Tread lightly.
We’re 2-0 to open the season after surviving the Patriots +3.5 and a sweat-free 49ers +3.5 that turned into an outright win.
We can’t possibly stay this hot.
May as well try, though.
Five games. Five favorites.
I know. Gross.
Lions -6.5 vs. Saints
This is my favorite play of the five.
Detroit spent last season going from Super Bowl contender to spectator. After winning consecutive division titles, losing both coordinators and still starting 2025 hot, the Lions completely imploded and missed the playoffs.
Think Dan Campbell has mentioned that once or twice?
The Saints are a fun story. Maybe they really are ascending after winning four of their final five games last season. Tyler Shough showed promise as a rookie and now gets Travis Etienne Jr. alongside Alvin
Kamara, Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson.
Great.
Now go stop Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta at Ford Field.
New Orleans will also be without Cam Jordan, which isn't exactly ideal against an offense capable of burying teams once it finds a rhythm.
I don't expect the Saints to roll over. Shough has earned some optimism, and Kamara's return to practice is encouraging.
I just think this is a terrible place to ask New Orleans to prove its late-season surge was real.
Anything under a touchdown works for me.
Detroit has too many weapons, too much motivation and, ultimately, too much offense.
Oh, by the way: Campbell is 14-4 against the spread in September, while Goff is 8-1 ATS in season openers.
Time to get back to biting kneecaps.
Jaguars -8.5 vs. Browns
Look, I don't think the Jaguars are great.
Despite 13 wins last season, I'm not even convinced they're a playoff team in 2026.
This is about Cleveland.
The Browns are 3-19-1 in season openers since 2003 and now hand the keys back to Deshaun Watson for his first regular season action since 2024. He'll do it behind an offensive line featuring rookie Spencer Fano at left tackle, with Teven Jenkins out and Parker Brailsford questionable.
Have fun with Josh Hines-Allen.
Cleveland's weapons aren't exactly proven, either. Quinshon Judkins leads the backfield, Jerry Jeudy is the veteran receiver and rookies Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion will be asked to contribute immediately.
Jacksonville offers considerably more stability, led by Liam Coen, who is 7-2 ATS as a favorite in his young coaching career.
Trevor Lawrence has Brian Thomas Jr., Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers, and there's one particularly important defender he won't have to worry about.
Myles Garrett is gone.
Maybe Cleveland's reconstructed defense is better than expected. Maybe Watson turns back the clock.
That's a lot of maybes.
Jacksonville doesn't have to be great to win this comfortably. Against these Browns, competent may be plenty.
And if you need one more bit of convincing: Over the last decade, Cleveland’s 2-27 straight up as a road underdog of at least a touchdown.
Bears -3 at Panthers
The cardiac Bears spent last season with a horseshoe up their keister.
Chicago repeatedly found ways to win games it appeared destined to lose, so regression is a perfectly reasonable concern.
I'm just not convinced that means the Bears aren't good.
Ben Johnson has Caleb Williams surrounded by Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland and D'Andre Swift behind an experienced offensive line. Odunze is questionable with a calf injury, which bears watching (get it?), but Johnson said he's looked good in practice.
Carolina deserves some respect, too.
Dave Canales has taken the Panthers from two wins to five to eight and a playoff appearance. Bryce Young has improved and reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Tetairoa McMillan gives him a legitimate difference-maker.
But let's not get carried away.
Carolina hasn't posted a winning season since 2017. Last year's playoff berth came out of a weak division, and the Panthers haven't beaten Chicago since 2014.
They may eventually prove they're ready to take another step.
I'm making them show me first.
At -3, Chicago essentially needs to win the game, and Johnson’s group went 12-6-1 ATS last season.
Maybe the Bears don’t need quite as much late-game magic this time around.
Just win by four.
Chargers -8.5 vs. Cardinals
Biggest spread on the board.
Jim Harbaugh is 6-0 in NFL season openers, both straight up and against the spread.
Jacoby Brissett is 6-24 as a road underdog.
And, more than anything, one team is good and the other isn't.
Sometimes it really is that simple.
The fun part is we haven't even seen what Mike McDaniel has cooked up for Justin Herbert yet. Harbaugh hired one of football's most creative offensive minds and handed him a quarterback with all the physical ability in the world, plus healthy tackles Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt.
Arizona has some fun toys, too.
Trey McBride. Marvin Harrison Jr. Michael Wilson. And maybe Jeremiyah Love, who's made enough progress from his high ankle sprain to have a chance at making his NFL debut.
The problem?
Those weapons have to keep pace with Herbert while Arizona's defense tries to survive without defensive backs Garrett Williams and Dadrion Taylor-Demerson.
That's quite an assignment.
Could Love return, hit a couple explosive plays and keep this interesting?
Sure, but if Herbert and McDaniel hit it off immediately, this has all the ingredients for a rout.
A lot to a little.
Cowboys -2.5 at Giants
New coach. New offense. New season.
Same Cowboys?
That's the problem for New York.
Dak Prescott is 14-3 in his career against the Giants, and New York is 1-10 against Dallas in season openers.
John Harbaugh may eventually turn Big Blue around. I actually think there's plenty to like about Jaxson Dart, and getting Andrew Thomas back is enormous.
But we're supposed to believe everything changes immediately?
Malik Nabers practiced fully all week but remains questionable coming off ACL and meniscus surgery. More concerning, Nabers himself acknowledged Friday that he has to consider his long-term career before rushing back for Week 1.
Meanwhile, Prescott has CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
New York’s defense may need to order a couple extra oxygen tanks.
Dallas' defense was the problem last season, so the Cowboys did something about it, adding Rashan Gary, Von Miller and Caleb Downs to a unit already featuring Quinnen Williams and Kenny Clark.
I'm not pretending Dallas is flawless. Tyler Smith is out, and New York's defensive front is good enough to make Prescott uncomfortable.
But we're laying less than a field goal with a quarterback who has spent his career beating this opponent.
I'll believe the Giants-Cowboys dynamic has changed when I see it.
Until then, same Cowboys.
Kaufman's Card:
- Lions -6.5 (-122)
- Jaguars -8.5 (-108)
- Bears -3 (-110)
- Chargers -8.5 (-105)
- Cowboys -2.5 (-124)
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Best bets and expert picks for NFL Week 1 Sunday games
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