The 2026 NFL season is already approaching the end of its first month, giving bettors three weeks of action to evaluate teams, players and trends before Week 4 gets underway.
With another full slate of games on tap, the USA TODAY Sports staff is back to highlight the best bets for this weekend. Our picks went 2-3 with its Week 3 best bets and our experts are determined to deliver a winning week. Three weeks of information on player usage, injuries, matchups and defensive tendencies can provide valuable context when evaluating the latest odds.
Our NFL experts have once again searched across the betting board for opportunities worth considering, with selections spanning spreads, totals, player props and anytime touchdown markets. Whether you're
looking for a side to back, a total to target or a player prop with favorable circumstances, we'll break down the reasoning behind each pick.
As the Week 4 slate approaches, here are our best NFL bets for Sunday's games. As always, bet responsibly and make sure to shop around for the best available number. Best of luck if you tail.
Best bets NFL Week 4
All odds listed are provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a complete list.
Participating analysts: Nick Brinkerhoff, Jack McKessy, Jacob Camenker, Adam Kaufman, Tom Viera
Jets QB Geno Smith UNDER 0.5 interceptions at Bears (+110)
Nick Brinkerhoff: Quinshon Judkins got us into the win column last week. Geno Smith will get us into the green this week. And while no one likes to bet the under, this is one that is hard to ignore. Smith is experiencing a career revival as the Jets quarterback, which is almost an unbelievable thing to say, but the signal-caller is completing a league-high 75.5% of passes this season (min. 40 pass attempts).
And the games back it up. Smith isn't putting the ball in harm's way and hasn't tossed an interception through three weeks. For those keeping score at home, he already had four by this point last season with Las Vegas. It's a sign that not only is the Jets offense better, but also an indication of how well Smith is playing despite a mountain of injuries to the pass-catchers around him.
Now he gets a matchup with the Bears, who make a living off forcing turnovers. Unfortunately for Chicago, Smith has totaled just two turnover-worthy plays so far, per Pro Football Focus. And considering his success against the blitz this season, completing a league-high 83.3% of passes according to the NFL's Next Gen Stats, Chicago's pressure won't faze him. So the Bears can continue bringing the heat. Smith will keep picking apart defenses like no other quarterback has this season. The 35-year-old keeps the goose egg in the interception column for at least another week.
Colts WR Josh Downs OVER 70.5 receiving yards at Commanders (-112)
Jack McKessy: Jet lag won’t be a problem for the Colts to reckon with - unlike the Rams, the Indianapolis-based franchise made suitable flight plans to avoid that. And as a matchup, no team has been worse at defending the pass this year than the Washington Commanders.
Josh Downs is set up for a big day with both Alec Pierce (IR - heel) and Keenan Allen (out - groin) not playing. The Colts’ veteran wideout already stepped up in Pierce’s absence last week as target No. 1 for quarterback Daniel Jones, catching five of 11 targets for 77 yards against a much better Texans defense. With no Pierce or Allen to poach targets and against a weak Commanders’ secondary, Downs could have the sort of dominant outing that has been few and far between in his career so far (two 100+ yard games, zero multi-touchdown appearances).
Broncos RB J.K. Dobbins anytime TD scorer at 49ers (+120)
Jacob Camenker: Look, we're not going to pretend to be impressed by how Dobbins has looked to open the season. He's averaging just 3.5 yards per carry while his negative-0.21 EPA per rushing attempt ranks 32nd among 44 qualified running backs to open the season, per the NFL's Next Gen Stats.
But while Dobbins hasn't been all that effective or explosive, he is getting a bulk of Denver's carries. The veteran has toted the rock 35 times while his primary backup, RJ Harvey, has just five carries to his ledger. Dobbins should continue seeing that type of volume as long as fourth-round rookie Jonah Coleman, Denver's other between-the-tackles option, remains sidelined by an ankle injury.
That will give Dobbins a chance to find his way into the end zone against a 49ers defense that is dealing with a stack of injuries across the defensive line.
Ravens -6.5 first half vs. Titans (-125)
Adam Kaufman: We know how popular the Baltimore Ravens will be this week. They're back home off a dramatic final-seconds win in Brazil and favored by two scores against the winless Titans in Derrick Henry's revenge game. That's right, Henry still hasn't seen his old team since joining the Ravens. This should be a bloodbath, which is why so many people will be flocking to Baltimore in survivor.
How am I playing it? I'm leaning into the trends. Give me the Ravens to cover the 6.5 points in the first half. Baltimore is 3-0 both straight-up and against-the-spread in the opening half this year, while Tennessee is 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in the first 30 minutes of its games. I don't know if the Ravens will win by two touchdowns, but I like them to set the tone early.
Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan anytime TD scorer vs. Lions (+160)
Tom Viera: A win with our best bet continues to elude us, but we're not giving up hope and the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year is who we have in our sights. The touchdown train will be waiting all day for Sunday night. Yes, McMillan is off to a slow start, but this week's matchup points to a breakout.
Tet McMillan stands at 6-5, while Detroit doesn't have a single player in its secondary listed above 6 feet tall. McMillan has three end zone targets this season and no receiver has more red zone targets without a touchdown. The Panthers can use the height advantage in the red zone this week. The Lions secondary has been the most generous to opposing pass catchers, allowing a league-high 979 yards and the second-most receiving touchdowns (9).
The 23-year-old has caught just 12 of his team-high 23 targets but something stood out in last week's game. Head coach Dave Canales had McMillan run a career-high 15 routes from the slot in the Panthers' Week 3 loss to the Cleveland Browns. Not much came of it, but with Xavier Legette injured and Jalen Coker nursing a quad injury, quarterback Bryce Young will be forced to lean on his top target even more. Trust Tet to find paydirt in what projects to be a high-scoring affair.
Best bets overall records:
- Nick Brinkerhoff: 1-2 (-1.0 Units)
- Jack McKessy: 2-1 (+2.16 Units)
- Jacob Camenker: 3-0 (+4.45 Units)
- Adam Kaufman: 0-3 (-3.0 Units)
- Tom Viera: 0-3 (-3.0 Units)
Super Bowl 61 odds
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL Week 4 best bets: Experts favorite picks and player props for Sunday
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