Hagen Smith and Grant Taylor have been all over this American League Division Series for the Chicago White Sox, the rookie Smith starting two games and Taylor saving a pair himself as the papal-powered South Siders pushed their division rivals from Cleveland to the brink of elimination.
Yet like a volatile stock, Smith and Taylor and the White Sox are experiencing the cruel playoff reality of diminishing returns.
And as their stuff flattens out and Guardians hitters get more familiar with their repertoires, a 2-0 ALDS lead evaporated into the black of Rate Field.
Now they’re all in a free fall, with one faint chance to catch themselves.
Odds are, the White Sox’s season ends in a decisive Game 5 Saturday, Oct. 10 at Cleveland’s Progressive Field.
It’s been a great run, their climb back from 121- and 102-loss seasons into the playoffs a well-documented, feel-great story.
But minus the horses traditionally associated with playoff teams, the White Sox are trying to head-fake their way through these playoffs with the ever-popular “pitching chaos,” where pretty much everybody pitches at least every other day, both to maximize platoon advantages and camouflage your own deficiencies.
It looked great when the White Sox won their first four postseason games, sweeping Houston in the wild-card series. Now?
They are just the latest club to prove this approach unsustainable – the latest illustration of Major League Baseball’s starting pitching crisis.
Hey, we know it’s not 1968 anymore, nor 2012, or even 2022. The starting pitcher is nearly extinct, in a global sense, a hard reality evidenced by four of the eight wild-card teams opting for bullpen games in Game 1 of their playoff openers.
Grim.
Our current predicament is more than a decade, maybe two, in the making. Teams opted to protect young pitching “assets” in the minor leagues, babying them and putting significant governors on innings.
And everyone blew out their arms, anyway.
The max velocity revolution exacerbated all those problems. For every Jacob Misiorowski, there were dozens of other pitchers who either blew out or could not pair power with precision consistently and ended up in a bullpen somewhere.
Which brings us to White Sox-Guardians.
In retrospect, it’s kind of remarkable the White Sox won 84 games, what with just three guys – Anthony Kay, Sean Burke and Davis Martin – making more than 15 starts. In this ALDS, Kay has been reduced to opener or situational guy, Martin virtually invisible and Burke a bulk pitcher.
That’s left Smith, the rookie from Arkansas who debuted in August, to start Game 1 of the wild card series. And Game 1 of the ALDS. And also Game 4 of the ALDS, with a relief appearance sandwiched into Game 3.
Like a boxer who came out a little too spry, his punches have failed to land as the bout dragged on.
He pitched a crisp 2 ⅓ innings in ALDS Game 1, striking out four but walking three. Less sharp in a Game 3 relief appearance, getting two outs while walking two, giving up a hit and a run.
And then Game 4, the black-clad Sox Park crowd roaring for a Cleveland kill shot. And Smith could only record one out, while walking three batters.
By night’s end, he’d faced 21 batters in this series – more than two whole trips through the Guardians lineup. Lots of looks.
He’s got nothing on Taylor, though. Taylor was the hero in Game 1, a stunning and efficient four-inning save in which he threw 42 pitches. After an off day, a four-out save in Game 2.
Yet by Game 4, the wheels came off.
Summoned in the sixth inning of a 4-4 tie, runner on second, Taylor, charitably, had nothing. The Guardians went single-walk-walk-single-single-single off him, 4-4 becoming 9-4 and clubhouse champagne giving way to a Friday flight to the shores of Lake Erie.
Little wonder. By the time Taylor took the ball in Game 4, he’d faced 18 Guardians. There were no more secrets.
Eventually, the discipline improves. The chase decreases. The balls get squared up, and chaos comes back to haunt you.
“They’re making really good swing decisions, making good contact,” White Sox manager Will Venable said after Game 4. “When you walk guys, they make you pay. We were able to get away with it the first couple games.”
Kind of the definition of “unsustainable.”
And consider this: There are two more playoff rounds remaining, both best-of-seven and not these three- and five-game tuneups. Imagine what the White Sox staff might look like at the end of a seven-game ALCS?
These are the sorts of things that get lost when half-serious proposals such as an expansion of the Division Series from five to seven games get tossed out.
Who's pitching Game 5 for White Sox?
Chicago’s pitching looks like it’s been through the Cuisinart already. Adrian Morejon, San Diego’s best reliever not named Mason Miller, lasted just two games in their NLDS before his shoulder barked too hard.
And now the Guardians and White Sox face one more all-hands meeting Saturday. Heck, Cleveland’s not in great shape either, with rookie ace Parker Messick struggling in both his starts and AL strikeout king Gavin Williams forced to get the final three outs of Game 4, simply because manager Stephen Vogt tried to stretch All-Star closer Cade Smith across two innings on consecutive nights.
Not enough pitching.
That’s where all these suboptimal decisions come from, and why it’s no coincidence the three teams safely on to the LCS round – the Dodgers, Rays and Brewers – have a deep well of arms to call upon.
Sure, maybe the Brewers only have two reliable starters in Misiorowski and Logan Henderson, but they truly lean on all their arms in leverage situations and, with off days, should navigate the remainder of the postseason just fine.
The White Sox? Well, in Game 5 they’re starting Burke – an actual starting pitcher, his second start this postseason. He’ll go as long and as hard as he can, and then Venable will have to hope the buttons he pushes don’t make the dashboard smoke.
Hope, they say, is not a plan. Eventually, well-considered chaos isn’t, either. And somehow the White Sox must find nine more innings to keep their dream season alive.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Plan blows up on White Sox as MLB playoff joyride meets harsh reality
