As early voting continues in Texas, a new Fox News poll shows the state's top-ticket race is tied.
Fox News released its poll on Oct. 21, showing Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 49% each among likely Texas voters in the nationally watched Texas Senate race.
This marks a drop from Talarico's two-point lead, 51% to 49%, in Fox News'previous poll. The Fox News poll notes the shift comes from Paxton consolidating support among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women and voters who backed U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the primary.
Here's what the poll found and how it compares with other recent October polling.
Ken Paxton, James Talarico are in a dead heat in Texas Senate race
The Fox News poll was conducted Oct. 15-19 among 2,011 registered Texas voters and 1,398 likely voters. The margin of
error is 2 percentage points for registered voters and 2.5 points for likely voters.
Democratic polling firm Beacon Research and Republican polling firm Shaw & Company Research also jointly directed the poll.
The poll found that while Paxton is falling short of Trump’s 2024 margins, he has gained a little support among both men (+1) and women (+1) since September, while Talarico has slightly lost support (-1 and -2, respectively).
The poll also found the key bases each candidate is drawing a majority of their support from.
For Talarico, Black voters (+65 points), urban voters (+29), those under age 30 (+28) and women with a college degree (+23) are breaking for him. For Paxton, White evangelical Christians (+52), White men without a college degree (+32), rural voters (+21) and those age 65 and up (+18) are breaking for him.
Looking at the Hispanic vote in the state, the poll found that Hispanic voters are swinging back toward the Democrats. After backing former President Joe Biden by 25 points in 2020, they favored Trump by 1 point in 2024, according to the Texas Fox News Voter Analysis.
Now, the closely watched voting bloc favors Talarico by 30 points, 64% to 34%, and prefers Democratic control of the U.S. Senate by 29 points.
Talarico is also seeing stronger party loyalty — another factor making the race competitive. The poll found 98% of Democrats support Talarico, compared with 90% of Republicans supporting Paxton. Nearly 3 in 10 non-MAGA Republicans are crossing party lines to back Talarico.
"The race is going to come down to two basic questions," said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps conduct the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. "Do disaffected Republicans show up and, if so, do they grit their teeth and vote for a candidate who they have serious reservations about?"
Recent Texas U.S. Senate race polls
Here's what other October polls have shown:
- U of H Hobby poll(Oct. 18) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%
- Marist poll (Oct. 14) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%.
- UT/Texas Politics Project (Oct. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 47%.
- ReconMR (Oct. 13) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.
- UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) — Talarico 45%, Paxton 45%.
- YouGov poll (Oct. 6) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%.
- The New York Times (Oct. 3) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: New poll shows deadlocked Texas Senate race as early voting continues
