Human expectations aren’t very high for the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2026. USA TODAY's own Nate Davis and Tom Viera pegged them as a 7-10 team in their record predictions earlier this month.
Google’s Gemini artificial intelligence assistant strikes a more optimistic tone. When prompted by USA TODAY to predict the Steelers’ game-by-game results, it came up with an 11-6 mark.
As an extra wrinkle, we asked Gemini to draw its conclusions mostly from publicly available data analytics sources to remove some of the human bias and groupthink that can sometimes shape opinions this time of year. We’ll give you Gemini’s explanations for its picks along with USA TODAY's reaction to the picks below.
The analysis breaks down the 11-6 projection, using straightforward
concepts like rest advantages, travel demands, match-ups in the trenches, and how well each team converts drives into points.
2026 Steelers game-by-game predictions
Week 1: vs. Atlanta Falcons | WIN (1-0)
- Gemini’s take: Playing at Acrisure Stadium gives Pittsburgh a built-in home-field edge. Atlanta's pass rush struggles to pressure quarterbacks, which gives Pittsburgh's offensive line control of the game early on.
- USA TODAY’s take: The Steelers better hope their offensive line gets it together in time for this prediction to come true. The group has struggled in the preseason, both in pass protection and the running game. Even with starters like tackles Troy Fautanu and Dylan Cook getting reps.
Week 2: at New England Patriots | WIN (2-0)
- Gemini's take: Pittsburgh's defensive line has a massive physical advantage over New England’s blocking unit. Being able to disrupt the Patriots' passing game without bringing extra defenders makes this a strong road match-up.
- USA Today’s take: The Steelers went into Foxboro and won a year ago, even as Drake Maye and the Patriots went on to the win AFC and reach the Super Bowl. Repeating that feat wouldn’t be a shock, even if it feels unlikely.
Week 3: vs. Cincinnati Bengals | LOSS (2-1)
- Gemini’s take: Fast-paced, high-powered passing teams give Pittsburgh trouble. Cincinnati excels at getting the ball out quickly, neutrali(z)ing the Steelers' pass rush and minimizing defensive takeaways.
- USA TODAY’s take: While this has been a persistent problem for the Steelers, the Bengals will also have to stop the Steelers defensively, too. Pittsburgh has won four of the last six meetings while averaging 29.3 points per game.
Week 4: at Cleveland Browns (TNF) | LOSS (2-2)
- Gemini’s take: Short rest on a Thursday night favors the home team. Cleveland’s tough run defense will force Pittsburgh into obvious passing situations, where the Browns' pass rush can take over.
- USA TODAY’s take: The Steelers have never won a Thursday night game against a division opponent. They were 0-7 in such situations under previous coach Mike Tomlin, so Mike McCarthy will have a lot of history going against him in this situation.
Week 5: vs. Indianapolis Colts | WIN (3-2)
- Gemini’s take: After playing on Thursday night, the Steelers get extra rest and preparation time. Returning home to face a young quarterback in a loud stadium favors Pittsburgh's defense.
- USA TODAY’s take: We’ll correct the AI on this one. Barring injury, veteran Daniel Jones will be the Colts’ starter in this one. He didn’t have a great time in his visit to Acrisure Stadium last season, though. He threw three interceptions in what became a 27-20 Steelers win.
Week 6: at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | WIN (4-2)
- Gemini’s take: Tampa Bay relies heavily on aggressive blitzing. That creates big-play opportunities downfield for Pittsburgh's tight ends and receivers in one-on-one coverage.
- USA TODAY’s take: Again, the Steelers’ offensive line will need to prove it can handle that. Especially because starter Aaron Rodgers lacks the mobility to escape the pressure gets too intense.
Week 7: at New Orleans Saints (Paris, France) | WIN (5-2)
- Gemini’s take: Neutral-site international games come down to strong special teams and a reliable running attack. Pittsburgh holds the edge in both areas to control the clock and outlast New Orleans.
- USA TODAY’s take: The Steelers won in their first international game in more than a decade last season in Ireland, so that should reduce some of the unknown in this one.
Week 8: vs. Cleveland Browns | WIN (6-2)
- Gemini’s take: Fresh off a bye-like rest period following their European trip, the Steelers get revenge at home. Pittsburgh’s run defense adjusts to contain Cleveland's backfield.
- USA TODAY’s take: The Browns have not won in Pittsburgh since their playoff win at Acrisure Stadium at the end of the 2020 season, so this would track with recent history.
Week 9: BYE WEEK
Week 10: at Cincinnati Bengals (SNF) | LOSS (6-3)
- Gemini’s take: While extra rest helps coming off the bye, winning in Cincinnati under the lights is a tall order. The Bengals' offense is simply too efficient at home in prime time.
- USA TODAY’s take: The AI seems high on the Bengals, but they’ve only swept the Steelers in a season series twice since the turn of the century, in 2009 and 2021.
Week 11: at Philadelphia Eagles | LOSS (6-4)
- Gemini’s take: Philadelphia fields one of the best offensive lines in football, effectively shutting down Pittsburgh's pass rushers and controlling the line of scrimmage in a tough road venue.
- USA TODAY’s take: Here’s more history for McCarthy to contend with. The Steelers have not won in Philadelphia since 1965.
Week 12: vs. Denver Broncos (Black Friday) | WIN (7-4)
- Gemini’s take: Playing on short rest at home favors the team with better defensive depth. Denver's inconsistency on key third downs will lead to a couple of crucial turnovers.
- USA TODAY’s take: The Broncos have not won in Pittsburgh since 2006, but the Steelers will need to prove that they’re actually the team with the better defensive depth. Denver was second in total defense and third in points allowed per game last season.
Week 13: vs. Houston Texans (SNF) | WIN (8-4)
- Gemini's take: Cold December nights in Pittsburgh are tough on visiting warm-weather or dome teams. The Steelers' defense forces Houston into obvious passing downs and controls the tempo.
- USA TODAY’s take: The cold certainly wasn’t a problem for the Texans in the playoffs last year. They came to Acrisure Stadium and dominated the second half to win, 30-6. Although the Steelers defense did limit Houston to just seven points through the first three quarters.
Week 14: at Jacksonville Jaguars (MNF) | LOSS (8-5)
- Gemini’s take: Late-season travel to a warm-weather climate creates a minor fatigue factor. Jacksonville’s quick-striking play-action passing game creates defensive breakdowns over the middle.
- USA TODAY’s take: The Steelers dominated Monday night games under Mike Tomlin, so McCarthy’s performance in this spot will be under the microscope.
Week 15: vs. Baltimore Ravens | WIN (9-5)
- Gemini’s take: Pittsburgh’s defense is specifically designed to stop Baltimore’s heavy power-running game. Reliable tackling in the box leads to a tight, low-scoring division victory at home.
- USA TODAY’s take: There are going to be a lot of unknowns here with both teams transitioning to new coaching staffs after many years of John Harbaugh vs. Mike Tomlin matchups. We’ll see if both teams stick to the historical script Gemini relies on here.
Week 16: vs. Carolina Panthers | WIN (10-5)
- Gemini’s take: Pittsburgh holds a clear advantage in overall roster talent and special teams play, allowing them to pull away comfortably at home.
- USA TODAY’s take: Tomlin’s staff frustrated fans by losing these types of favorable matchups more frequently than they would like. They became known as “Tomlin games,” so the pressure will be on for McCarthy to take care of business.
Week 17: at Tennessee Titans | WIN (11-5)
- Gemini’s take: Tennessee’s rebuilding roster tends to wear down in the second half. Pittsburgh uses a steady running game to control the clock and pull away late on the road.
- USA TODAY’s take: The Steelers have won eight of the last 10 meetings in this series, though they’ve not visited Nashville since 2020.
Week 18: at Baltimore Ravens | LOSS (11-6)
- Gemini’s take: With potential playoff positioning on the line, Baltimore holds the home-field advantage in Week 18. Their late-season ground attack does just enough to hand Pittsburgh a close loss.
- USA TODAY’s take: A season sweep of the rival Ravens does seem unlikely, although the Steelers did pull it off in 2025 to win the AFC North division.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Predicting the Steelers' 2026 season with Google's Gemini AI system
