Week 4’s here, so I’ve got four plays on the card.
Don’t worry, I won’t keep that theme going into Week 11 or something.
Without further ado, three spreads and a visit to Narrative Street, where we’ll double-dip on the biggest favorite on the board.
Let’s get into it.
NFL best bets for Week 4: Kaufman's Card
Ravens -6.5 first-half spread vs. Titans
Fresh off a last-second win over the Cowboys in Brazil, the Ravens are back home to host the hapless Titans.
Baltimore’s going to be an immensely popular survivor pool play this week. With a full-game spread of 11.5 points, understandably so.
Would I take the Ravens to cover the number? I would.
But I like the first-half play even better, especially getting that number inside a touchdown.
The Titans are winless and offensively futile. After managing just a late touchdown last week at the
Meadowlands, Tennessee has scored a mere 37 points this season, ranking 30th in the NFL. Against the Giants, the Titans produced just one first down and 54 yards in the opening half.
Tennessee does have a top-10 scoring defense, but its competition has included Philadelphia and both New York teams. Baltimore’s offense presents a substantially tougher assignment, averaging 30.7 points per game – good for fourth in the league.
So, why the first-half line?
Baltimore has outscored its opponents 62-32 in the first half this year and been outscored 46-30 in the second half. The Ravens have led by margin at halftime in all three games.
The Titans?
As you may have assumed, they’ve consistently trailed at the break while going 0-2-1 against the spread.
Let’s see a fast start, then we can let somebody else sweat a potential backdoor cover.
Derrick Henry 2+ touchdowns vs. Titans
That’s right, more Ravens-Titans talk.
Derrick Henry spent the first eight years of his career in Tennessee before moving to Baltimore in 2024.
To the surprise of some, the superstar running back hasn’t faced his old team yet.
Until now.
This isn’t your standard revenge play, but I do believe it’s important to Henry to have a standout performance against his former team after the Titans didn’t offer him a contract following the 2023 season.
Of course, it helps that he’s still exceptional.
Henry has 301 rushing yards and six touchdowns through three games. He scored twice in last week’s win over Dallas, and I’m looking for a repeat against a Tennessee defense allowing 126.3 rushing yards per game, ranking 24th. The Titans have surrendered three rushing touchdowns.
I think Henry goes off.
I’m not interested in laying around -220 for one touchdown. That’s a parlay piece. If I’m betting this matchup, I want the bigger payout for two.
Narrative Street has expensive property taxes, you know.
Bills -6.5 vs. Patriots
The Bills have certainly had their issues defensively this season, but their offense scored 36 and 41 points before last week’s five-turnover escape against the Chargers.
Even then, Buffalo found a way to win 24-16.
While the Patriots are strong defensively on the stat sheet, I’m not confident they’ll hold up at Highmark Stadium without Christian Gonzalez and Christian Barmore. Both were ruled out Friday with shoulder injuries.
And, the way New England’s played offensively, it’s hard to have faith in its ability to keep pace.
Last year’s MVP runner-up Drake Maye has turned the ball over seven times through three games, and A.J. Brown remains on injured reserve.
One bad sign after another for the Patriots.
After nearly handing the Chargers their first win, I expect the Bills to play considerably cleaner football. And what better opportunity to send a message to the reigning division champs?
Hand up. Patriots fan here.
Still laying the number.
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Rams -3 at Eagles
Full transparency: I grabbed this when there were still -2.5s available.
With the Rams widely priced at -3.5, I’d rather pay for -3 and have push protection if this game is decided by a field goal.
But, to be honest, I don’t think it’ll be that tight.
The Rams are coming off a disappointing second-half collapse in Denver. Los Angeles blew a 16-0 lead at the break, then had a potential game-sealing interception wiped out by a controversial defensive pass-interference call.
I can admittedly fall into narrative traps, but I expect a strong response.
The Eagles just got worked by Bears third-string quarterback Case Keenum in primetime. Now they’re without DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert and Zack Baun.
Los Angeles has its own issues, including Aaron Donald’s absence, but Puka Nacua is expected back alongside Davante Adams. That gives Matthew Stafford plenty to work with.
Give me the Rams to bounce back on the road.
Kaufman’s Card:
- Ravens -6.5 first-half spread vs. Titans
- Derrick Henry 2+ touchdowns vs. Titans
- Bills -6.5 vs. Patriots
- Rams -3 at Eagles
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL week 4 best bets include Ravens vs. Titans same-game parlay
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