With less than a month until November's midterm elections, Democrats running for the U.S. Senate have forged leads or dead-heats in five traditionally Republican states – momentum that suggests the party has increased its potential for flipping the chamber for the remainder of President Donald Trump's term.
Democrats need to gain at least four seats currently held by Republicans while also holding onto their current Senate seats to assume control. The Senate has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats including two Independents (Sen. Angus Young of Maine and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont), who caucus with them.
A new New York Times/Siena University poll, released Oct. 2, found Democrats has leads or were neck and neck in key Senate races in five states
– Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio and Texas – considered to be reliably Republican.
Heading into 2026, Democrats had been considered a lock to regain control of the House of Representatives. But growing disapproval of President Trump's handling of the economy and the Iran war have fueled Democrats' chances of control of the Senate, too. Control of both houses of Congress could help Democrats block Trump's agenda over his last two years in office.
What is the latest polling showing?
The Times/Siena poll found Democrat Mary Peltola, a former member of Congress, held a seven-point lead over incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan in Alaska. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico had a six-point lead (51% to 45%) over Republican Ken Paxton, according to the poll, conducted Sept. 21-Oct. 1.
Also in the poll, former U.S. senator Sherrod Brown had a three-point margin in Ohio over Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the empty seat left when JD Vance became vice president.
In Kansas, where it has been more than 90 years since a Democrat was elected to the U.S. Senate, Methodist pastor Adam Hamilton is tied with Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, the poll found. Similarly, Democrats have not won a Senate race in 18 years in Iowa where Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek trails Republican U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson by one percentage point.
Here's the findings from the latest Times/Siena poll:
- Alaska: (D) Peltola: 50% - (R) Sullivan: 43%
- Iowa: (R) Hinson: 48% - (D) Turek: 47%
- Kansas: (D) Hamilton: 45% - (R) Marshall: 45%
- Ohio: (D) Brown: 49% - (R) Husted: 46%
- Texas: (D) Talarico: 51% - (R) Paxton: 45%
Top issue for midterms? It's still the economy
The poll also found that 57% of those surveyed across the five states strongly or somewhat disapproved of Trump's job as president – just the latest sign of disapproval of the president's performance.More than one-fifth of likely voters (21%) said the economy was the most important issue in deciding their vote. Other important issues: inflation/cost of living (8%), character/competence of candidate (8%) and Immigration (8%). Among Independents, those three issues were rated slightly higher, the poll found.
Democrats are also competitive in five other states Trump won by double digits in 2024: Florida, Nebraska, Mississippi, South Carolina and Kentucky. President Trump has kicked off a barnstorming tour seeking to energize Republican voters in red states including Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio and Nebraska.
Through his MAGA political action committee, Trump has pledged to spend $400 million to boost Republicans in the midterms. At the same time, the Senate Leadership Fund is spending $100 million in Texas to bolster Paxton in what has become an unexpectedly competitive state.
"Not only is there a swing away from the Republican Party compared to 2024, but the swing actually seems to be somewhat bigger in red America than in blue America, and that's putting these states that Trump won easily very much into play," said David Hopkins, a political science professor at Boston College, told Reuters.
Contributing: Fernando Cervantes Jr., Terry Collins, and Sarah D. Wire.
Mike Snider is a national trending news reporter for USA TODAY. You can follow him on Threads, Bluesky, X and email him at mikegsnider & @mikegsnider.bsky.social & @mikesnider & msnider@usatoday.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Democrats gain edge in tight Senate races in new poll
