TEL AVIV − Ronen Keler feels he owes it to his grandfather to stay in Israel. His grandfather, a Jewish physician, fled Berlin in 1933 as the Nazis consolidated their grip on power in Germany, seeking refuge in what was then British-administered Palestine.
But 93 years later, Keler is thinking of retracing his grandfather's steps in reverse, abandoning modern-day Israel for Germany.
Keler hasn't made up his mind. He's fortunate. He and his wife hold dual citizenship. He's a former tech executive who now advises and invests in start-ups. He can afford to leave. Not every Israeli can.
But Keler is torn. His grandfather made great sacrifices to play his part in establishing the Jewish state in 1948. Like many Israelis, Keler feels deeply connected
to the idea of Israel as a safe haven and national home for Jews.
His decision will depend on the outcome of Israel's neck-and-neck Oct. 27 election. Final polls suggest that neither incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's nationalist and religious bloc nor a rival alliance of parties led by former Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot will win enough seats to form a government on its own. That process could take days, weeks or even months.
"My grandfather asked himself if Germany was the right place to raise his family. He concluded it was not. My kids are now grown and out of the house. However, I am still asking myself similar questions," Keler, 63, said.
Many Israelis, depending on their politics, are asking themselves similar questions as the country reckons at the ballot box with issues that will determine its future character.
Netanyahu, 77, wants to double down on changes to Israel's courts and judicial system that Israelis like Keler view as a direct attack on democracy and government accountability. They also want Netanyahu to take responsibility for the security failures that led to Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack and for Israel's conduct in the subsequent war in Gaza. They want him held accountable over the charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust he faces in a long-running corruption trial − all of which he denies.
"Do you want children to be in schools that are ultra-nationalist or ultra-orthodox? Do you want them to run the ministry of education? Do you want civil servants to be anti-democratic? This is what we are voting on," Keler said.
A few days before the vote, Keler attended a protest in Tel Aviv, where thousands of supporters of The Democrats party − led by Yair Golan, a former major general in the Israel Defense Forces − were holding a rally.
The Democrats are part of the opposition alliance seeking to form a government under Eisenkot. Golan addressed the crowd, whose members waved large Israeli flags and held banners and signs bearing slogans such as "Let the sunshine in on Oct. 27" and "A change is gonna come," a reference to the song by American singer-songwriter Sam Cooke.
A handheld projector beamed a large cone of light onto nearby buildings, displaying a message: "We are hope."
Golan told those assembled in downtown Tel Aviv: "In winter, in the rain, in the sun, we protested. We blocked roads. We marched. We fought. We were arrested. We were injured. We kept coming back. We weren't afraid. We didn't stay silent. We didn't give up."
Keler served as a submarine captain in Israel's navy before embarking on his business career. He still trains young Israeli soldiers. Since January 2023, he has been helping to organize these rallies, and others like them, alongside thousands of fellow reservists.
"I've been almost four years in the streets. I've been waking up at four o'clock in the morning to demonstrate or to do something. I'm tired. I'm close to retirement. I'm not sure I can fully leave Israel. Maybe my wife and I could spend 70% of our time in Europe?" he said.
A country at risk of losing its talent
There are no official statistics on how many Israelis would consider leaving if the election returns Netanyahu to power rather than ushering in an opposition government that would, at least in theory, pursue more moderate policies, according to Itai Ater, a professor of economics at Tel Aviv University.
But he was certain such figures, if available, would be "terrifying, really scary."
Israelis have already been leaving the country in record numbers over the last three years since the Oct. 7 attacks, which deeply traumatized Israelis. About 50,000 each year, compared to a benchmark in a "regular" year of 30,000, according to Ater's research.
The number of Israelis returning after extended periods living and working abroad has also fallen sharply. Among those emigrating, Ater said, there has been a notable rise in the number of doctors, engineers, academics, tech executives and high-income earners.
"This is a big concern for the economy and for Israel's future."
Under Israeli electoral law, most citizens living overseas cannot vote in Israel's elections while abroad. Exceptions include certain government employees and representatives of organizations such as the Jewish Agency, which promotes Jewish immigration to Israel, known as "aliyah," as well as qualifying family members.
Other Israelis living abroad must return to Israel to cast their ballots.
There are no official figures for how many expatriate Israelis are expected to make the journey, but Ater estimated that 70,000 to 80,000 Israelis would return from across the diaspora to vote.
The AID Coalition, a U.S.-based nonprofit that promotes democracy in Israel, expects many of them to be Americans − as many as 50,000.
Israeli-American national security researcher Shira Efron's brother is one of them. He flew in from Los Angeles.
"People are paying thousands of dollars and flying a gazillion number of hours just to vote, even though they haven't lived here for many, many years," she said. "The idea of a Jewish state is really fundamental to our identity. It's existential, in a sense. We have to have a Jewish state even if we don't live there."
Efron said many people she knows have left Israel because of Netanyahu's policies. She's not sure whether to characterize this as "giving up on Israel," but she expects another wave of people to pack up and depart if the government doesn't change.
Her family could be among them.
"We moved back here six years ago. We're in a rental house. Six months ago, we thought of buying and then thought: 'No, we're going to wait for the next election.' It got to the point where we wanted to buy a new barbecue, one of those large Weber ones. We didn't buy it. We decided we weren't going to buy anything that we couldn't pack in a suitcase."
Still, not all Israelis share this anxiety over the vote's outcome. In fact, many don't.
Yotam Eyal is ultra-Orthodox. He's a lawyer and TV commentator who lives in Givat Harel, a settlement in the occupied West Bank. He built a house on land claimed by Palestinians.
Eyal, 37, believes Israel needs to rigorously preserve its conservative Jewish values and identity. He supports attempts by Netanyahu and his coalition partners to weaken the power of Israel's judiciary.
He believes Israel's courts are dominated by left-leaning values and policies.
"First of all, I think it's both an extreme step to take, and all talk. It's easy to say you'll leave. Most won't."
And anyway, he added, "they can say whatever they want. But they will have a connection to Israel because this is the Jewish place."
Kim Hjelmgaard is an investigative journalist covering global stories for USA TODAY, from living rooms to conflict zones. He is based in London.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Election anxiety drives some Israelis to consider exit − for good
