Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association met for about an hour Thursday in New York, as they do just nearly every week, this time talking about the domestic violence policy and the debt-service rules.
The meeting ended, they promised to convene again next week, and will continue to discuss non-core economic issues for the next few months.
When it comes to talking about that monstrous elephant in the room, the one that’s expected to result in a Dec. 1 lockout that could last anywhere from a few months to Memorial Day weekend to the entire season, that’s going to have to wait.
Those serious talks may not transpire until February, just like the 99-day
lockout in 2021, when nothing became urgent until spring training was about to commence.
But once they do, and MLB reiterates their demand for a salary cap, and the union again tells them to take a hike, circle last Friday on the CBA negotiations calendar.
This was the date the Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays became the first teams in baseball to clinch playoff berths. Yes, the two smallest markets in all of baseball are the first ones invited to the October dance.
And the proof, the union declares, that baseball does not have a competitive balance problem.
The Brewers, who reside in the smallest market in baseball and have the 11th-lowest payroll, are back in the postseason for the eighth time in the last nine years, and are about to clinch their fourth consecutive NL Central title over the Chicago Cubs.
The Rays, another small-market team with the seventh-smallest payroll, are in the playoffs for the sixth time in the last nine years and about to clinch the AL East over the powerful and rich New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox.
So, what’s the issue, the union asks?
Well, not to take anything away from the Brewers or the Rays, MLB says, but where are their World Series trophies?
The Brewers have been around 58 seasons, and they still are looking for their first World Series championship, last winning the pennant in 1982.
The Rays have been in existence for 29 years, have been to the World Series twice – including the 2020 COVID year – but don’t have a title either.
That’s a problem, MLB insists, with plenty of research and fancy charts to back their claims that they have the worst competitive balance in North American sports.
While the Royals are the lone small-market team to win a World Series title since 2012, seven small-market teams have won titles during the same time span in the NBA and NFL, and five in the NFL. Yes, that includes three Super Bowl championships in five years by the Chiefs, who are located just across the parking lot from the Royals.
MLB also reminds you that last year’s NBA Finals featured the Indiana Pacers and Oklahoma City Thunder, two markets so small that they only have Triple-A baseball teams, and aren’t even under consideration for expansion in the near future.
They’ll emphasize that while small-market teams in other sports can retain their stars, teams like the Brewers and Rays constantly are forced to trade them away.
Will there be a salary cap?
While Oklahoma City spent $822 million in the offseason to bring back their core stars, the Brewers, who had the best regular-season record in baseball last season, traded away ace Freddy Peralta believing they couldn’t afford to keep him once he hit free agency. It has become an annual tradition for for the Brewers who also dumped Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes and All-Star closers Josh Hader and Devin Williams also a year before free agency. And once players hit free agency, most go to the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees and Phillies, who have spent more money in free agency since 2021 than 22 other small- and middle-sized market teams.
Money doesn’t mean everything, of course, as the Mets have proven, but Atlanta is the only team in the last eight years to win a World Series without having a top-10 payroll. Just 22.5% of the teams reaching the NLCS and ALCS the past 10 years have had a payroll in the lower half.
This is why MLB is insisting on a salary cap, including a salary floor, with the Dodgers’ current $378.3 million payroll about $300 million more than the Cleveland Guardians, and at least $200 million more than 25 teams in baseball. Their $160 million luxury tax penalty last year exceeded the total player payroll of 16 teams.
It’s simply a matter of leveling the playing field, MLB officials say.
“We need to make sure that fans and markets at the beginning of the season have a realistic belief that their team has a chance to win," commissioner Rob Manfred said at the All-Star Game. “I think that we need a system where fans, particularly in smaller markets, can have some hope that the players that are signed and developed by their organizations can actually stay there through free agency.
"And, honestly, I think we need a system where there is a more robust free agent market so if you don't want to go to New York or Los Angeles, you have a realistic opportunity to get a viable free agent contract."
Yet, if market size and revenue mean so much, the union argues, then why do four of MLB’s worst teams reside in the three biggest markets – the New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals?
And why do the Mets have a 40-year World Series drought? Why do the Cubs and White Sox, residing in the third-largest market in the country, have only one World Series title apiece since 1908? And how do you explain three teams who have bottom-seven payrolls in position to be in the postseason with the White Sox and Cleveland Guardians joining the Rays?
So sorry, if the union doesn’t buy the argument.
Besides, if competitive balance is truly MLB’s biggest concern, the union points out that there have been 16 different World Series champions in the last 25 years, with 23 teams reaching the World Series.
In fact, eight teams since 2002 have ended World Series droughts of at least 50 years.
And, please, don’t get the union started with teams complaining about money woes, even with teams insisting their paper losses are real. The recent historic sales of the Los Angeles Angels ($4 million) and San Diego Padres ($3.9 million) have increased the average franchise value from $2.95 billion to more than $4 million alone in the last six months, according to CNBC.
This is why the union steadfastly refuses to budge in any attempt by MLB to impose a salary cap. It doesn’t matter that MLB is willing to reduce free agency from six years to five years for players at least 30, eliminate the qualifying offer free-agent system, increasing the minimum salary from $780,000 to $1 million, increase the pre-arbitration bonus pool from $50 million in 2026 to $65 million in 2027 and $75 million within five years, along with other bells and whistles.
It means absolutely, the union argues, since all of the proposals include a salary cap, and will refer to their statement on June 24.
“These misleading offers are designed to look like 'improvements' but are of little or no value, given that they are expressly conditioned on agreement to the league’s cap system which eliminates the free market, and ensures gains for one player only come at the expense of another."
So, it goes, ‘round and ‘round.
Will there be an MLB lockout?
The two sides will slowly work out agreements on the intricacies of the CBA, but when Dec. 1 rolls around, the monstrous obstacle of the salary cap will still be hovering, with everyone from players to front-office executives, to scouts to umpires wondering how long the stalemate will last.
Teams already are slashing their scouting and player developments, and many of those that remain have expiring contracts.
No one knows how long the eventual lockout will last, but there is fear, knowing there could be several paychecks missed with mortgages to be paid and mouths to feed.
There are plenty of theories on the end date, with a growing sentiment that baseball may not be played until Memorial Day weekend, but no one knows.
Not Manfred. Not Meyer. Not the owners. And not the players.
All that’s known is that with just two weeks remaining until the postseason, there will be intense scrutiny on the postseason fates of Milwaukee and Tampa Bay.
A Brewers-Rays World Series would be a TV ratings nightmare, but, oh, what a dream matchup for the player union.
Who ever would have imagined these two franchises could wind up playing an integral role in not only labor talks, but MLB’s future.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Inside MLB's high-stakes labor war: Will we have baseball in 2027?
