Texas Democrats haven't won a statewide race in more than 30 years; however, a new poll suggests they've got a real shot at two of the biggest ones this November.
Marist Pollreleased its findings on Sept. 23, showing Democrats within reach in both the Texas U.S. Senate and governor's race
, as Democratic candidates edge out Republicans in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 1994.In the Texas Senate race, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton among registered voters statewide, 50% to 44% — outside the poll's 4.4-percentage-point margin of error.
In the gubernatorial contest, Democrat Gina Hinojosa leads Republican incumbent Greg Abbott by 49% to 46%, but the race is a statistical tie within the margin
of error.
Here's what the poll found across the two races and how they stack up against other recent polls from September.
James Talarico continues poll lead against Ken Paxton in Texas Senate race
The September Marist Poll, which surveyed 1,139 Texas registered voters from Sept. 17-20, showed Talarico is receiving a majority of support among independents (55%).
However, it also found that regardless of whom they support, 52% of voters overall think Paxton will win the Senate race.
The poll also included a generic congressional ballot question and found that 49% of registered voters said they would support the Democratic candidate, compared with 46% who said they were more likely to support the Republican candidate. 60% of voters also think the Republican running for Congress will win
This differs from October 2024 — during the Harris-Trump presidential election — when Republicans led Democrats by 7 points, 53% to 46%, on the ballot.
The poll also found that 39% of Texas voters are more likely to say their congressional vote is mostly against President Trump than the 25% who say their vote is in support of him, with 34% saying the president is not a factor in their vote. Of those who say President Trump is not a factor, a majority approve of the president's job performance.
Gina Hinojosa is statistically tied with Greg Abbott in the Texas governor's race
In the governor's race, Hinojosa is receiving the support of 52% of independents, but 68% of registered voters overall think Abbott will be reelected.
The poll also found that 38% of Texas voters say their personal finances have worsened over the last year, and another 38% say they have stayed about the same.
In Texas, 23% of voters report their financial picture has improved, while 60% of Democrats are more likely than Republicans (17%) to say their family finances have gotten worse in the last 12 months.
Recent Texas U.S. Senate race polls
Here's what September polls have shown so far:
- Texas Southern University (Sept. 22) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%.
- ReconMR Texas Poll (Sept. 17) — Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%.
- Emerson College (Sept. 17) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%.
- Mason-Dixon Polling & Research (Sept. 15) — Talarico 46%, Paxton 43%.
- SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 45%.
- AARP (Sept. 10) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 44%.
- N+ Univision (Sept. 9) — Talarico 48%, Paxton 43%.
Recent Texas governor's race polls
Here's a look at recent September polling as the race enters its final stretch:
- Texas Southern University (Sept. 22) — Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 45%.
- Emerson College Polling (Sept. 17 ) — Abbott 49%, Hinojosa 46%.
- ReconMR Texas poll (Sept. 17) — Hinojosa 49%, Abbott 45%.
- Mason-Dixon Polling (Sept. 15) — Abbott 48%, Hinojosa 41%.
- SoCal Strategies (Sept. 13) — Abbott 52%, Hinojosa 44%.
- N+ Univision(Sept. 9) — Abbott 47%, Hinojosa 47%.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: New poll puts Texas Senate, governor's races in play for Democrats
