Of all the jobs on a bloated college football staff, is there no “odds coach” who could’ve talked sense into Ryan Day?
I don’t have the percentages in front of me — an “odds coach” could help with that — but I know this: I’d rather be trailing by one point, with possession of the ball, a minute to play, and a timeout in my pocket, than down by a point, with possession, 25 seconds and no timeouts.
The former is what would’ve happened if Day had opted to let Texas score, uncontested, on 1st-and-goal from the Ohio State 1-yard line. Instead, Day thought his Buckeyes could stuff Texas four times in a row.
They got two stops, and Day burned his last timeout in the process. When Texas punched it in on third down, Ohio State had no timeouts and just 25
seconds to get into field-goal range.
In other words, game over.
“We talked about it, and decided that we were gonna play defense on second down (instead of letting Texas score),” Day told reporters after Ohio State's fourth-quarter collapse in a 24-23 loss to Texas.
Second down? Buddy, you should’ve let ‘em score on first down.
Kirk Herbstreit mentioned that option on 1st-and-goal. Too bad the ABC broadcast feed wasn’t pumping into Day’s headset.
Ryan Day has a loss to rival 2022 Sugar Bowl
True, if Ohio State had stopped Texas four times in a row from the 1, we’d be talking about Day’s gutsiness and his belief in his defense.
Never mind guts, though. This is math, and it’s just tough to argue.
Your chances are better trailing 24-23 with 60 seconds to go, plus a timeout, as compared to 24-23, no timeouts and 25 seconds left.
Seems obvious, right? Or, at least it would be to an "odds coach." Just not to a highly paid college football coach.
Remember this as the biggest choke-job of Day’s career.
He finally endured a collapse even worse than Ohio State blowing a 14-point fourth-quarter lead in the 2022 Sugar Bowl. Three years prior to that, Day’s Buckeyes blew a 16-point lead against Clemson in playoff semifinal.
Now, here’s a collapse to trump them all, even if the result isn’t as damaging.
When Georgia rallied past Ohio State in that 2022 Sugar Bowl, it meant Day had to wait two more years to win a national championship.
Thanks to a playoff big enough to accommodate two- and maybe even a three-loss teams, this result isn’t as damaging, but it’s more appalling.
Ryan Day after Ohio State blows it: 'This one hurts.'
How’s this for some math? ESPN gave Ohio State a win probability of more than 98% when it led by 20 points ahead of the fourth quarter.
“We have to win the fourth quarter,” Day said, “… and we didn't do that.”
Arch Manning and Texas stole it. Day and the Buckeyes blew it.
“This one hurts,” Day said.
On the other side, jubilation.
Manning’s Heisman odds improved, especially when you pair this result with Dante Moore and Oregon withering in a stunning loss to Oklahoma State. The Texas quarterback raced around the field afterward with a look of unbridled joy on his face, as if he understood he’d supplied a signature victory and a comeback that could start to alter his legacy — and that of his coach, Steve Sarkisian.
If you think Day handled the end-of-game situation correctly, you’re probably pointing out the Buckeyes only mustered three points after halftime, and their second-half offensive sputter included two three-and-outs. You’d point out Connor Hawkins already missed a field goal from 45 yards in the fourth quarter that could’ve sealed the victory.
Even so, I’d take my chances with 60 seconds of game time, a timeout, and the best wide receiver in college football on the field. Granted, if Jeremiah Smith would’ve secured Julian Sayin’s deep shot on third down, ahead of Hawkins’ missed field goal, the Buckeyes wouldn’t have needed any last-minute heroics. Smith looked sensational for 2½ quarters, but he didn’t have another reception in the final 24 minutes.
As Ohio State’s lead dwindled, it forced Day to make a stressful decision. He made the wrong call. What are the odds?
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's senior national college football columnist. Listen to his podcast, "College Football Unfiltered." Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ryan Day faced a choice for Ohio State. He made a terrible call | Opinion
