In his 2000 bestseller "The Tipping Point," Malcolm Gladwell argued that big shifts in behavior often start with just a handful of people acting differently. As the subtitle put it: "How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference."
Lately, Republicans have been doing a lot of little things.
Political reporters have spent a decade waiting for Republicans to break with President Donald Trump
. With five weeks until the midterm elections, and his approval ratings in the cellar, the wait may be ending.Republicans haven't tipped yet. But the political calculation that has kept them in line for a decade is changing. For some Republicans, standing too close to Trump may now be more dangerous than crossing him. And once that calculation changes, things can move
quickly.
The little things are starting to add up
In the past week alone, Republicans running for Senate or governor in Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin – all states Trump won in 2024 – called on him to end the war in Iran to bring down gas prices.
Sen. John Curtis, R-Utah, asked the Senate Judiciary Committee to investigate Donald Trump Jr. after reports that an oligarch with ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin helped bankroll his wedding party.
Earlier this month, dozens of Republicans in close races skipped Trump's midterm convention in Dallas. Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pennsylvania, had the best excuse: "Our bosses are back home."
It's not just swing states. Rep. María Elvira Salazar's office once boasted that "every time Trump picks up the phone, dictators shake in their boots." This month, the Florida Republican ran an ad saying some of Trump's immigration enforcement has "gone too far."
Rep. Byron Donalds, whom Trump has endorsed for Florida governor, scrubbed the president from a campaign website that once urged supporters to "Chip in to Support Trump Endorsed Byron Donalds." Donalds says the site "was actually going to be refurbished anyway." Yeah, sure.
Kentucky's Republican Senate nominee Andy Barr made similar changes to a website that once promised he'd be "the President's biggest advocate in the Senate." In 2024, Trump won Kentucky by more than 30 percentage points.
The White House insists none of this matters. Trump is "the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party," spokesman Davis Ingle said.
Trump himself went on Truth Social to call reports that Donalds was distancing himself a "Fake Story." A president firmly in charge of his party doesn't usually need to keep saying so.
Republicans have flinched before
To be sure, you could have gone broke betting on this over the past 10 years. There have been a lot more supposed Republican tipping points than actual ones.
Some Republicans turned on Trump after the "Access Hollywood" tape, after the "Unite the Right" rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, and after Jan. 6, 2021. Each time, once he started winning again, it was back to groveling.
Sometimes it didn't even take that long. Weeks after saying Trump bore responsibility for the U.S. Capitol attack, then-House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy was at Mar-a-Lago, the president's estate in Florida. Those who held out, like Liz Cheney, were run out of the party.
So why might this time be different? As recently as May, crossing Trump could still end your career. Just ask Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who both lost Republican primary elections to Trump-backed challengers.
But the primaries are over. Trump's most effective weapon against Republican lawmakers – backing someone to take their jobs – has temporarily lost much of its force. At the same time, his approval has hit a new low. Reuters/Ipsos has it at 32%, the worst in its polling. Among Republicans, it fell from 82% to 73% in a single week. Many on the ballot now clearly see him as a liability.
Some of the loudest complaints are coming from candidates Trump endorsed. Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers used to call the war with Iran "a win-win-win." Now he says it "needs to end, and end quickly." Iowa Senate candidate Ashley Hinson promised to be "President Trump's top ally in the United States Senate." Now she says Iowans "shouldn't have to foot the bill" for his war.
Nobody will mistake this for courage. It's politicians reading the polls, which is how tipping points usually start.
So, have Republicans tipped? Not yet. Hinson voted repeatedly against House measures to end the war that she now says should stop. If the GOP holds Congress in November, plenty will fall back in line.
But Trump has a problem most presidents don't. Much of his hold on Republican politicians has rested on fear. He's built up remarkably little goodwill to fall back on once that fear fades. He's demanded their loyalty for years and rarely returned it. When Salazar broke with him on immigration, he shared a post calling her a "back stabber."
And while his party's candidates plead with him to end the war in Iran, Trump told the United Nations on Sept. 22 that the November elections play no part in his thinking. "I am not running," the president said. "It doesn't even enter my mind."
He's also steered the party a long way from conservatism. Republicans spent decades preaching free trade. Trump keeps piling on tariffs, which even Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, has called "a tax on consumers." He had the government take a 10% stake in Intel, a move Sen. Rand Paul, R-Kentucky, likened to "a step toward socialism."
And a party of China hawks watched him roll out the red carpet for Xi Jinping, a welcome that Armed Services Committee Chairman Roger Wicker, R-Mississippi, criticized on the Senate floor. When Trump is gone, plenty of Republicans will be relieved to go back to being conservatives.
That's the danger for Trump. Republicans have spent a decade watching what happens to those who cross him. If they start watching colleagues cross him and survive, it’ll get easier for the next one.
Gladwell wrote that epidemics often break out suddenly, after a long stretch when a lot of little things seem to add up to nothing. That's where Republicans are now. After 10 years, I wouldn't bet on when they'll finally tip. But when they do, I'd bet the house on this: Many who stood by Trump will insist they had their doubts all along.
Daniel Allott, USA TODAY’s conservative opinion editor, is the author of the book “On the Road in Trump’s America: A Journey Into the Heart of a Divided Nation.”
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Have Republicans finally reached a tipping point on Trump? | Opinion
