NFL Week 5 game picks: Odds and expert predictions for every matchup

The first month of the 2026 NFL regular season is complete and a distinct pecking order is beginning to emerge. The Week 5 schedule should provide more clarity with a couple gigantic matchups that could

prove to be important results later this fall when division titles and playoff spots are determined.

A crucial "Thursday Night Football" game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys, and another intriguing international game in London on Sunday, Oct. 11, between the Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars gets the action started. The early afternoon window is highlighted by a rivalry matchup pitting the Chicago Bears against the Green Bay Packers, as well as an AFC clash featuring the surprising Las Vegas Raiders and the defending conference champion New England Patriots.

The highlight of the late afternoon window is the first meeting between the San Francisco 49ers and defending Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks since the Seahawks won last year's NFC divisional round playoff game in January. A star-studded "Monday Night Football" matchup with the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams will cap off another meaningful weekend in the NFL.

Here's a look at some early expert picks, predictions and odds for every game during Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season:

NFL Week 4 game predictions, picks

Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Tuesday, Oct. 6 at 1:40 p.m. ET.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys

• Date: Thursday, Oct. 8
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
• TV: None
• Streaming: Prime Video, NFL+
• Spread: Cowboys (-8)

Arizona Republic: Cowboys 30, Bucs 20

"No Baker Mayfield, no chance? Jalon Daniels did some nice things in his first start in NFL Week 4, but he is an undrafted rookie QB. Dak Prescott and Dallas will be able to outscore Tampa Bay to move above .500, while the Buccaneers will fall to 0-5."

Sports Illustrated: Cowboys win, Bucs cover big spread

"The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense has been bad this year, and Jalon Daniels is going to get another start, but can't lay this many points on this Cowboys team based on how truly awful their defense is. They rank 31st in opponent expected points added per play, 32nd in opponent success rate, 32nd in defensive DVOA, and last in opponent yards per play, giving up 6.4 yards per snap."

Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 11
• Time: 9:30 a.m. ET
• Location: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium (London, England)
• TV: NFL Network
• Streaming: ESPN Unlimited, Fubo, NFL+
• Spread: Jaguars (-7)

Sporting News: Jaguars 27, Eagles 20

"The Eagles' offense is riddled with significant injuries, making it unclear who will be healthy enough to play in a trip across the pond. The Jaguars' defense is showing no mercy with relentless big plays led by a rising Travis Hunter. Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars' running game also has hit a tougher gear for Liam Coen. Jalen Hurts, much like the 2019 national championship game, is too shorthanded to outduel Lawrence."

NFL Spin Zone: Jaguars 30, Eagles 16

"Philly's offense is in a rough spot. The injuries are mounting, and QB Jalen Hurts continues to prove why he's incapable of elevating that unit. His inability to target the middle of the field or play on time is something that keeps hurting the ceiling on offense. ... Vic Fangio's defense has been uncharacteristically bad this year, too. Overall, the Eagles are regressing, and the Jaguars feel like one of the best teams in football at the moment."

NFL POWER RANKINGS: No. 1 spot changes hands for third consecutive week

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 11
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: NFL Sunday Ticket (YouTube), Fubo
• Spread: Bears (-3)

CBS Sports: Bears 30, Packers 23

"Ben Johnson has designed such a perfect offense that it doesn't even matter who's under center. The Bears were down to their third-string QB (Case Keenum) in Week 3 and they still put up 375 yards of offense, which is more than the Packers have put up in three of their four games this year. In Week 4, Johnson gave the starting QB job to someone else (Tyson Bagent) and the Bears racked up nearly 500 yards of offense. ... So Johnson has the better offense, and also, he hates the Packers."

New York Post: A Bears win is the safe bet

"Green Bay hasn’t played well for a full game yet this year, while Chicago made easy work of the Jets last week. ... Chicago is No. 8 in DVOA this season, while the Packers are all the way down to No. 27."

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Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 11
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: NFL Sunday Ticket (YouTube), Fubo
• Spread: Bengals (-7.5)

Sporting News: Bengals 27, Dolphins 14

"Count on the Bengals cleaning up their turnover woes of the past two weeks and supporting their defense better on the road. This is an OK game for Ja'Marr Chase to miss as Joe Burrow has plenty of pop around him, including sparkplug former Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki."

Arizona Republic: Bengals 27, Dolphins 24

"Is this the week that Malik Willis and the Dolphins will break through for their first win of the season? We don't see it happening, no matter how depleted Cincinnati might be. Joe Burrow will find a way to lead the Bengals to a win in Miami."

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 11
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxsborough, Massachusetts)
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: NFL Sunday Ticket (YouTube), Fubo
• Spread: Patriots (-3.5)

CBS Sports: Patriots 27, Raiders 24

"This feels like a game where (Drake) Maye will be asked to throw 20 or 25 passes and then McDaniels is going to let his two running backs (Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson) do the rest. The Raiders are definitely a good team, but just don't like this spot for them. They're coming off a tough loss to a division rival, and now, they have to fly all the way across the country. Also, the Raiders beat Mike Vrabel in his first game ever as the Patriots' coach last season, and he seems like the kind of guy who would hold a grudge over that."

Sports Illustrated: Patriots win and cover

"A major concern ... about the Raiders is that they continue to struggle to run the ball. They rank 29th in rush EPA and 30th in rush success rate. That means, in order for them to move the ball offensively, they have to rely on Kirk Cousins' arm. While that has worked to a certain extent early in the season, do you trust him that much moving forward?"

Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans Saints

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 11
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: NFL Sunday Ticket (YouTube), Fubo 
• Spread: Vikings (-2)

Sporting News: Saints 23, Vikings 20

"The Vikings cannot find offensive rhythm and consistency and there's potential Justin Jefferson will miss his return to the state of Louisiana. Minnesota's defense has taken advantage of some weaker offenses. New Orleans is not that with Tyler Shough chucking in the Superdome for Kellen Moore. The Vikings are overdue to be nipped and it happens to take them from the undefeated ranks."

NFL Spin Zone: Vikings 20, Saints 17

"Minnesota may have to consistently win with the defense if Murray and the offense can't get going, but there is reason to believe that the unit can as Murray gets more reps under his belt. The Saints are a fun team and will continue to be a fun team. Tyler Shough feels like the real deal ... The battle-tested Vikings are the safer bet ... despite this game being in New Orleans. Minnesota may have to continue winning in low-scoring games, but that's something they appear to be able to do."

Cleveland Browns vs New York Jets

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 11
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, New Jersey)
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: NFL Sunday Ticket (YouTube), Fubo
• Spread: Jets (-2)

ESPN: Take the points with the Browns

"Expect head coach Todd Monken to lead with running back Quinshon Judkins. Downhill schemes, control tempo – and take shots in the pass game. Cleveland can create explosive plays on the perimeter. Take the points here, as the Cleveland defense limits Geno Smith."

Arizona Republic: Browns 21, Jets 17

"Geno Smith and the Jets have lost three straight after starting the season with a win. Deshaun Watson and the Browns have won three straight after starting the season with a loss. Those streaks will continue with Cleveland's defense making some big plays on New York."

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 11
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: NFL Sunday Ticket (YouTube), Paramount+, Fubo
• Spread: Steelers (-2.5)

Sports Illustrated: Take the Steelers at home

"The Colts are in an extremely tough spot in this game. They're coming off an international game and now have to play on the road against a team that's coming off a mini-bye, as the Steelers haven't played since last Thursday Night Football. ... (The Colts) enter this week ranking dead last in the NFL in net yards per play at -1.7. To be fair, they have had a relatively tough schedule to begin the season, with games against the Ravens, Chiefs, and Texans, but their defense has been bad throughout."

BetMGM: Steelers win

"Arguably no team looked better than the Colts as a 4.5-point favorite against the Commanders in London. Indianapolis won 30-13 in a game where the margin flattered the favorites. Yards per play finished 5.2-3.9 in Washington’s direction. ... Incredibly, the Colts won despite losing the turnover battle. Washington committed 10 penalties and failed twice from the red zone. ... Over the previous two games, Pittsburgh ranks fourth in rushing expected points added per play and eighth in rushing success rate."

Houston Texans vs Tennessee Titans

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 11
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: NFL Sunday Ticket (YouTube), Fubo
• Spread: Texans (-7)

Sporting News: Texans 17, Titans 14

"Something has to give to get one of these two 0-4 AFC South rivals off the mat. The Battle for Houston goes to its current team with C.J. Stroud and the offense providing the big lift while the struggling defense gets a break against a flustered fading Cam Ward."

Sportsnaut: Texans 24, Titans 14

"C.J. Stroud, when he has Nico Collins, has looked much better than he did late last year and the Titans offense certainly doesn’t have the passing attack at the level that can cause problems for Houston’s secondary. If the Texans don’t win this, heads need to roll in Houston."

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 11
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• Location: Northwest Stadium (Landover, Maryland)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: NFL Sunday Ticket (YouTube), Fubo
• Spread: Commanders (-3.5)

ESPN: Commanders win and cover

"We shouldn't put too much stock in the Commanders' offensive struggles in London, considering they had to put third-string QB Athan Kaliakmanis into action midgame. But there were some positive signs elsewhere: Washington recorded the highest pass block win rate and second-highest pass rush win rate in Week 4 entering 'Sunday Night Football.' Plus, no matter who starts at quarterback for Washington, we know they'll be going against a backup in Jameis Winston."

New York Post: Take the Giants

"This line seems to imply that Jayden Daniels will be active for the Commanders, but there’s really nothing that points to that being the case. Add-in the fact that Marcus Mariota was also declared out at halftime of Sunday’s game in London and Washington may really be down to a third-string quarterback when they face the division rival Giants. ... This line could flip dramatically (based on Daniels' availability)."

Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Chargers

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 11
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: Paramount+, Fubo, NFL+
• Spread: Broncos (-3.5)

Sports Illustrated: Chargers cover spread

"The Broncos have some injury issues heading into this week. ... (with) two starting corners and an important piece on offense (Pat Bryant) that could miss this road game, which will hurt them more than you think. The Chargers are certainly deserving of criticism this season, but people need to wake up to Bo Nix. ... He's 23rd in adjusted expected points added per play and 27th in completion percentage over expected. This team is now 26th in net yards per play at -0.7, below the Chargers, who come in at 17th in that metric at -0.3."

Covers.com: Take the Chargers

"Denver is scoring the fewest first-half points per game (3.3), and Pro Football Focus ranks QB Bo Nix 35th out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks. Broncos starting cornerbacks Patrick Surtain II and Riley Moss were injured in their 24-14 loss to the San Francisco 49ers Sunday, too."

Detroit Lions vs Arizona Cardinals

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 11
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: NFL Sunday Ticket (YouTube), Fubo
• Spread: Lions (-4.5)

Arizona Republic: Lions 30, Cardinals 20

"The Lions are 2-0 at home and 0-2 on the road, but we have a feeling that Jared Goff and Detroit's offense are going to get very comfortable at State Farm Stadium. Jacoby Brissett and Arizona will lose a fourth straight game."

NFL Spin Zone: Lions 34, Cardinals 33

"Detroit is pretty fortunate that the offense is so good, as they could genuinely be 0-4 if not for Jared Goff and that crew. It feels like the only way the Lions can win is by getting into a shootout, and with the talent that the Arizona Cardinals have on offense, that could again be the case in Week 5."

San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 11
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• Location: Lumen Field (Seattle)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: NFL Sunday Ticket (YouTube), Fubo
• Spread: Seahawks (-3)

CBS Sports: 49ers 27, Seahawks 24

"If (49ers coach Kyle) Shanahan has one advantage going into this game, it's that Brock Purdy is playing the best football of his career. The 49ers QB hasn't been sacked a single time this season, marking just the third time in the Super Bowl era that a QB has led his team to a 4-0 start without being sacked. ... Although Lumen Field can get loud, no one has been able to handle that better than Purdy, who has the best record (4-1) of any visiting QB in Seattle."

Sporting News: 49ers 24, Seahawks 20

"San Francisco's offense is rolling with Brock Purdy locked in, George Kittle showing little sign of slowing down and Christian McCaffrey still doing his thing. Deebo Samuel also has felt back at home and Mike Evans is staying on the field. That's a lot for the Seahawks' defense to contain. Seattle is hurting in the backfield and can't get it done with just Jaxon Smith-Njigba."

Watch Ravens vs. Falcons with Peacock

Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons

• Date: Sunday, Oct. 11
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
• TV: NBC
• Streaming: Peacock, Fubo, NFL+
• Spread: Falcons (-3)

Arizona Republic: Ravens 28, Falcons 27

"Lamar Jackson's status looms large over this game, but the Ravens' defense will step up to help the team eke out a win over Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons in Atlanta."

Sports Illustrated: Bet the Falcons now

"Maybe this is a sell-high spot on the Falcons, or maybe they truly are a completely different team with Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback. One thing we know for certain is that their defense has been one of the best units in the NFL to begin the season ... If (Lamar Jackson) can't go for Baltimore, don't be surprised if Atlanta closes as the betting favorite ahead of kickoff on Sunday night. Jump on the Falcons as underdogs while you can."

Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles Rams

• Date: Monday, Oct. 12
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
• TV: ABC, ESPN
• Streaming: ESPN Unlimited, Fubo, NFL+
• Spread: Rams (-2.5)

CBS Sports: Rams 34, Bills 31

"The Bills have given up the sixth-most passing yards in the NFL this season, and now, they have to face the reigning MVP (Matthew Stafford) and they have to figure out how to stop both Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. This is a nightmare matchup for the Bills and if they had anyone besides Josh Allen at quarterback ... pick the Rams by double digits."

Yahoo! Sports: Take the Rams

"Star wideout Puka Nacua looked fantastic and reported no setbacks (he had 12 targets, nine receptions, 125 yards and a 2-yard rushing touchdown in Week 4). Aaron Donald might be back for the Rams after missing last game with back soreness. On the other side, the Bills dealt with more injuries to WR DJ Moore, DT Ed Oliver, CB Christian Benford and safety Jordan Poyer. Losing Moore might be OK considering the rise of Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid this season, but the defensive injuries are a real problem. Matthew Stafford will be able to lean on a strong run game to create clean pockets."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL Week 5 game picks: Odds and expert predictions for every matchup

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