President Donald Trump and Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico are playing a version of Texas hold'em — with a high-stakes contest for one of the most closely watched Senate races of the year on the line, and no time to bluff or fold.
Trump, who is campaigning for Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton, and Talarico scheduled competing rallies in Lubbock, Texas, on Oct. 27. Trump will also be campaigning earlier in Corpus Christi during his fourth visit to the state since Labor Day.
The rival campaigns seem to agree on where to spend their time. Talarico held a rally in Corpus Christi on Oct. 24.
The reason for all the attention is that the outcome in Texas will be key to determining control of the Senate, where Republicans now hold a 53-47
majority. A Talarico victory would narrow that margin and threaten Trump’s legislative agenda and judicial confirmations for the final two years of his term.
The race has been polarizing. Members of the Republican Bush political dynasty sided with Talarico in their home state. But Elon Musk, a key Trump ally who calls Talarico "a far left extremist," supported Paxton with more than $150 million in a state key to his business empire.
Another reason for the spotlight on the state is the competitiveness of the race. Texas hasn’t elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994. But Talarico and Paxton are in a dead heat, according to an average of recent polling by Real Clear Politics.
Trump has showered attention on Texas. He attended the first midterm GOP convention in Dallas on Sept. 9 and 10, visited a Peterbilt truck factory in Denton on Oct. 1 and San Antonio on Oct. 7.
Texas is expensive as both sides bear down for final stretch
The Texas Senate campaign will be among the most expensive in history. Talarico raised more than $146 million through Oct. 14, according to Federal Election Commission reports. Paxton raised $22 million, including for the Republican primary, when he knocked off four-term Sen. John Cornyn.
For comparison, candidates in the Georgia Senate race in 2022 raised a combined $260 million, according to OpenSecrets.org, a nonpartisan group that tracks campaign spending.
Groups outside the Texas campaigns have spent much more. Outside groups spent $153 million opposing Talarico and $13 million supporting him through Oct. 20, according to OpenSecrets. Outside groups spent $91 million supporting Paxton and $41 million opposing him.
How are Trump and Talarico framing the contest?
Both sides agree Trump is the focus of the campaign, with the president inviting voters to pretend he's on the ballot.
Trump contends he needs Paxton, the state attorney general, to support his priorities. In the face of criticism over high gas and grocery prices, Trump promotes domestic energy production that is dear to Texans. He insists the war with Iran was worth the cost to prevent Tehran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
"A vote for Ken Paxton is a vote to save Texas and defend everything that made Texas great and makes America great," Trump told a crowd in San Antonio. "And I want you to know that the extreme dangers of having somebody like this Dumocrat − it's a Dumocrat because their policy is so bad."
Talarico, a former public school teacher, campaigns against political corruption and corporate money in elections. He compared his campaign to a David-and-Goliath battle against deep-pocketed interests.
"David might not have been as strong or as big as Goliath," Talarico told the crowd in Corpus Christi. "He might not have had as many weapons, but he had hope. He had faith, and he had a slingshot. Corpus Christi, you are my slingshot. And when we come together, those Goliaths are going to know what hit them."
Musk draws spotlight supporting Paxton
Musk, the multibillionaire Trump supporter, has contributed $158 million to support Paxton.
The generosity was nothing new. Musk had contributed nearly $300 million to Republican groups in 2024. He became top adviser to Trump as leader of the Department of Government Efficiency.
Musk owns the social media platform X and is the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, which has its corporate headquarters, a rocket testing facility, a spaceport for its Starship and a Starlink manufacturing plant in Texas.
Talarico argued that Paxton "is funded by one dude" while the Democrat’s campaign received nearly $140 million from individuals.
"Elon Musk is trying to buy this Senate seat in Texas," Talarico said Oct. 20. "Elon Musk wants our land. He wants our water. He wants our tax dollars. And he wants his very own personal United States senator."
Relatives of former GOP President Bush support Talarico
Talarico got a boost from the support of former GOP President George W. Bush’s daughter Barbara and brother Neil.
Neil Bush said in a lengthy post on social media that he broke with tradition because of Paxton’s judgment and conduct. Paxton joined other states challenging the results of the 2020 election and he was impeached in the state House over bribery allegations, although acquitted in the state Senate.
"My vote was motivated by two things: deep concern about Ken Paxton's record and genuine admiration for the character and principles I see in James Talarico," Bush wrote.
Barbara Bush contributed $2,500 to Lone Star Rising, a political action committee supporting Talarico.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Trump, Talarico to hold dueling rallies in Texas with Senate control at stake
