With just four days to go until the midterm elections, a trusted election forecaster said Oct. 30 it was shifting more than a dozen congressional races toward Democrats, suggesting the party has the potential to win its largest House majority in more than a decade.
The Cook Political Report
changed its predictions for 14 House and Senate races. The recent moves suggest Democrats could flip between 12 and 25 House seats.Throughout a given election cycle, the prognosticator sorts the likely outcome of senate, house and gubernatorial contests into “Solid,” “Likely,” “Lean” and “Toss-Up” for each party.
The most recent changes predict more than 220 House races favor Democrats. If the party wins all those seats, and 18 toss-ups, it would have a 240-seat
majority. Democrats need at least 218 seats to win the House majority.
The latest changes show Pennsylvania’s 1st District, a major swing district that includes Bucks County right outside Philadelphia, shifting from “lean Republican” to a toss-up. President Donald Trump won the area in 2024 and 2020, but narrowly lost it to former President Joe Biden in 2020.
South Carolina’s 1st District, which encompasses coastal areas outside of Charleston, and Colorado’s 5th District, comprising Colorado Springs, also moved from “lean Republican” toward toss-up.
Two other races, Ohio’s 9th District in the northwestern part of the state, and Pennsylvania’s 8th District, which includes Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, both shifted from toss-up to "lean Democrat." Since 2016, the two areas have been considered bellwethers for Trump’s popularity, particularly with White blue-collar voters.
Both Republicans and Democrats have framed the midterm elections as a referendum on Trump’s presidency. The president’s approval rating has been plummeting for months, amid a costly war in Iran and rising living costs.
As of Oct. 15, the Cook Political Report’s poll tracker showed Trump with a disapproval rating of 61.2%.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Cook Political Report shifts 14 races toward Dems ahead of midterms
