU (7)
• UCLA (9) at Notre Dame (8)

Quarterfinals

• Miami (1) vs. Boise State-Ole Miss winner
• Georgia (2) vs. Kentucky-BYU winner
• Ohio State (3) vs. Iowa-Tennessee winner
• Indiana vs. UCLA-Notre Dame winner

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB. Listen to him daily, from 12-2 p.m., on 1010XL-Jacksonville.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Playoff Predictor: Upsets turn CFP rankings into beautiful havoc