For the first time this season, Arch Manning and No. 1 Texas are taking the show on the road.
After sandwiching easy wins over Texas State and Texas-San Antonio around a memorable comeback against No. 7 Ohio State, the Longhorns will open SEC play this Saturday at No. 13 Tennessee as about a touchdown favorite.
There are obvious College Football Playoff implications in this top-15 matchup, not to mention the hard-to-miss storyline of Manning playing on the same field where his uncle, Peyton, built an indelible SEC legacy about three decades ago. (You may hear about this once or twice this week.) There’s also the possibility for a major shakeup in the US LBM Coaches Poll.
“This conference, I’ve said it time and time again, from top to bottom, anybody can beat anybody,” Texas coach Steve Sarkisian said. “And I think that’s the challenge of our conference is being mentally and physically prepared to play week in and week out. And for us this week, it’s no different.”
But based on recent history, the Longhorns’ expectations and this year’s schedule, the biggest takeaway from Saturday should focus on Manning’s performance in a tough road environment.
Arch Manning at home vs. on the road
Success outside of Austin has been elusive for the fourth-year quarterback.
Including his two starts as an injury replacement for Quinn Ewers in 2024, Manning has gone 11-0 at home and 2-0 on neutral sites — leading Texas past Oklahoma in last year’s rivalry and to a win against Michigan in the Citrus Bowl.
But the Longhorns are just 2-3 in true road games with Manning under center, losing at Ohio State, Florida and Georgia while narrowly escaping in overtime as clear favorites against Kentucky and Mississippi State.
Even beyond the Longhorns’ record, Manning’s home-and-road splits as a passer are among the most striking in the Power Four:
- At home, he’s completed 205 of 324 attempts for 2,858 yards and 27 touchdowns against six interceptions.
- In his two neutral-site starts, he’s completed 42 of 61 passes for 387 yards and three scores without an interception.
- And in his five true road starts, Manning is 101 of 175 for 1,162 yards with seven touchdowns and five interceptions.
Beyond the clear win-loss record and touchdown-to-interception ratio, he’s also averaging about two additional yards per pass attempt at home compared to on the road.
A year ago, Manning ranked 13th nationally in efficiency rating at home and 77th in games played on the road or on a neutral site.
Manning’s road struggles against the Power Four
His production at home is partially inflated by five non-conference games against the Group of Six. Similarly, Manning’s numbers in road games are impacted by the quality of the competition, including two matchups with eventual playoff teams.
But a rundown of Manning’s five true-road starts away from home last season paints a concerning picture of the Longhorns’ chances of navigating what should be a very difficult conference schedule.
- Ohio State (14-7 loss), Aug. 25: 17 of 30 for 170 yards (5.7 yards per attempt), one touchdown, one interception.
- Florida (29-21 loss), Oct. 4: 16 of 29 for 263 yards (9.1 yards per attempt), two touchdowns, two interceptions.
- Kentucky (16-13 win in overtime), Oct. 18: 12 of 27 for 132 yards (4.9 yards per attempt), no touchdowns, no interceptions.
- Mississippi State (45-38 win in overtime), Oct. 25: 29 of 46 for 346 yards (7.5 yards per attempt), three touchdowns, one interception.
- Georgia (35-10 loss), Nov. 15: 27 of 43 for 251 yards (5.8 yards per attempt), one touchdown, one interception.
Texas managed just 179 yards of offense against Kentucky. One week later, the Longhorns needed a 24-point fourth quarter to force an extra frame against Mississippi State and won without Manning, who left with an injury in overtime.
Manning’s play on the road will determine how far Texas goes
Of the Longhorns’ nine SEC games, all but one comes against an opponent currently ranked in one of the two major polls.
That begins with the No. 13 Volunteers, followed in two weeks with the Red River Rivalry against the No. 24 Sooners.
No. 22 Florida, No. 6 Mississippi and Mississippi State come to Austin in October. (The Bulldogs are unranked in the Coaches Poll but debuted at No. 24 in this week’s Associated Press poll.)
November will decide how far Texas goes this season, and specifically whether the Longhorns play for the SEC championship and a top-four playoff ranking, earn a soft landing as an at-large selection or miss the tournament for the second year in a row.
First, Texas goes to No. 21 Missouri. Then to No. 11 LSU. After hosting Arkansas, the Longhorns end the month in College Station against No. 20 Texas A&M.
Given that daunting finish and the narrow room for error in the crowded playoff race, Manning and the Longhorns almost can’t afford a loss in Knoxville.
But how he plays is important, too: Manning has to prove that he can deliver a Heisman Trophy-worthy performance away from home if Texas plans to claim the program’s first national championship since 2005.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: How bad has Arch Manning been on road? The startling numbers as Texas visits Tennessee
