Oregon football's season isn't even halfway done, but it's already on the brink of death.
The Ducks find themselves in a position they haven't been too familiar with under Dan Lanning after a turnover-riddled performance doomed them against UCLA, losing, 17-15, to the Bruins at home for the first time since 2004.
At 3-2, Oregon has gone from national championship contender to suddenly looking like it might miss the College Football Playoff for the first time since 2023. That would be a cataclysmic result given this was, arguably, supposed to be the best Ducks team under Lanning.
It's now win-out mode the rest of the way for Oregon to even put itself in position to be in the playoff bracket.
"We’re fighting an uphill battle now," Lanning said after
the game. "Again, you can’t look 10 weeks ahead. You have to look at what’s in front of us right now. We don’t control our destiny anymore. It’s not necessarily just up to us, but we do control how we respond."
The record itself is pretty devastating, but what's led to the 3-2 mark hasn't been pretty, either. The close win over Boise State in the season opener wasn't seen as a troubling sign, but the brutal road loss to Oklahoma State was a real bad mark for the Ducks. The win over Southern California made up for some of that and Oregon could have gotten fully back on track against UCLA.
Saturday's game couldn't have gone any worse. Dylan Raiola struggled and got benched. The offense committed a whopping seven turnovers and scored just 15 points, its fewest since Lanning's first game in 2022 and lowest amount at Autzen Stadium since 2017.
Not only is this the first time Oregon has lost two games before the end of October under Lanning, but it hasn't looked good at all through five games. What's going on?
"I don’t know the answer as to why it hasn’t been great," Lanning said. "I think there have been moments and glimpses of where it has a chance to be really successful. I think that’s a good team we just played, and we were in a battle all the way down to the last series. I felt like, based on our preparation, this was going to be the game where all three phases really came together. Obviously, that didn’t happen with the offense today. It’s all come together for us quite a bit in the past. It hasn’t so far this year.
"We’ve got to continue to figure out what that looks like."
Lanning will have to figure it out fast, because Oregon now has zero room for error.
The current stretch for the Ducks is rather tough. They will welcome Nebraska next and, after a visit to Illinois, play a suddenly good Northwestern team. Right after that is what could be the game that decides the Ducks' entire season: a trip to Ohio State on Nov. 7.
With how Oregon has looked so far, there isn't much optimism things will be looking good by then.
There's still plenty of ball to be played, but in the short history of the 12-team playoff, we have yet to see a three-loss team make the field without a conference title automatic bid. That could change this season, but it's going to require a lot of help − and that you can't really control.
To keep any semblance of control over its own fate, Oregon has to win its remaining seven games, something that now seems a whole lot tougher than before the season kicked off.
Despite another setback, Lanning and the players aren't saying the season is over. They are still focusing on what's in front of them − not what happens if they lose again and their postseason dreams die.
But when you have the best team Phil Knight (and many others) can buy, you can't blame outsiders for already calling this a failed season. It's not over just yet, but the Ducks' pulse is getting weaker and weaker.
If things aren't fixed immediately, that flat line is going to pop up real soon.
"We’ve got to be better. We’ve got to find a way to be successful," Lanning said. "We’ve had a lot of success here for a long time for good reason. We haven’t been in this situation very much, and that’s credit to our players and the job they do, but we can do better."
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Are Oregon's College Football Playoff hopes dead? 'We’re fighting an uphill battle now'
