Major League Baseball’s unpopular winter sequel – Lockout II: The Reckoning – has thrown much of its offseason machinations into flux. Not only must teams conduct a significant amount of their business before the industry’s expected shutdown Dec. 1 but do so uncertain what economic system will prevail upon its restart.
The notion of a salary cap – even with a year to ease it in – would greatly alter the game’s economic structure. Chasing free agents comes with some uncertainty.
But what about trades?
Great question. Even a swap that’s decidedly not cash-neutral shouldn’t hamper a team’s flexibility years out. And with most teams committing to landing in a contending-but-not-dominant position – 24 of 30 teams finished with at least 75 wins – filling
needs by taking someone else’s ill-fitting part fits that mold.
With the offseason kicking into gear with next week’s general manager’s meetings but less than a month before the lockout, a breakdown of eight American League players who might fit in a trade package this winter:
Isaac Paredes, 3B, Astros
He’s a two-time All-Star with five seasons of 20 to 31 home runs. Yet Paredes, who turns 28 in February, may find himself on his fifth team in seven seasons come 2027. Such is life for an infielder with power but perhaps not the greatest defensive chops. And presuming Carlos Correa come back healthy, the Astros have a little glut on the infield.
Paredes is coming off possibly his best all-around season, hitting 25 homers and raising his OBP to a career-high .360. His strikeout rate also fell to a career-low 13.4%.
The Astros picked up his $13.55 million club option for 2027, which likely represents a savings on what he’d earn in his final year of salary arbitration. Paredes is eligible for free agency after this season.
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Bryce Miller, RHP, Mariners
Seems like the Mariners couldn’t get rid of their starting pitching glut if they tried. While last year brought a trade of Luis Castillo, it also saw the full emergence of right-hander Emerson Hancock, who made 25 starts and led the rotation with a 3.57 ERA.
Miller, 28, was limited to 21 starts after an oblique injury, got off to an excellent start and then faded a bit in the second-half wall, pitching to a 4.17 ERA and 4.41 FIP. And rookie Kade Anderson made a late-season debut and should be ready for a full season.
It’s true – you can never have too much starting pitching. The Mariners, though, are perpetually starved for offense and this winter is no different. Miller is entering the second of four arbitration years, is estimated by MLB Trade Rumors to earn just $3.9 million in 2027 and then two more seasons of club control. He’s two years removed from a 180-inning season in which he posted a 2.94 ERA.
A solid trade chip, a club with needs.
Griffin Jax, RHP, Rays
Simply a decent pitcher entering his final season before free agency on a club that tends to maximize its assets before they can walk.
On one hand, it’d be a drag for the Rays to spin off Jax after nurturing him thoughtfully this year from a reliever to a guy who made 23 starts, consumed 112 innings and started the lone World Series game Tampa Bay won. The club’s also losing All-Star Nick Martinez to free agency. And maybe the new ownership group would prefer keeping the good vibes going from their solid AL pennant club.
Yet the Rays have probably already ID’d their next Martinez, their next Jax. And the original could fetch a decent return while helping one of many pitching-starved clubs out there.
Jo Adell, OF/DH, Guardians
Now this would be kind of a bummer.
Adell got a taste of the high life in Cleveland, playing a key role on their AL Central champion and league runner-up squad after years spent in playoff-less Anaheim. He’s currently slated to get a season’s worth of at-bats at DH and probably the outfield.
But like the Rays, the Guardians stay fluid. Adell’s at-bats could conceivably go to rookie Petey Halpin, with the DH spot passing through a handful of players. And it should be noted that franchise stalwart Steven Kwan, like Adell, will be a free agent after this year; Kwan has been on the trade block before and could be placed there again.
Yet Kwan is coming off a 5.3-WAR season and more integral to the Guardians’ whole thing. They’ll keep most of it together.
Zach Neto, SS, Angels
Crazy thing about the Angels: They do all they can to remain irrelevant yet some really good players are racking up service time while nobody’s looking. Enter Neto, who has nearly four years of service and enters his first of three seasons before free agency.
The Angels’ mini-teardown netted them shortstop prospect Arjun Nimmala, who has looked terrific since arriving from Toronto in the Jose Soriano deal. Neto slammed 27 homers last year and posted a 5.2-WAR season. Perhaps he’d be better suited at second or third base than shortstop, but he’d make a good team great adding his bat to the middle infield.
Would the in-limbo Angels pull the trigger? Perhaps once the lockout is over with, Stan Kroenke controls the team and a GM is in place. But Neto would be in demand sooner, for certain.
Coby Mayo, 3B, Orioles
A handful of infield injuries finally allowed Mayo the runway to work through the swing-and-miss woes a 24-year-old, 6-5 power hitter might go through. The results were enticing: 24 home runs in 412 at-bats, 16 of them off lefties, against whom he posted a 1.105 OPS.
Baltimore, though, may again have an infield glut, with Jordan Westburg coming back from Tommy John surgery and Pete Alonso locked in at first base for four more seasons. It’d be dicey giving up five years of control of a potentially dominant power hitter.
Yet perhaps Mayo’s true ceiling is platoon DH, or something like that. And the club needs sock in the outfield and some pitching help. An interesting potential challenge trade.
Luis García Jr., INF, Yankees
Garcia answered the call when the Yankees put out an APB for bats at the trade deadline with Aaron Judge shelved. His OPS dipped from .873 with Washington to .736 in 43 games with the Yankees, but it all added up to a career-high 30-homer season for a guy who doesn’t turn 27 until May.
But the Yankees have an entire winter – plus however long the lockout lasts – to reconstruct their roster. By the letter of the law, they’ll lose contact with Judge on Dec. 1 as he recovers from a calf strain that knocked him out of the playoffs.
Yet if all goes well, Judge is back in right field, perhaps Giancarlo Stanton is healthy, perhaps Ben Rice scoots back over to first base, with Paul Goldschmidt re-signed as a right-handed pairing with Rice. That would make García relatively redundant, and it’s not like he set the Bronx ablaze with his two-month cameo.
No, perhaps he can be spun off for a team needing a first- or second baseman. García has just one more year before free agency so the return wouldn’t be huge. But he could help patch some roster holes for a club losing relievers David Bednar and Paul Blackburn, infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. and center fielder Trent Grisham to free agency.
Jarren Duran, OF, Red Sox
He’s kind of been a walking trade rumor the past couple years, but this could be the time he goes. Duran, 30, is projected to earn $11.1 million through arbitration, and is one of 17 (gulp) arbitration-eligible Red Sox. Sure, not all of them will be tendered contracts, but it’s nonetheless quite a run on John Henry’s private equity stash.
Duran’s offense has taken an extreme haircut since he led the majors in doubles (48) and triples (14) and won All-Star Game MVP in 2024. He posted an .834 OPS that year, but it’s since tumbled to .774 and .627, his 76 adjusted mark last year well below league average.
Yet Duran is one of the game’s best baserunners and still ranks well in outs above average. He’s got two years before free agency, and an acquiring team could simply non-tender him if his bat doesn’t pick up in 2027.
Certainly not a blockbuster in the offing, but an intriguing figure to ponder.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 8 high-impact MLB trade targets who could shake up uncertain offseason
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