After five meetings spent on the sidelines, Federal Reserve policymakers are widely expected to raise their benchmark for interest rates for the first time in three years today.
Although a hike is not guaranteed, many forecasters are betting stubborn inflation still above the Fed’s 2% target, oil prices above $100 per barrel, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s commitment to deliver price stability will push officials to raise the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point. If they do, that will bring the target range for short-term interest rates to 3.75% to 4%.
The Federal Open Market Committee typically raises the range to help slow the pace of rising prices. Warsh said on Aug. 28 that recent inflation reports did not signal that “underlying
trends have improved” and added the Fed will have “work to do” if fresh data didn’t show an improvement. After the Labor Department’s Sept. 8 inflation report showed consumer prices again rose again in August, more traders began betting on a hike.
But the rate-setting committee faces “a catch-22,” according to Paul Eitelman, Russell Investments’ global chief investment strategist.
“It wants to show it is serious about inflation, but higher rates are unlikely to address the forces currently pushing prices higher,” Eitelman said in a note to USA TODAY, citing tariffs, energy costs, and the AI buildout.
For now, the target range stands at 3.5% to 3.75%. Policymakers will unveil their rate decision at 2 p.m. ET, and Warsh’s news conference is scheduled to begin at 2:30 p.m. ET.
When is the last time the Fed changed rates?
07:53 AM ET, September 16 2026, Rachel BarberFed policymakers last changed the federal funds rate in December 2025, concluding a three-meeting streak of quarter-point cuts that began in September. At that time, U.S. employers had added an estimated 22,000 jobs and year-over-year consumer price inflation stood at 2.9% in August.
The last time the committee raised the federal funds rate was in July 2023. The month before that decision, U.S. employers added an estimated 209,000 jobs and year-over-year consumer price inflation stood at 3%.
What time is the Fed rate decision today?
07:49 AM ET, September 16 2026, Rachel BarberFollowing the second day of the Federal Open Market Committee’s September meeting, policymakers are expected to release their rate decision at 2 p.m. ET. Warsh’s news conference is scheduled to follow at 2:30 p.m. ET.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Interest rate decision live: Fed weighs first hike since 2023
