Gianni Infantino took over as FIFA president in the wake of a crisis. The 2015 "FIFAGate" indictments by the U.S. Department of Justice was an existential threat to FIFA's legitimacy, and led to the resignation of longtime president Sepp Blatter.
There was plenty of optimism around Infantino's 2016 election. After he was voted in, the former UEFA secretary general declared that he was ready to turn the page to a new chapter in FIFA's history.
"FIFA has gone through sad times, moments of crisis, but those times are over," Infantino said after his election. "We need to implement the reform and implement good governance and transparency."
He added: “We will restore the image of FIFA and the respect of FIFA. And everyone in the world will applaud us."
Infantino talked a good game, but his supporters felt at the time it was more than just lip service.
"He is not a politician and he is not an ego. FIFA has been dominated by egos for a very long time. He is the type of person who will just get on with the job," said English Football Association chairman Greg Dyke.
Norway's Karen Espelund, a member of UEFA's executive committee, added: "We needed someone credible, we needed a clean winner, a clean man. I believe we have that in Gianni."
A decade later, Infantino's reputation is in tatters. His failed push for private investment went down in flames last week, a failure on every conceivable level.
After a World Cup that saw FIFA rake in record profits, the unthinkable has become possible: Infantino could be on his way out.
But there is a long way to go until that possibility becomes an actual reality. Let's examine the ways that Infantino could be removed, and the chances that he could actually be on his way out.
How could Infantino be removed from FIFA?
The first and most obvious way Infantino could leave is if he resigns. But that appears unlikely, despite the fact he is hemorrhaging support from some of his top deputies.
FIFA chief operating officer Kevin Lamour said last week that the private investment idea was "the project of one person."
FIFA secretary general Mattias Grafstrom, Infantino's second in command, said this week that Infantino's project was “a sad and reproachable series of events."
Former U.S. Soccer president Carlos Cordeiro, who was a senior adviser for Infantino, quit last week due to the proposal.
But given what we know about Infantino, voluntarily giving up power seems out of character. On Wednesday, he is holding a meeting with FIFA executives in Morocco in an attempt to consolidate support.
So what are the other alternatives? There is a way to force Infantino out, but it would not be easy — and perhaps not practical.
According to FIFA statutes, an extraordinary congress can be called if one-fifth of the 211 FIFA member associations "make such a request in writing."
At that extraordinary congress, a simple majority of the 211 MAs could vote to remove Infantino through a vote of no confidence.
But that isn't as easy as it sounds. For one, the extraordinary congress would take place "within three months" of the request. Would it be worth the trouble with a presidential election in just seven months?
Additionally, removing Infantino wouldn't mean much without a potential replacement. That once again brings us to the most likely way that Infantino would actually exit FIFA.
When is Infantino up for re-election?
The 77th FIFA Congress will take place in Rabat, Morocco, on March 18, 2027. The presidential election will be held at that congress as Infantino seeks a fourth and final term.
Less than a month ago, Infantino's re-election seemed a mere formality. The Guardian reported before the World Cup final that he had received the support of more than 200 of the 211 member associations.
But the likelihood of Infantino facing a contested election now appears to be growing.
Concacaf has been highly critical of Infantino's proposal and Infantino himself. That may be a prelude to its president Victor Montagliani running against Infantino, which he is reportedly considering.
Another possible candidate could be FIFA senior vice president and Asian Football Confederation president Sheikh Salman bin Ibrahim Al Khalifa, who ran against Infantino in 2016 and has also been critical of his proposal.
Candidates for FIFA president must declare their intent to run by November 18.
Could Infantino lose the election?
This is the biggest and most complicated question to answer at the present moment.
A simple majority of votes is needed to win the FIFA presidency, which equates to 106 votes from the 211 member associations. The vote breakdown by confederations is as follows:
- Europe (UEFA): 55
- Africa (CAF): 54
- Asia (AFC): 46
- North America, Central America, Caribbean (Concacaf): 35
- Oceania: 11
- South America (CONMEBOL): 10
Infantino's chances of winning over UEFA and Concacaf nations appear slim, but the president would need to lose more support to lose the election. The most vital blocs he must secure are those from Asia and Africa.
Infantino has worked hard to form alliances with some of the most powerful figures in the world, including leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and, of course, the United States. He could call on those relationships as he looks to maintain his grip on power.
This week has shown signs that Infantino may be holding onto his support from Africa, with the federations of Egypt, Morocco, Djibouti, Niger, Mauritania and DR Congo all issuing statements backing the embattled president.
Asia, on the other hand, looks more divided. The AFC has issued strong statement against Infantino's proposal, but there are also signs that he is maintaining support in Asia. Influential nations like Qatar and the UAE have offered their backing, while Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Lebanon, and Kuwait have also spoken in Infantino's favor.
On the other hand, Jordan Football Association President Ali bin Hussein accused Infantino of “blackmail” this week, showing that Asia is far from a united front at present.
If Sheikh Salman does run for FIFA president, Infantino's hold on Asian nations could grow more tenuous.
Meanwhile, CONMEBOL and Oceania have been notably silent, only issuing boilerplate statements on Infantino's proposal.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Will Gianni Infantino be ousted? How FIFA president could be removed
