Michigan’s first U.S. Senate debate Oct. 8 will serve as a major test for Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed as he seeks to unify his party and prove that a progressive can win a battleground state.
El-Sayed will face off against former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, who has sought to paint the former Wayne County health director as too far-left.
El-Sayed has tied Rogers to unpopular policies from President Donald Trump’s administration, including a trade war with Canada, Michigan’s biggest export partner, and higher costs resulting from the war in Iran.
The debate comes as national Democrats have raced to bolster El-Sayed after his narrow victory in an August primary against the more moderate Rep. Haley Stevens. Former Vice President Kamala Harris
endorsed and campaigned with El-Sayed in Detroit Sept. 22 and former President Barack Obama will rally with the Senate candidate and Democrats’ gubernatorial nominee, Jocelyn Benson, on Oct. 24.
But El-Sayed has also faced resistance from pockets of the Democratic coalition, including Jewish voters wary of his staunch criticism of Israel and moderates who don't support progressive policies such as Medicare for All. His campaign has also sought to consolidate his support among Black voters, who favored Stevens in the primary in polls. Those weak spots have created an opening for his GOP opponent, who has made direct appeals to those groups.
The Michigan Senate race has taken on increased importance in the final weeks of the midterm election. While Democrats are running surprisingly competitive campaigns in Republican strongholds such as Kansas and Alaska, holding on to retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters' seat in Michigan is key to their hopes of flipping the Senate in November.
Recent polls show a close race. A Fox News survey released Sept. 30 found 50% of likely voters supported El-Sayed and 49% backed Rogers, within the margin of error. El-Sayed was backed by 77% of likely Black voters. (Sen. Elissa Slotkin, who narrowly beat Rogers in 2024, won 85% of the Black vote, according to CNN exit polls.)
The race could also have broader political implications for the Democratic Party, as El-Sayed’s campaign represents a rare opportunity for progressives to show their platform is viable even in more moderate parts of the country. Trump carried Michigan in 2024 by 1.4 percentage points.
“If Abdul can win in Michigan, anybody can win anywhere,” Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said at an Oct. 5 fundraiser for El-Sayed in New York, according to The New York Times.
Making the case on affordability
Both Senate candidates have spent the last weeks arguing that they’re the stronger pick to alleviate affordability concerns.
El-Sayed previewed his responses to several of his critics' attacks during an Oct. 5 Fox News interview, in which he frequently referred back to higher costs.
Asked about his relationship with Hasan Piker, the controversial Twitch streamer who campaigned for El-Sayed and other progressives during the primary season, El-Sayed said the race isn’t about a “streamer in California.”
“The reason I have a conversation with him is the same reason I have a conversation with you, because I want to talk to the folks out here who I want to have a conversation with,” El-Sayed said, referring to his decision to appear on Fox News. “Do you think that you’re better off now after two years of Donald Trump? Do you think that your gas is going to get any less expensive? Do you think that this war is justifiable or the tariffs in Canada?”
Rogers in recent days has sought to distance himself from those attacks. On Sept. 21 he released an ad, filmed in a grocery store, calling for a quick end to the war to bring down costs and urging a gas tax holiday. After previously defending the president’s tariff strategy, Rogers broke with Trump in an Oct. 7 ad calling for an end to the trade war with Canada.
“Here in Michigan we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war now,” Rogers said in the spot, while holding a Canadian beer.
Rogers has argued that progressive policies such as Medicare for All would be too costly, and has criticized El-Sayed’s past support for the Green New Deal, which he has argued would harm the state’s auto manufacturing industry.
An appeal to party unity
Part of El-Sayed’s challenge at the debate will be to assuage concerns from different factions of the Democratic Party.
Some of that work has already begun. El-Sayed’s appearance with Harris in September marked a turning of the page for the Michigan Democrat, who supported the Uncommitted Movement that protested the Biden administration’s approach to Israel. El-Sayed endorsed Harris the day after former President Joe Biden withdrew.
His past backing of the movement has raised concerns that he will underperform with Black voters, who may resent his reluctance to support the first Black woman to be nominated for president.
El-Sayed must also strengthen his support among Jewish voters. Several prominent Jewish Michigan Democrats are backing the candidate, including Slotkin and Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel. And more than 850 Jewish voters and leaders in the state signed onto an open letter backing his campaign. But Republicans see an opening to win over some Jewish Democrats who disapprove of El-Sayed's criticisms of Israel. The Republican Jewish Coalition Victory Fund launched a $2 million ad campaign Oct. 7 in a bid to sway that bloc.
Adrian Hemond, a Democratic strategist based in Michigan, told USA TODAY he isn’t supporting El-Sayed because of the candidate’s stance on Israel and policies such as Medicare for All, which Hemond said would lead to tax increases on the middle class. But he said the key goal for El-Sayed ahead of the debate was to not stumble.
“(El-Sayed) clearly has the momentum on his side — not because of anything that he’s doing, but because the president ran the economy into a ditch with tariffs and a war of choice in the Middle East,” Hemond said. “If Abdul doesn’t screw up, you have to call him the favorite in this race.”
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: First debate with Mike Rogers will be a key test for Abdul El-Sayed
