A new poll suggests a U.S. House seat in South Texas could flip from red to blue — a seat once considered mostly safe at the start of the election cycle.
A new October poll from Texas Southern University found that Democrat Bobby Pulido, the Tejano singer-songwriter, leads incumbent Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, 51% to 44%, in Texas’ 15th Congressional District.
The poll was conducted Oct. 13-16 among 650 likely voters in the district and has a 3.8% margin of error.
The new poll follows Cook Political Report, which has shifted its rating in the race over the past few months. In July, it shifted the race from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican," saying that, because of unique factors, "De La Cruz faces a serious challenge from Tejano musician
Pulido."
However,in September, the report revisited the race and moved it from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up" citing that De La Cruz has struggled to consolidate support among Republicans and conservative-leaning independents who swung hard toward Trump in the last cycle, partly because of Pulido's celebrity status in the Texas Rio Grande Valley.
"While the partisanship of the district barely changed after the new lines were drawn, nearly 60% of it is new to De La Cruz," Cook's September analysis said. "High Democratic enthusiasm due to the competitive Senate race is also working in Pulido’s favor; the same polls show (James) Talarico carrying the district."
What to know about Texas' 15 Congressional District
De La Cruz first won the seat in 2022, with 53% of the vote and won reelection in 2024 with 57% of the vote — a 14-point win over the Democratic candidate.
It was also one of the districts affected by the2025 mid-decade redistricting map Texas Republicans pushed through, but it remains a Republican-friendly district.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Once-safe GOP seat in South Texas now a toss-up, poll finds
