With the midterms just one week away, Republicans are playing defense while Democrats are riding high.
But the real test will come Nov. 3, when votes will be counted in the states and districts that decide control of Congress.
Republicans hold a narrow majority in the House, where they control 218 seats to Democrats' 214. In the Senate, the GOP's majority sits at 53-47. Democrats had long been expected to gain control of the House, given the historical trend of the president's party losing seats in the midterms, the current narrow margins and the overall national mood. But more recently, polls and political analysts have predicted that the Iran war, rising costs and President Donald Trump's low approval ratings have also put the Senate squarely
in play.
At stake is whether the next two years will feature legislative gridlock, investigations of Trump and his allies, or an extension of the president's agenda.
Here are some of the races to watch next week.
The Senate toss-up races that will decide its majority
Fewer than 10 Senate races are expected to decide the fate of the chamber – a list that has grown as Democrats pushed into traditionally red territory.
In the races for Senate, the nonpartisan elections handicapper Cook Political Report calls Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas "toss up" races as of Oct. 22. Of that list, Michigan is the only seat currently held by a Democrat.
- Alaska: Former U.S. Rep Mary Peltola is running as a moderate Democrat to oust Trump ally Sen. Dan Sullivan. Also in the race is a second man by the name of Dan Sullivan. While Sullivan prevailed by 12 points in 2020, Peltola has brought the race within striking distance, with a the Alaska Survey Research group reporting she leads by 2 points.
- Iowa: Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is not running for reelection, leaving Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson defending the seat against Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek. An Oct. 7 poll showed Turek with a narrow lead in the state that Trump carried by 13 points in 2024.
- Kansas: A Democratic pastor from the Kansas City area, Adam Hamilton, is hoping to unseat Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, who has faced controversy for suing patients for debt during his time as an obstetrician-gynecologist. A Democrat hasn't won a Senate race in Kansas since 1932, but a September poll showed Hamilton ahead by 2 points.
- Maine: Republican Sen. Susan Collins is seeking her sixth term in the upper chamber. The chair of the powerful Senate Appropriations Committee, which allocates federal funds, has long been a top target of Democrats. This year, she is running against Democratic logger Troy Jackson, after the original Democratic nominee, Graham Platner, dropped out of the race following sexual assault allegations that he denies. Polls for the Maine race have varied but show a tight contest.
- Michigan: The progressive Democratic candidate, public health official Abdul El-Sayed, and Republican Trump ally, former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers, are battling it out to fill Michigan’s open Senate seat after Democratic Sen. Gary Peters retires. El-Sayed has become a focal point of Republican criticism this midterm cycle, largely for his connections to left-wing streamer Hasan Piker and attempts by Republicans to tie him to the Muslim Brotherhood, which he has disavowed. Rogers, meanwhile, has had to contend with questions about whether he backs Trump's policies. El-Sayed leads by narrow margins in recent polls.
- Ohio: Democrat Sherrod Brown hopes to oust Sen. Jon Husted from his Senate seat, after Husted was appointed to serve the remainder of now-Vice President JD Vance’s Senate term.
- Texas: The Lone Star State is perhaps the most closely watched Senate contest of the year after Trump’s endorsement power successfully ousted four-term Sen. John Cornyn from the race in the Republican primary, leaving Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton with the task of keeping the seat red. But Paxton has plenty of baggage and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has put the race in play for Democrats. Talarico led Paxton by 2 points in a recent poll.
A handful of races races that were seen as competitive earlier in the season are now favoring Democratic victors. In North Carolina, former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper leads Republican Mike Whatley by 13 points in a recent Elon University poll, and Republicans have largely retreated financially from focusing on the state. The seat, currently held by Republican Sen. Thom Tillis – who announced his retirement last year amid disagreements with Trump – will almost certainly flip blue.
The Georgia race between Sen. Jon Ossoff and Republican challenger Rep. Mike Collins also no longer appears competitive, and Democrats are expected to hold the seat.
In New Hampshire, a Republican candidate, former Sen. John Sununu, from a prominent political family in the state, was seen to have potential to flip a seat red, but Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas now seems poised to claim it. In Minnesota, Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan also leads her Republican opponent, former sports reporter Michele Tafoya.
Republican-held seats in South Carolina, Mississippi and Nebraska are not as safely Republican as in previous cycles, but are also favored to stay in the GOP's control.
Democrats are poised to gain control of the House
All 435 members of the House of Representatives run for reelection every two years. But only a fraction of those seats are in competitive districts that will swing control of the chamber.
As of Oct. 22, Cook Political Report rates 21 as toss-up races, with 12 races leaning Democrat and 13 leaning Republican. Historically, the party that controls the White House tends to lose seats in the House during the midterms. Some of the races in the national spotlight include:
- Rep. Jared Moskowitz, D-Florida, from the state's 23rd Congressional District running in the state's new 25th District after a redistricting shuffle
- Rep. Tom Kean, R-New Jersey, is defending his suburban swing district after a four-month hiatus from Congress in the spring, which he says came from a hospitalization for depression.
- Rep. Mike Lawler, R-New York, hopes to keep his Hudson Valley seat in one of the least-red Republican-held districts in the country.
- Rep. Max Miller, R-Ohio, is running for reelection in what was once considered a solidly GOP district, until the race was upended by domestic violence allegations by Miller’s ex-wife, Emily Moreno, the daughter of Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio. Miller denies the allegations.
- Rep. Monica De La Cruz, R-Texas, flipped a Texas border district red in 2022, but now a two-time Latin Grammy-winning artist, Democrat Bobby Pulido, hopes to flip it back blue.
Trump's unpopularity seen as an obstacle for Republicans
Trump's record-low approval rating poses an issue for Republican candidates and many, especially those in close races, have distanced themselves from the president.
Americans in polls are expressing frustration with the inflation and cost of living, and many blame the White House's tariffs and war in Iran for their financial struggles.
The Pew Research Center reported on Oct. 8 that 84% of registered voters say the economy is an important factor in their midterm vote. Around the same time, 65% of Americans blamed Trump's policies for cost of living issues in an Oct. 1 poll by AP-NORC. In a Harvard Youth Poll released on Oct. 22, young voters expressed a dim view of their financial prospects, listing it as a top reason to vote, and many, including almost half of young Republicans, disapproved of Trump's handling of the economy.
Still, President Trump has made his rounds in recent weeks, campaigning for battleground Senate races in places like South Carolina, Texas, Mississippi, Michigan, Iowa, Alaska and Nebraska. Many of these states are historically seen as safe wins for Republicans, but this cycle, the party and its leader have needed to invest time and money into some surprising races.
The democratic socialists and progressives running in the midterms
Democratic socialists have been all the buzz this midterm season, with a flank of progressive Democrats, campaigning on proposals like Medicare for All and questioning the U.S.'s support of Israel, beating more established Democrats in the primaries.
In the primaries, the slate of democratic socialists and their allies beat out more moderate Democrats – and even ousted some progressive incumbents. Now, they're trying to win over enough independents to prevail in the general election.
Michigan's El-Sayed beat the more moderate Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens for the Democratic nomination for Senate, and Florida Senate candidate, state Rep. Angie Nixon, beat Alex Vindman, a former National Security Council official and key witness in the 2019 presidential impeachment of Trump. In Wisconsin, though, democratic socialist state Rep. Francesca Hong's campaign ended when Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley won that primary.
In New York City, democratic socialists Darializa Avila Chevalier and New York state Rep. Claire Valdez are expected to win their districts, as is New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who is not a member of the Democratic Socialists of America but is considered more progressive than Rep. Dan Goldman, who he defeated in the primary. Chevalier defeated Democratic Rep. Adriano Espaillat, the head of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and a close leadership ally.
Colorado democratic socialist Melat Kiros, who defeated 15-term Democratic Rep. Diana DeGette, and Michigan state Rep. Donavan McKinney also hope to add to the slate.
Democratic socialist Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York, and Rashida Tlaib, D-Michigan, are also expected to win their reelection campaigns.
If these Democrats win next week, especially El-Sayed in battleground Michigan, it could provide insights to the electability of more progressive candidates, as well as begin to pave the way for a potential 2028 presidential run by Ocasio-Cortez.
And if Democrats win control of either chamber, these progressives will be in the minority of their own party, but their growing voice could influence priorities, or potentially cause headaches for party leaders.
Not all of the progressives identify as Democratic Socialists of America members, or even democratic socialists, though. Democratic socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vermont, has backed many of these 2026 midterm candidates, but he is not a DSA member. Michigan Senate candidate El-Sayed has been backed by DSA members, but he considers himself a capitalist, not a democratic socialist.
In other Senate races, the progressive Illinois Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton and DSA member Nixon are on the ballot.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: One week until the midterms, here are the races to watch
