When Chris Stirewalt agreed to bring his show, "The Hill Sunday," to the State Fair of Texas this month, he figured he'd be covering a U.S. Senate race that was already over.
But two weeks out from early voting, he's still waiting for the part where Republican Ken Paxton pulls away from Democrat James Talarico. Stirewalt said something more is happening in Texas than in 2018, when Sen. Ted Cruz narrowly beat Democrat Beto O'Rourke.
"I think this one looks to be, at this point anyway, more about Ken Paxton than it is about the Democratic Party," Stirewalt said. "What I'm seeing right now isn't that Texas is turning blue, but that Texas, at least when it comes to the United States Senate, has some real qualms about staying red."
Stirewalt is no stranger
to elections. He made headlines as part of FOX News’ Decision Desk when the network called Arizona for Joe Biden in 2020, and he has years of political analysis experience from his time at FOX News before joining NewsNation in 2022.
Here's Stirewalt's analysis of recent polling as he believes there will be a "substantial undervote" between the governor's race and the Senate race come Election Day.
Paxton trails Talarico in Texas Senate race, Libertarian vote is Stirewalt's tell
While Texans and those across the nation are refreshing the same Texas Senate polls, Stirewalt is watching a different number, and it doesn't belong to either candidate.
"Here's a good index for how the race is going," Stirewalt said. "Just watch the Libertarian number. Those are protests. Those are going to be some actual Libertarians, but most of those voters are going to be conservative Republicans who are protesting Paxton's nomination and parking their votes over there."
Polls over the summer and early fall have shown that between 3% and 4% of voters remain undecided in the race, with Stirewalt saying Paxton would need to carry around 70% of them.
But for now, it remains to be seen whether Paxton can pull it off, as Trump's super PAC, MAGA Inc., has started spending money on the race. Stirewalt also said Paxton has to convince voters that Talarico is an unacceptable alternative and stop people from voting libertarian, skipping or writing in another candidate.
Recent polling over the summer and early fall has shown Talarico ahead of Paxton by more than the margin of error in a state that last elected a Democratic U.S. senator in 1988.
The governor's race is Stirewalt's benchmark for Republican strength in Texas
While the Texas Senate race is closely watched by the nation as it plays into the storyline of whether Republicans can keep control of the Senate, the real test for Texas Republicans will be the governor's race to see if the party can still remain at the helm.
"I think (Greg) Abbott will be the generic Republican vote in Texas," Stirewalt said. "That will be the watermark for how the electorate is in Texas this cycle, and it'll probably be enough. Maybe not, but probably be enough for him to win."
Stirewalt added that caveat, saying that Republicans all around are having a bad year, and the same goes for incumbents running. Also, as governor in a big state like Texas, he said that over time, a governor accumulates voters who dislike one thing or another, which could lead them to want change.
A recent October poll from The New York Times/Siena College shows Abbott's Democratic challenger, Gina Hinojosa, leading in the race within the poll's margin of error — a subtle shift from previous summer polls that had her trailing Abbott.
"For Abbott, the question of who those voters are that have a negative view of him personally, but are still choosing him, I don't know exactly who those voters are, but I'm going to guess that those are the same voters that Paxton needs to come in for him," Stirewalt said.
What to watch ahead of Election Day in Texas
Stirewalt said he hasn't finished picking his bellwether counties and wouldn't give away his trade secrets, but he will be watching voter turnout in the Rio Grande Valley, the suburbs, and the Texas Triangle on election night.
While polls typically provide a snapshot of voters' sentiments at a specific point in time, Stirewalt said he looks forward to diving deeper to better understand the state of the race by talking with Texans.
"Polling can do a lot, but man, you got to be there. You got to talk to people. You got to get out. You got to get around. You got to get a sense of things," Stirewalt said.
To do just that, Stirewalt is bringing "The Hill Sunday" to the Texas State Fair in Dallas on Oct. 11, saying that people who attend state fairs tend to be civically engaged.
"Data means a lot, advertising means a lot, but when you get right down to it, very often it's sort of like a livestock auction for voters," Stirewalt said. "They're taking a look at what's on the hoof, and they're making a snap decision based on the feeling they get."
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Chris Stirewalt says Texas Senate race is about Paxton, not a blue shift
