President Donald Trump is headed to Texas on Aug. 27, where he has a long history of support but Republicans face a tight Senate race.
Trump is scheduled to appear at an RNC event on Thursday night before a Friday, Aug. 28, ceremony, where he will award the Congressional Space Medal of Honor to the Artemis II crew members, according to the White House and NASA.
In recent months, Trump has made frequent domestic trips to join candidates as his party fights to retain control of Congress in November's midterm election. In Texas, Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and scandal-embroiled Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton are statistically tied in the race for U.S. Senate, according to a University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll published
Aug. 25.
Still, Texas is considered a deep red state that Trump won in all three presidential elections. Here's what to know about the state as the midterms approach:
What is Trump's approval rating in Texas?
Trump's approval rating is net negative in Texas, according to pollster calculations. Though Trump is not on the ballot, midterms are usually seen as a referendum on the presidency.
Morning Consult rolls up its poll results over a three-month period to calculate the state approval rating. Surveys conducted April 1-June 30 found 45% of registered voters in Texas approve of Trump's job performance, compared to 52% who disapprove.
The Economist uses weekly YouGov polls to make projections of the state-level approval ratings. In Texas, Trump is also in the red by a margin of 22 percentage points, according to The Economist.
Trump's average approval rating nationally sits at 38% approval and 59% disapproval as of Aug. 27, according to the New York Times polling aggregator.
How did the redistricting change the outlook in Texas?
While the 2018 midterms could act as a historical comparison to the upcoming midterms, this year is marked by a nationwide redistricting battle that started in Texas. Overall, Republicans have an advantage after redrawing their Congressional maps to add more Republican leaning seats.
Texas' new map could add two to five potential Republican seats, according to the New York Times.
How many seats did Republicans lose in the 2018 midterms?
In the 2018 midterm elections during Trump's first term, Republicans lost 41 House seats and gained two Senate seats, according to the American Presidency Project. (In the 2022 midterms under former President Joe Biden, Democrats lost nine House seats and won one Senate seat.)
In Texas, Democrats flipped two House seats, according to Ballotpedia: District 7, won by Rep. Lizzie Pannill Fletcher, who still holds the seat today, and District 32, won by former Rep. Colin Allred, who lost a Senate race against Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024 and is running for the House of Representatives again this fall.
In 2018, Democrats were also hopeful for a rising star candidate to flip a Senate seat. However, former Rep. Beto O'Rourke still lost to Cruz by a margin of about three percentage points.
What are the toss-up races in Texas?
In Texas, Cook Political Report rates the race for the 34th district of Texas, held by Democrat Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, to be a toss-up. The open Senate race between Talarico and Paxton is also considered a toss-up by Cook.
Contributing: Mateo Rosiles, USA TODAY Network
Kinsey Crowley is the Trump Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at KCrowley@usatodayco.com. Follow her on X (Twitter), Threads, Bluesky and TikTok.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump is headed to Texas. See state midterm election record, polling
