The NFL's regular-season opener on Wednesday, Sept. 9, should serve as a reminder of just how precarious preseason predictions can be.
The rare midweek matchup pits the New England Patriots against the defending-champion Seattle Seahawks in a highly-anticipated Super Bowl 60 rematch. A year ago, those two teams meeting for the title might have seemed unfathomable. Neither made the previous playoff field, and each was far off the radar of popular picks to make a deep postseason run.
Does the 2026 campaign have another major surprise in store? With the league's extensive history of worst-to-first turnarounds and other rapid ascents – as well as downfalls – it would be foolish to rule out the possibility of a few unexpected turns. But several powerhouses
loom large over the current landscape, and toppling the top contenders in either conference could be exceedingly difficult for even the most promising upstart teams.
Here are my final preseason predictions for the division winners, wild-card berths, conference title games and Super Bowl outcome.
NFC division winner predictions
NFC East – Eagles: A division once known for its year-to-year upheaval now seems to have a rather established pecking order. Perhaps the Cowboys can upend that, or maybe the Commanders or Giants are capable of an odds-defying surge from the bottom of the standings. But Philadelphia's defense looks to be on the verge of rejoining the league's elite, which should afford the new-look offense some much-needed margin for error with its unfamiliar setup.
NFC North – Lions: It should come as no surprise that the league's only foursome of above-.500 teams from 2025 remains its most cutthroat grouping. Though anyone could emerge as the division winner, the Lions should be able to rain down a barrage of points on a soft schedule, facilitating another worst-to-first transformation.
NFC West – Rams: General manager Les Snead wasn't merely pontificating when he posited in February that the Rams needed to "make the most with the team we have" with the reigning NFL MVP Matthew Stafford. With Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson joining an already imposing collection of defensive talent, the Rams seized the offseason spotlight as well as the title of Super Bowl front-runners. There won't be much room to falter with the defending-champion Seahawks and perennial playoff contender 49ers poised to capitalize on any missteps. But even though this race could go down to the wire – Seattle and Los Angeles meet twice in the final three weeks – Sean McVay's crew has more firepower and fewer questions than any other outfit.
NFC South – Saints: Time for a bit of a twist. The Buccaneers have the strongest overall roster in the division, and Baker Mayfield's resurgence from last year's downturn could propel Tampa Bay back to the top of the standings. Still, New Orleans could leverage a highly favorable schedule and a Year 2 breakout for Kellen Moore's offense into the Saints' first NFC South crown since 2020.
NFC wild-card teams
(1) Seahawks: The reigning champions deserve more respect than they've been granted on a national scale. Even with Klint Kubiak and Kenneth Walker III gone, among others, the offense should maintain its big-play DNA. Mike Macdonald's defense, meanwhile, figures to be as vexing as ever for the league's top attacks. But with Brian Fleury figuring things out as a first-time play-caller while rookie Jadarian Price is called on to shoulder a significant workload in the ground game, there's a bit more of a boom-or-bust element in play. Seattle should ultimately find a comfortable settling point, but that might entail sliding to a wild-card slot rather than defending the division crown.
(2) 49ers: Is this the year of the long-awaited reset to return San Francisco to its perennial Super Bowl contender status? Setbacks seem inevitable for a franchise that has been accustomed to forging ahead without several of its star players. Yet few groups have proven themselves more persistent in the face of adversity, with the offense seldom wavering with Kyle Shanahan's steady hand at the wheel. Still, San Francisco can only go so far if its defense doesn't claw closer to its previous sky-high standards after two years of significant slippage.
(3) Cowboys: Omitting a second NFC North team from the postseason field might seem like a stretch given the competitive layout of the division. But that quartet could beat up on one another, whereas the Cowboys could stand to benefit from the NFC East's wider disparity in competitive credentials. If Christian Parker's reconfigured defense approaches a level of mere competence that escaped last year's unit, the Dak Prescott-helmed attack should be more than potent enough to avoid Dallas' first three-year postseason drought since 2010-13.
AFC division winner predictions
AFC East – Bills: Losing its perch atop the division was one of several setbacks last season that clearly didn't sit well with Buffalo brass. In handing Joe Brady the reins as head coach, however, the Bills might be embracing just enough change to reposition an already outstanding core. With DJ Moore added into the receiving corps, Josh Allen might finally have a sufficient level of support in an attack that has too often reverted to having him go into hero mode. The defense might be caught midway through a fairly extensive transition under new coordinator Jim Leonhard, but the change-up could still produce meaningful gains for a group that had been merely hanging on under Sean McDermott.
AFC North – Ravens: Beyond Buffalo, Baltimore stands out as the clear choice for a first-year head coach to flourish. In contrast to the Bills, however, the Ravens are opting for more widespread change, which could take longer to take root. But Jesse Minter's knack of bringing about cohesion on defense might enable the unit to make a rapid turnaround, even if Lamar Jackson and Co. need more time to get settled under first-time play-caller Declan Doyle. There's a distinct sense of uncertainty at play, but few teams in the AFC have a higher ceiling.
AFC West – Broncos: Denver would be well within its rights to feel overlooked, if not downright disrespected. Yes, matching or improving upon their 11-2 mark in one-score games seems exceedingly unlikely, which naturally indicates a regression from last season's 14-3 record. But with enviable consistency almost across the board, the Broncos could be better positioned to break away from opponents rather than depending on a photo finish. Though a trying early slate could put Sean Payton and Co. in another early hole, the Broncos still have enough to stave off the Chargers and Chiefs.
AFC South – Texans: With the league's most dominant defense almost certain to reassert its standing, Houston has a considerably higher baseline than almost all of its competitors. C.J. Stroud might have enhanced support in his pass protection and with the ground game, though neither is likely to break into the league's upper echelon. But even incremental growth in each area should allow the Texans to create some separation in the AFC South for the franchise's third division title in four years.
AFC wild-card seeds
1. Patriots: Don't get caught up in the notion of a Super Bowl hangover for the reigning AFC champions. There's still room for NFL MVP runner-up Drake Maye to grow, and the tantalizing new receiver tandem of A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs could help the quarterback access those next levels in short order. Still, there's substantial concern about how New England will keep opposing pass rushers at bay as well as whether it can effectively create its own spark off the edge. The Patriots shouldn't fall out of the conference's contending class, but things likely will be markedly more difficult than they were during the franchise's rather fortuitous run to the title game last year.
2. Chargers: Mike McDaniel's arrival brings considerable excitement to an attack that seemed due to be kicked into high gear. Still, the lack of stability on the interior creates a good deal of volatility for the Bolts. Los Angeles should be able to secure a third consecutive wild-card berth if the defense's standard doesn't slip too far from the bar set by Minter, but things could get dicey if the unit takes a significant step back.
3. Bengals: A sizable leap of faith might be required to believe the Bengals' bounce-back campaign will prove more successful than that of the Chiefs. Nevertheless, the path back to the postseason for Cincinnati is straightforward. Between the disruption Dexter Lawrence can create up front and the rest of a young group coming into its own, last year's sieve of a defense figures to be notably more stout. Of course, any further injuries to Joe Burrow would render this prediction moot, but more under-center work and an accompanying recalibration of the offense could help better safeguard the quarterback.
NFC playoff prediction
NFC title game – Rams def. Eagles: In a playoff landscape in which seeding wasn't a consideration, an NFC title game rematch between the Rams and Seahawks would have been the clear choice. Perhaps the two NFC West foes can both find a way back to the stage. But barring a wild-card upset, a tilt in the divisional round seems like the more reasonable outcome. In that scenario, Los Angeles gets the nod as the more complete team, and one that could hit its stride down the final stretch after tripping itself up late last year. Meanwhile, the acclimation to Sean Mannion's offense might be a season-long endeavor for Philadelphia, but a lockdown defense gives the Eagles an edge over the field of potential NFC contenders. Still, unless it loses a key skill-position figure or has its offensive line depth put to the test, Los Angeles looks like the clear class of the conference.
AFC playoff prediction
AFC title game – Bills def. Ravens: In sharp contrast to the NFC, the AFC looks like a potential free-for-all. No fewer than six teams look capable of seizing the conference crown, while nearly twice as many could be in the playoff mix. That might transform the postseason into a war of attrition decided by a few key circumstances, as was the case last year when the Patriots conquered the Bo Nix-less Broncos in a blizzard to conquer the conference. With Allen, an imposing offensive line and steady run game, the Bills are built to persevere, even though they've repeatedly been dealt bad breaks and come up short in the playoffs in recent years. A new mindset and clean bill of health could carry Baltimore a long way, but reaching the Super Bowl summit will make for a steep climb.
Super Bowl 61 prediction
Bills def. Rams: There's no glory in rolling with the overwhelming preseason favorite, so here we go. Four years ago, the Bills opened the NFL regular season by rolling the defending-champion Rams at SoFi Stadium. Now, they could close out a campaign by again spoiling things for Los Angeles in the team's home confines. Between Allen and the robust line, the Bills are one of the few teams capable of not allowing the Rams' defensive front to dictate terms of a game. That could be sufficient to keep things close enough in a Super Bowl clash and give Buffalo its long-awaited title breakthrough.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL season predictions: Super Bowl-favorite Rams aren't the champ pick
