Fall is coming, and Pittsburgh can expect to see its first frost of the season within the next month or so.
The Farmers' Almanac recently released its first frost forecast for the 2026-27 fall and winter season. According to the almanac, Pittsburgh and much of Pennsylvania can expect to see frost by next month.
Here's when the Steel City expect frosty weather before winter sets in.
When will Pittsburgh see its first frost this fall?
Pittsburgh will likely see its first frost sometime between early to late October, with the almanac predicting the city is most likely to experience its first frost on Oct. 22. Most of Pennsylvania can expect its first frost within that same timeframe, save for areas of the state near the Maryland and New Jersey borders, as well as the southernmost edge near the West
Virginia border. Those parts will likely see their first frost sometime between late October to mid November.
Pittsburgh's average first frost day is Oct. 15, based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data, the almanac said.
How cold does Pittsburgh get in the fall?
The average temperature in Pittsburgh from September to November typically ranges from 52–58 degrees Fahrenheit, though it occasionally dips slightly lower, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.
How does the Farmers' Almanac predict the weather?
According to its website, the almanac uses a mix of sunspot cycles, lunar position, tidal pull, and historical pattern weighting to make its long-range forecast.
Frost conditions are ideal when air temperatures are around 33 to 36 degrees under calm conditions, according to the almanac. Freezing begins at 32, and most unprotected vegetation will be killed around 24 or lower.
How accurate is the Farmers' Almanac?
The almanac has been making forecasts since 1818. It reports 80% to 85% accuracy on regional outlooks.
Others equate predictions made by almanacs to the accuracy of a flip of a coin: A University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign study done in 2010 found that 51.9% of the monthly precipitation forecasts and 50.7% of the monthly temperature forecasts were accurate.
Meteorologists often caution that forecasts made several months in advance carry significant uncertainty, especially at the local level.
When is the first day of fall 2026?
Fall will begin on Tuesday, September 22, 2026, when we reach the autumnal equinox (also known as astronomical fall), according to Old Farmer's Almanac.
Finch Walker is the Pittsburgh Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Contact Walker at FWalker@usatodayco.com. Instagram: @finchwalker_. X: @_finchwalker.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fall is coming, and history reveals when Pittsburgh may see first frost
