Two polls of Texas’ U.S. Senate race show the candidates are headed for a close finish, but they disagree on just how close.
A new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll, released Oct. 22, found that 48% of likely voters support Democrat James Talarico for U.S. Senate and 46% support Republican Ken Paxton — a 2-point lead within the poll's 3.1 percentage points margin of error.
The Cook Political Report also published a battleground poll, released Oct. 21, on the Texas Senate race showing Talarico leading Republican Paxton 49% to 44% — a 5-point lead outside the poll's 3.2 percentage points margin of error.
Here's a closer look at what the two competing polls say and how they compare with other recent October polls as Texas enters the last
week of early voting before Election Day.
Emerson College poll shows pathway, warning signs for James Talarico, Ken Paxton
The Emerson poll, released Oct. 22, shows Talarico's advantage is within its 3.1 percentage points margin of error; it was conducted Oct. 17-19 among 1,000 Texas likely voters — a statistical tie. The poll also found 1% of respondents supported Libertarian Ted Brown.
When the poll asked the 5% of undecided voters which candidate they leaned toward, Talarico's support rose to 49%, Paxton's to 48%, and Brown's to 3%.
"Since August, Talarico's support has slowly inched up by about a point each month, from 46% to 48%, while Paxton has hovered between 46% and 47%," Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “If support for the Libertarian candidate, who is at 3% on the final ballot, melts between now and Election Day, Paxton will likely see his vote share increase, as these third-party voters are primarily independents or Republicans. If it holds, Talarico benefits."
Cook Political Report shows what voters think about Paxton, Talarico
The Cook poll, released Oct. 21, shows Talarico's lead within its 3.2 percentage points margin of error. It was conducted Oct. 9-13 by Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group among 934 Texas likely voters.
Cook's analysis of the poll, written by Amy Walter, editor-in-chief and publisher, found voters trust Talarico more than Paxton on the three main issues that about nine in 10 Texans rate as important or very important to them:
- Fighting corruption in Washington — Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%.
- Getting inflation and the cost of living under control — Talarico 49%, Paxton 45%.
- Dealing with the economy — Talarico 48%, Paxton 45%,
By comparison, 61% of Texas voters rate immigration and the border — the issue voters say they trust Paxton, 49% to 45%, more to handle — as important or very important to their vote.
Recent poll numbers for Texas Senate race
A Fox News pollreleased Oct. 21 showed Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton tied at 49% each among likely Texas voters in the nationally watched Texas Senate race.
This marks a drop from Talarico's two-point lead, 51% to 49%, in Fox News'previous poll. Here's what other October polls have shown:
Recent Texas U.S. Senate race polls
- U of H Hobby poll(Oct. 18) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 46%
- Marist poll (Oct. 14) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%.
- UT/Texas Politics Project (Oct. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 47%.
- ReconMR (Oct. 13) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.
- UMass Lowell (Oct. 8) — Talarico 45%, Paxton 45%.
- YouGov poll (Oct. 6) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%.
- The New York Times (Oct. 3) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2 polls disagree on how close Texas US Senate race really is
