It’d be wrong to say that the Pittsburgh Pirates’ collapse during the past couple of weeks is unprecedented because, let’s be honest. This particular franchise’s losing ways are almost always precedented. It has four winning seasons since 1992.
That reality doesn’t make the sudden fade from MLB postseason contention any less stunning after months of building legitimate buzz.
Just 15 days ago, Fangraphs gave the Pirates 47.6% odds to qualify as a likely wild-card team. The path was crowded with National League foes such as the Washington Nationals, Miami Marlins, St. Louis Cardinals and San Diego Padres all within two games in the standings for the final NL wild-card spot. But manager Don Kelly’s club seemed set up to play meaningful games down
the stretch.
As of Monday morning, that number has plummeted to 7.7% following four consecutive series losses to the Arizona Diamondbacks, Cincinnati Reds, Milwaukee Brewers and New York Mets. The Pirates are now four games under .500 and 5½ games back of the final playoff spot with five teams ahead of them in that race.
All this despite GM Ben Cherington acting as a buyer for once at the MLB trade deadline, notably adding dominant reliever Luke Weaver in a trade with the Mets.
Weaver has barely seen the mound. His only appearance since his Aug. 3 acquisition came Friday night with the Pirates trailing. He allowed a hit and a walk but kept a run from crossing in his debut, which became a 6-4 loss to his former team.
Why 2012 still haunts Pirates
The slide is starting to become evocative of 2012, when fans awoke on Aug. 1 to their team sitting third in the National League overall with a 60-44 record. Then-GM Neal Huntington had just acquired reliever Chad Qualls, first baseman Gaby Sanchez and outfielder Travis Snider to make a postseason push. Spirits were high.
By Aug. 15, they’d fallen to the second wild-card spot at 64-53. And by the end of the month, they were out of playoff position entirely.
The swoon continued into September until manager Clint Hurdle’s club finished 79-83. It was Pittsburgh’s 20th consecutive losing season, which still stands as the longest such skid for any team in the NFL, NHL, NBA or MLB.
The 2026 team didn’t start from quite as high a perch – it was just 54-52 before this tumble began in earnest. Still, the hope was that even that relative mediocrity would be enough in MLB’s expanded postseason bracket that includes seven teams in each league.
No dice. The previously dangerous offense has scored two or fewer runs in seven of the 15 games since July 26 amid injuries to key contributors Ryan O’Hearn, Oneil Cruz and Konnor Griffin. And the pitching staff gave up at least four runs in five of seven games during the past week since the deadline.
Reigning Cy Young winner Paul Skenes will make his latest attempt to right the proverbial ship Tuesday night in Miami, but it’s been months since he’s been a stopper consistently. The Pirates have lost 12 of his 15 starts since May 12.
That will have to change if this team is going to get back into it and avoid that 2012 team’s fate.
Either way, the good news from history for Pirates fans is that their two decades of nightmares ended the following year. Andrew McCutchen led the team to 94 wins, a memorable wild-card victory against the Cincinnati Reds and a hard-fought NLDS loss to the Cardinals in five games.
Today’s club could use a similar shot in the arm. It hasn’t posted a winning season since 2018 and hasn’t appeared in the playoffs since 2015.
Pirates playoff odds
Postseason odds per Fangraphs:
- Monday, July 27: 47.6%
- Monday, Aug. 10: 7.7%
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Pirates' playoff odds are collapsing. It's bringing back memories of 2012.
