One of Texas's top statewide races has tightened for Democrats and another has shifted toward Republicans among likely voters, days before early voting begins.
An Oct. 14 Marist poll showed Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton are competitive, with only two points separating them among likely voters statewide in the Texas Senate race.
Talarico leads 47% to 45%, with 2% of likely voters saying they would vote for another candidate and 4% remaining undecided. Among registered voters, Talarico's lead widens to 4 points, 48% to 44% — down from 6 points in last month's Marist poll.
Among likely independent voters, 52% say they support Talarico, with 30% saying they support Paxton. A majority of likely voters statewide, 53%, think Paxton will
win the Senate seat — regardless of whom they support.
In the governor's race, Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49% to 45% among likely voters — a 4-point edge within the poll's margin of error.
Among registered voters, the two gubernatorial candidates are separated by 1 point. In Marist's September poll, Hinojosa led Abbott by 3 points among registered voters. Seven in 10 likely voters in Texas say they think Abbott will win.
Marist Poll's October survey of 1,196 Texas registered voters was conducted Oct. 8-11. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.3 percentage points for registered voters and 4.9 points for likely voters.
Recent James Talarico, Ken Paxton Texas U.S. Senate race polls
Here's what other October polls have shown. Early voting begins Oct. 19:
- UT/Texas Politics Project (Oct. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 47%.
- ReconMR (Oct. 13) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.
- UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) — Talarico 45%, Paxton 45%.
- YouGov poll (Oct. 6) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%.
- The New York Times (Oct. 3) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%.
- Fox News(Oct. 1) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%.
Recent Greg Abbott, Gina Hinojosa Texas governor's race polls
Here's what October polls showed:
- UT/Texas Politics Project (Oct. 13) — Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 48%
- ReconMR (Oct. 13) — Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 47%
- UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) — Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 44%.
- YouGov poll (Oct. 6) — Hinojosa 48%, Abbott 47%.
- The New York Times (Oct. 3) — Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 46%.
- Fox News(Oct. 1) — Abbott 52%, Hinojosa 47%.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Texas Senate, governor’s races diverge in new poll before early voting
