It’s time to come to grips with hard truths about Arch Manning, one particular reality more disturbing than all others.
Is the Texas and Manning marriage over after this season — and where does Manning go if it is?
If you don’t think we’re trending that way, consider this: Manning wasn’t the best quarterback on the field last week when Texas was upset by Florida.
A redshirt freshman making his first career start was.
But no matter how we analyze and scrutinize the recruiting and development of Manning, how we take the easy road and proclaim he’s a product of one of the greatest names in college football history (he’s not), his future in the game is far from set.
Don’t
automatically think the easy out is leaving for the NFL Draft. He’s eligible, but the 19 games as a starter over the past two seasons haven’t exactly elevated his draft stock.
“Someone might take him in the third or fourth round right now. But a 1? No chance,” an NFL scout told USA TODAY Sports. “There’s any number of issues. Decision-making and arm strength at the top of the list.”
That doesn’t mean Manning wouldn’t still leave for the NFL, because it only takes one of 32 teams to like him. But it does look like unless he turns things around quickly, this could be his last season at Texas.
That could mean Manning in the transfer portal at the end of the season, searching for a fresh start and a new environment. Don’t think it can’t or won’t happen.
It may be the best for all involved.
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian can’t afford to continue to invest time and coaching capital into Manning without significant return. Can’t watch him throw away a monster rivalry game one week, and then be outplayed by Florida backup quarterback Tramell Jones Jr. — who did it without injured No. 1 receiver Vernell Brown III.
Can’t watch Jones — and this is the hardest part to choke down — make better decisions with the ball and not think it’s time to try someone else when Ole Miss rolls into town Saturday.
Sarkisian says Manning is his starter, and that backup KJ Lacey will still get his typical first-team repetitions in practice. Nothing is different, he insists.
How could it not be?
Two weeks ago, Sarkisian was defending Manning, saying if his name were Joe Smith, he would be praised for beating four Top-10 teams in his past 13 starts — rather than criticizing him.
Minutes after the Florida loss, while sitting in a post-game news conference, Sarkisian said everything would be evaluated. When asked if that meant the quarterback, he replied, “Everything.”
On Monday, Sarkisian said: “We need to see a better version of him in practice and in the game. Ultimately, the player is in there. It’s our job to get it out.”
Sarkisian hasn’t forgotten how to coach, and isn’t asking Manning to do more than he can handle. He isn’t calling poor plays, or putting the offense in tough down-and-distance situations.
The offensive line has struggled at times this season, and protection is an issue. But the easy throws are there for Manning, the profit throws that move an offense and set up bigger throws.
Manning is either missing them or choosing more difficult throws, negatively impacting both the offense and the game. The question is why?
Is he a product of the Manning name, and just not at the same level? Or is he not a fit with Sarkisian?
Either way, this marriage won’t last if Texas keeps losing. There are too many options in the transfer portal, and Texas has too much money to not make a move and find a better quarterback.
If the Longhorns don’t reach the College Football Playoff, Manning will have to make a decision. Stay and compete for a starting job in 2027, or enter the transfer portal and get a fresh start somewhere else.
It may be best for all involved.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB. Listen to him daily, from 12-2 p.m., on 1010XL-Jacksonville.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Arch Manning’s Texas experiment is failing. Is a breakup next? | Opinion
