The AFC South doesn't typically command the spotlight this early in the season, but Sunday's tilt between the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts could carry far more weight than an ordinary Week 3 game.
Both teams enter at 0-2, meaning one will leave with its first win while the other will fall into a 0-3 hole - barring a tie - that history says is extremely difficult to escape. Since the NFL expanded to a 14-team playoff field in 2020, no team that started 0-3 has reached the postseason. In fact, only four teams since 1990 have managed the feat, with the 2018 Texans being the most recent. For two teams with playoff aspirations entering the season, Sunday suddenly feels enormous.
The Colts, however, showed in Week 2 that their record doesn't tell the entire story. Indianapolis took the Kansas City Chiefs to overtime at Arrowhead before ultimately falling on a last-second field goal. Jonathan Taylor has continued his dominant form, rushing for 190 yards and four touchdowns on 43 carries through two games while adding seven catches for 63 yards. There is some concern, however, after Alec Pierce suffered a heel injury that will sideline him for several weeks. Losing one of the league's premier big-play threats could make it tougher for Indianapolis to attack downfield consistently.
Houston's defense, meanwhile, has plenty to prove after struggling against Josh Allen and Joe Burrow in consecutive weeks. Now, the Texans get a chance to rediscover the identity that made their defense so formidable. Nico Collins' hamstring injury adds another wrinkle for Houston, but with both teams desperate to avoid 0-3, this enormous AFC South clash could be one of the sneakiest fun games of Week 3.
Texans at Colts live odds
Opening Lines
- Spread: Texans -2
- Moneyline: Texans -125; Colts +110
- Over/Under: 42.5
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Texans at Colts picks against the spread
Adam Kaufman: Texans -2
Both AFC South rivals are 0-2, extending Indianapolis' losing streak to nine games. This is an immensely important game. Houston somehow lost 20-6 despite C.J. Stroud throwing for 353 yards, Dalton Schultz catching 12 passes for 140 and the defense recording five sacks. That level of production should eventually translate to touchdowns. Nico Collins' hamstring injury is concerning, but David Montgomery should rebound against a vulnerable run defense. Indianapolis played well at Kansas City, but Alec Pierce is now on injured reserve and Houston's pass rush can pressure Daniel Jones. Give me the more complete team to avoid 0-3 and cover the short road number.
Tom Viera: Texans -2
Houston's defense has taken its lumps but this is the perfect spot for a bounce-back performance. The Colts have leaned heavily on Jonathan Taylor and Alec Pierce's absence could make them even more one-dimensional. That plays right into Houston's hands. If the Texans can force Daniel Jones to win this game through the air, their defense should have the advantage. Nico Collins may or may not return but C.J. Stroud still has enough weapons to move the ball against an Indianapolis defense that couldn't stop Baltimore or Kansas City. The Texans will get in the win column.
Nick Brinkerhoff: Texans -2
Barring the unlikely event of a tie, someone is going to get a win this week when the Colts host the Texans. And we're going to trust the better defense to get the job done and put Houston into the win column. The Colts just gave everything they had in Kansas City, losing to the Chiefs in overtime on 'Sunday Night Football.” Indy might be hungry for its first win in well over 300 days and Houston might be struggling to score, but these teams are on different levels. The Texans take care of business on the road.
Blake Schuster: Colts +2
This is a fun spot for a home dog in a division rivalry game and which always tend to be closer than you'd expect. Indy figured some things out against the Chiefs in Week 2. And even a marginally better passing game from the Colts should open things up for Jonathan Taylor against a stingy Texans rush defense.
Where to watch Texans at Colts
- Matchup: Colts vs. Texans
- Date: Sept. 27
- Time: 1 p.m.
- Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
- Location: Indianapolis, Indiana
- TV: CBS
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Colts vs Texans spread predictions, odds for NFL Week 3 game
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