Fortune favors the bold.
There's no better time to be bold than ahead of Week 1 of the fantasy football season. There isn't any data to pull from heading into the 2026 NFL season, so the production expectations for every player are essentially anyone's guess.
Even after two games earlier in the week – the annual NFL Kickoff game on Wednesday, Sept. 9 and the game in Australia on Thursday, Sept. 10 – there's a full, 13-game slate on Sunday ahead. There's also a "Monday Night Football" game on Sept. 14 to close the book on Week 1.
With no bye weeks to contend with and only a couple of injuries, the world is fantasy managers' oyster. USA TODAY Sports has compiled a set of bold predictions ahead of the first Sunday of the 2026 NFL season.
BUSTS: 7 players to bench in Week 1
Bold predictions for Week 1 of fantasy football
Chiefs RB Kenneth Walker will outscore QB Patrick Mahomes
The reigning Super Bowl MVP joined Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense as one of the top free agents of the offseason. Upgrading the run game has been a clear priority for Kansas City a year after its quarterback finished with 422 rushing yards in 14 games – fifth-most of all quarterbacks, and only 40 fewer than teammate Isiah Pacheco.
Heading into Week 1, there are a couple of reasons the Chiefs will be looking to lean even harder on Walker and the run game. First, Mahomes is just making his return from a torn ACL and LCL he suffered in December and likely is not quite 100% just yet. Second, the Broncos had one of the best passing defenses in the NFL in 2025, though they were slightly more vulnerable against the run. Signs are pointing to a big week for Walker – or at least a bigger week than for Mahomes.
Makai Lemon will have the best rookie debut in fantasy
Reports from training camp have not been glowing for Lemon. But they also haven't been glowing for most rookies drafted early in 2026. Carnell Tate had zero catches on six preseason targets. Jordyn Tyson is going to miss the first few games of the season with a hamstring injury. Running back Jeremiyah Love is working through an ankle injury and could be limited in Week 1. Second-round pick and fantasy darling De'Zhaun Stribling was injured before seeing his first target in Australia.
The door is wide open for Lemon to make an impact in Week 1. Sure, he's also dealt with a hamstring injury in training camp and had limited production in the preseason as a result. But he's also listed as a starter for the Eagles in Week 1 and will get to face off against the Washington Commanders – one of the worst teams in pass defense from 2025 and missing standout corner Trey Amos. Lemon will be the secondary target at best for quarterback Jalen Hurts behind DeVonta Smith, but there should be plenty of targets to go around against this defense.
Kirk Cousins will be a top-15 QB
Cousins is the Week 1 starter for the Las Vegas Raiders – an expected outcome even after Las Vegas drafted Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick. Picking the veteran quarterback who only started eight games a year ago to be a top performer in fantasy to start the year is certainly bold. It's even more bold considering he'll be missing top passing target Brock Bowers in Week 1 after the tight end's knee procedure.
The main reason for this confidence is Cousins' Week 1 opponent. The Miami Dolphins' pass defense is straight-up bad. Pass-rusher Bradley Chubbwas a cap casualty this offseason, while Minkah Fitzpatrick was traded to the Jets. That was after the Dolphins dealt edge rusher Jaelan Phillips to the Eagles at the trade deadline last season. Miami's secondary is question mark after question mark. First-round pick Chris Johnson is promising, but Cousins will have a chance to feast in the Klint Kubiak-designed passing game once the run is established by running back duo Ashton Jeanty and rookie Mike Washington Jr.
Josh Allen will not be a top-20 QB
For all of the reasons Cousins appears due for a Week 1 feast, Allen appears due for a Week 1 famine. The Bills quarterback is the current betting favorite to win NFL MVP, according to BetMGM Sportsbook. He might win, given how productive he was last season – 3,668 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns and 14 rushing touchdowns – without a true No. 1 receiver. Now, he arguably has one with the Bills' addition of DJ Moore.
The Texans are so formidable on defense. They were No. 1 in limiting opponents' EPA on dropbacks in 2025, No. 2 in limiting success rate on dropbacks and No. 3 in limiting EPA on rushes. Their success rate allowed on rushes was the "worst" of the group, but that was still 37.7% – seventh in the NFL. This is not the cakewalk that the Baltimore Ravens' passing defense was in Week 1 of last year. Allen is going to have his work cut out for him, and Moore may not move the needle enough to believe in him making a dynamic difference to start the year.
Luther Burden will not be a top-40 WR
Burden was among the biggest fantasy darlings of the offseason, and it's easy to understand why. Of his final three games, two included six or more catches and more than 80 yards. His Week 17 performance might have won some fantasy championships with an eight-catch, 138-yard, one-touchdown outing. Over a full-season sample size, his 2.34 yards per route run ranked seventh in the NFL among wideouts with at least 40 targets. He was alongside CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens and Drake London.
So why so low on him in Week 1? For one, he hasn't turned those Y/RR numbers into real, sustained fantasy production. Burden was WR50 in terms of points per game in half-PPR leagues last year. He also started just five games last year. Sure, his numbers should see some boost with Moore's departure, but he's still going to be contending with Rome Odunze and tight ends Cole Kmet and Colston Loveland for targets.
Also, the Bears' Week 1 matchup is potentially more difficult than some are accounting for. The Panthers added two of the top defensive free agents to their roster – edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Devin Lloyd – after they quietly ranked in the top half of the NFL in total yards allowed in 2025. Chicago quarterback Caleb Williams will have to bring his "A" game to Carolina in Week 1, and it's no sure thing that Burden will be the beneficiary of an enhanced target share.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fantasy football bold predictions for Week 1 headlined by Luther Burden, Makai Lemon
