Great expectations.
The Los Angeles Rams don’t exactly operate in a Dickensian world, but they will enter the 2026 NFL season with as much pomp and circumstance as any team in recent memory, the dynastic New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs included.
After arguably being the league’s second-best squad by the end of both the 2024 and ’25 campaigns, LA has embraced a Super Bowl-or-bust approach – coach Sean McVay and GM Les Snead following an active free agency period and fairly bizarre draft with the stunning acquisition of reigning Defensive Player of the Year Myles Garrett, perhaps the NFL’s preeminent talent, on June 1. Next? They might even get Aaron Donald, one of the greatest defensive players of all time, back in the fold.
I was ride-or-die
with the Rams throughout last season and – all credit to the Seattle Seahawks – I still think MVP Matthew Stafford and Co. were just a wonky bounce or two away from coasting to a second Super Bowl victory in five seasons. The arrivals of Garrett and former K.C. DBs Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, plus what seems the likely return of Donald, should obviously fortify what was often an imposing defense in 2025 – if one that seemed worn out by the end of the team’s second loss in Seattle by season’s end.
But while I'm very much buckled into a suddenly crowded bandwagon − along with most prominent betting services – the field, starting with the reigning champion Seahawks, is as compelling as it almost always is. Other serious challengers appear to be emerging in the NFC, while the AFC, home to seven of this season’s 10 new head coaches, projects as a mixed bag of potential contenders that includes the Chiefs and some of the usual suspects they’ve had to mostly fend off in recent seasons, last year’s disastrous showing notwithstanding.
So what exactly appears in the offing for this season? Will the Rams actually win it all or will there be a major (Oliver) Twist? Will they win a second Lombardi Trophy in their familiar SoFi Stadium confines, or will L.A. merely serve as the Super Sunday stage as a A Tale of Two (Other) Cities unfolds next Valentine’s Day?
Without further ado here are my annual record projections for all 32 teams, with bonus playoff and Super Bowl 61 predictions:
(A note on methodology: Using the most current information amid a few iterations of this exercise, I predict winners and losers for all 272 regular-season games to arrive at my projections. The outcomes allow me to apply tiebreakers, when needed, to determine and slot the 14-team playoff field – seedings in parentheses – before arriving at a champion. Warning, past performances, which have generally had a nice ROI, are no guarantee of future returns.)
NFC East
(3) Dallas Cowboys (11-6): After being extensively retooled with veteran and rookie acquisitions, it appears they’re poised to play "a lick of defense” after owner Jerry Jones lamented a unit that surrendered the most points in the league in 2025. If new DC Christian Parker can progress his side of the ball to average, then what ought to be an explosive offense should have enough firepower to get this team back atop the division … and maybe much further for a franchise that hasn’t reached the Super Bowl or NFC title game in more than three decades. Circle December, when Dallas faces the Seahawks, Rams and Jaguars, as an even more critical juncture than it typically is.
Washington Commanders (9-8): They’ve got a rookie offensive coordinator (David Blough) who was a backup quarterback in the league five minutes ago. Could take some time for him and third-year QB Jayden Daniels to get on the same page amid a challenging early slate, a stretch that could determine whether or not Washington gets back to the playoffs. A seemingly underpowered wideout corps adds to Daniels’ burden, but there’s certainly enough talent here for the Commanders to again be a factor.
Philadelphia Eagles (8-9): They’ve got a rookie offensive coordinator (Sean Mannion) who was a backup quarterback in the league five minutes ago. Could take some time for him and former Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts – will he be OK being under center more, using extensive pre-snap motion and delivering the ball quickly? – to get on the same page amid a challenging early slate, a stretch that could determine whether or not Philadelphia gets back to the playoffs. An almost entirely reconfigured wideout corps adds to Hurts’ burden, but there’s certainly enough talent here for the two-time defending division champs to again be a factor.
New York Giants (6-11): Optimism is justifiably running high at the outset of the John Harbaugh era, given the new coach won a Super Bowl and took the Ravens to the playoffs eight times … merely in the time since the Giants captured their last Lombardi Trophy more than 14 years ago. But let’s not forget the offensive core of QB Jaxson Dart, WR Malik Nabers and RB Cam Skattebo all got beaten up to varying degrees in 2025 – Nabers and Skattebo coming back from season-ending injuries – and are now tasked with learning a new playbook and philosophy. More than half of the defense's starters could be new, though that's probably a plus. Drawing a schedule that includes the NFC West’s powerhouses doesn’t help.
NFC North
(2) Chicago Bears (12-5): Regression is certainly possible given their reliance on a league-high 33 takeaways during last year’s magic carpet ride … plenty of that magic rubbing off on QB Caleb Williams’ right arm in the most high-leverage situations. The reigning division champs have also drawn the league’s most difficult schedule based on their opponents’ collective winning percentage in 2025 (.550). Yet overall progression in Year 2 under HC Ben Johnson is just as likely, assuming Williams and Co. continue to master an offense which spotlights a daunting run game and should get more from a diverse and talented group of pass catchers – perhaps enough to finally make Williams’ the 106-year-old franchise’s first 4,000-yard passer after he fell 58 yards short of the mark in 2025. Playing three of the first four games at Soldier Field should help.
(6) Detroit Lions (11-6): A team that tied for the league’s best record (15-2) in 2024 plummeted to the bottom of the division, though with a respectable 9-8 mark, last season. Moving forward, a last-place schedule should be a boon to a squad still teeming with talent. However new coordinator Drew Petzing might need to get a stacked offense humming quickly given the defense still appears hamstrung as stellar starting safeties Brian Branch (Achilles) and Kerby Joseph (knee) may take a while longer to get back into the lineup − and for a secondary that already shed CB Terrion Arnold.
Green Bay Packers (10-7): Given they’ve averaged 9.3 wins over the past four seasons, this outlook might be a touch generous – particularly given OLB Micah Parsons won’t be back in the lineup until October … at the earliest. TE Tucker Kraft is also coming back from a torn ACL, and Jordan Morgan is unproven as an NFL left tackle. It’s a lengthy way of saying this team could start slowly but finish fast – assuming Parsons is, say, 85% of the player we’re accustomed to seeing once he’s back in uniform. Home cooking could also fuel a strong stretch run, the Packers leaving Wisconsin just once after Dec. 6, at least until the playoffs start.
Minnesota Vikings (9-8): They’re a wild card – perhaps literally if newcomer Kyler Murray, who seems a mortal lock to earn the QB1 job coming out of training camp, quickly adapts to Kevin O’Connell’s offense and reignites his career in what’s a critically important season for the No. 1 pick of the 2019 draft. (Hey, if Sam Darnold can do it …) Getting the ball into WR Justin Jefferson’s hands more than 84 times would be a good start for Murray and O’Connell, though the performance of a defense with several new parts (especially up front) will likely be just as critical for a team that hasn’t won a playoff game in nearly seven years. Given the depth of this division, the Vikes won’t have the luxury of time to find their footing.
NFC South
(4) New Orleans Saints (10-7): In a perennially lackluster division, they finished strongly in 2025, going undefeated in December. RB Travis Etienne and first-round WR Jordyn Tyson should add juice to an offense that began to thrive once rookie QB Tyler Shough took the reins. Further buoyed by a top defense, though one that’s lost DL Bryan Bresee to a torn ACL, the Saints could be one of this year’s quiet contenders – assuming Shough can maintain his trajectory in Year 2. A last-place schedule – the NFC’s weakest (.434) – should also be an advantage, though the Saints got saddled with a tough starting assignment by opening at Detroit and Baltimore.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-9): They’ve been remarkably mediocre (35-33) in four seasons under HC Todd Bowles, though that will get you three division crowns in the NFC South. But the Bucs collapsed down the stretch last year, losing seven of their final nine games, have since said goodbye to mainstays Mike Evans and Lavonte David, and invited distraction amid the contractual impasses with team captains Baker Mayfield and Vita Vea. They likely remain good enough to vie for the division throne again, but beyond that?
Carolina Panthers (6-11): Assessing them very much depends upon the eye of the beholder, though second-year WR Tetairoa McMillan contends the Panthers are "very slept on." Yes, they’re fresh off winning the NFC South for the first time since 2017 – but they also backed into the division title amid losing three of their final four regular-season contests. Yes, they gave the Rams all they could handle in the wild-card round, but the Panthers also had six losses by double digits. Yes, there’s young talent like 2025 Offensive Rookie of the Year McMillan and major free-agent additions in LBs Devin Lloyd and Jaelan Phillips. But second-year pass rusher Nic Scourton has already been lost to a torn ACL, and the offensive line is a jumble of injuries and newcomers. As for Bryce Young? There are flashes, but not enough to compel the team to extend its inconsistent quarterback. Factor in their first-place schedule, and the Panthers seem like a good bet … to disappoint.
Atlanta Falcons (6-11): Little idea what to make of this team. It just hired a two-time Coach of the Year in Kevin Stefanski and has enviable young talent at the skill positions, RB Bijan Robinson as gifted as any player in the league. But James Pearce Jr., who had 10½ sacks and 44 pressures as a rookie, could be facing a lengthy suspension for his off-field conduct. Five of their first seven games are against 2025 playoff teams. And the quarterback position remains a festering problem, with seemingly scant likelihood that Tua Tagovailoa nor Michael Penix Jr. will sufficiently overcome their injury or inconsistency issues to dissuade new President of Football Matt Ryan from pursuing another QB next year … in the ongoing quest to replace former MVP Ryan himself. Still, Atlanta might have too many good players to organically land in the top five of the 2027 draft.
NFC West
(1) Los Angeles Rams (14-3): What else needs to be said about this would-be juggernaut? Sure, reigning MVP Matthew Stafford, 38, must continue to defy Father Time. WR Puka Nacua needs to stay out of the off-field headlines as he tries to convince the organization he's worthy of a bodacious bag. DC Chris Shula has those significant new parts to mesh – and maybe an old one if Donald unretires. At the very minimum, the special teams can’t be an Achilles heel. And the Seahawks remain a bugaboo. Still, the Rams have won 20 of their last 28 games, many of the losses over that stretch of the fluky variety, and have more star power than any team in the league. Anything less than a Lombardi would be a disappointment – especially since Stafford’s age and several expiring contracts, Nacua’s chief among them, could necessitate a drastically altered roster in 2027.
(5) Seattle Seahawks (14-3): Coming off a dominant performance in Super Bowl 60, the champs don’t return entirely intact – RB Kenneth Walker III, the Super Bowl MVP, and OC Klint Kubiak the chief defectors – but they’re largely running it back otherwise. And while the Rams made the headlines, the gritty, cohesive Seahawks remain in L.A.’s headspace after nearly going 3-0 against their divisional foes last season. Good luck finding any unit in the league more imposing than Seattle’s “Dark Side” defense. And if the culture coach Mike Macdonald has fostered continues to play dividends, a repeat could most certainly be in the cards.
(7) San Francisco 49ers (11-6): So now the Santa Clara electrical substation is affecting Kyle Shanahan’s judgment behind the wheel? Thankfully, he’ll be OK – and hopefully so will all of the other Niners (DE Nick Bosa, LB Fred Warner, TE George Kittle, among others) on the comeback from major injuries. Among the squad's other challenges are their residency in the NFC West, two international trips (Australia, Mexico) and what are close to wholesale changes in the wideout corps for QB Brock Purdy ... though the return of Deebo Samuel does provide familiarity with Ricky Pearsall already landing on IR. But a team that’s racked up double-digit victories in four of the past five seasons should hit that benchmark again.
Arizona Cardinals (2-15): With apologies to rookie QB Carson Beck, little reason to believe their season will be anything other than a ponderous march to the top-five draft pick that will allow them to find a more permanent replacement for Murray.
AFC East
(3) Buffalo Bills (11-6): New head coach (Joe Brady). New stadium. New (alternate) uniforms. New players (WR DJ Moore, OLB Bradley Chubb). New DC Jim Leonhard, who could be quite an X-factor given the dip that side of the ball has taken the past few years. But will they collectively add up to more than the same old Bills – good enough to fall agonizingly short of reaching the Super Bowl? In this seeming grab bag of a conference, just maybe.
(6) New England Patriots (10-7): They’re not going to catch anyone off guard this year, and a first-place schedule won’t help the cause – and it includes a 2025 playoff team in each of the Pats’ first four road games. Yet this is still a largely young and very formidable squad – one that might actually be a tougher out in 2026, even if the record doesn’t necessarily reflect it. TBD if coach Mike Vrabel's off-field behavior continues to resurface in dribs and drabs.
New York Jets (3-14): They picked three times in Round 1 of this year’s draft and are scheduled to do the same in 2027. In the interim, a team that was also active in free agency this year while turning over the roster but hits the road for four of its first six games probably shouldn’t expect to see many positive results in the win column before next year.
Miami Dolphins (1-16): This isn’t meant to disrespect first-year GM Jon-Eric Sullivan, rookie HC Jeff Hafley or their players. But there’s no denying that the Fins purged this roster, are cleaning up their salary cap and will predominantly roll with young and/or inexperienced starters in 2026, including first-time NFL QB1 Malik Willis. Miami very much looks like a team that could struggle to pass the ball and struggle to disrupt opposing air attacks. The Dolphins also somehow wound up with the AFC’s toughest schedule (opponents with a .542 winning percentage in 2025) – and that’s with the Jets on there twice. Ominous.
AFC North
(4) Cincinnati Bengals (11-6): They need some things – like for their sublimely talented but often brittle quarterback to stay in the lineup … and for a highly compensated offensive nucleus to deliver the goods … and for what’s been a dreadful defense to elevate to subpar, at minimum. Basically, this is Dallas East. But QB Joe Burrow appears ready to go, the defense received significant offseason investment, Zac Taylor is the only head coach in the division who was with his team last year and just two teams have weaker schedules than Cincy’s (opponents with a .450 winning percentage in 2025). Maybe the Bengals aren’t as complete as some of the NFC’s seemingly elite squads. But in what seems to be something of a wide-open AFC, perhaps Cincinnati is just as good a bet to get back to the SoFi Super Bowl stage they shared with the Rams at the end of the 2021 campaign.
(7) Baltimore Ravens (10-7): A hugely disappointing 2025 campaign left them out of the playoffs and John Harbaugh, at least temporarily, without a job. But, aside from backing out of March’s trade for DE Maxx Crosby, the vibes have been pretty good here since the hiring of rookie HC Jesse Minter and his staff. Two-time MVP Lamar Jackson has been especially enthused about rookie coordinator Declan Doyle’s offense. Still, with so many moving parts – including an all-new interior O-line – plus a trip to Brazil early in the season, it could take some time for this team to jell in what’s almost always a highly-competitive division. Might help that schedule is backloaded, the Ravens’ last four games all against AFC North foes.
Pittsburgh Steelers (7-10): Culture shock, good and/or bad, seems inevitable here on the heels of longtime coach Mike Tomlin’s departure. But his last hurrah produced a division champion … even though the Steelers were in the league’s bottom quartile both offensively and defensively. New coach Mike McCarthy is intimately familiar with QB Aaron Rodgers and seems to be the beneficiary of a few offensive upgrades. But an aging defense needs to turn back the clock, and an aging Rodgers will have to navigate a first-place schedule that includes a trip to Paris and the Black Friday game. It feels like a high bar, especially if the Ravens and Bengals rebound.
Cleveland Browns (5-12): Who’s the quarterback? How will the eventual QB1’s protection look behind four new starters on the O-line? How will the defense compensate for the loss of Garrett’s production and departed coordinator Jim Schwartz’s experience and fire? How long will it take for all of that young talent to coalesce? Is their enough Gatorade in the state of Ohio to hydrate a team forced to play its first two games in Florida?
AFC South
(1) Houston Texans (12-5): A team that customarily starts the NFL playoffs on a wild-card Saturday afternoon has never been a No. 1 seed. The Texans have never even reached the AFC championship game. Could this be the year? Only the Seahawks surrendered fewer points than a Houston defense that was ranked No. 1 overall in 2025. If a David Montgomery-led backfield can take some of the pressure off QB C.J. Stroud, Houston could achieve the kind of complementary football that will make the Texans awfully hard to beat. Four home games and a neutral-site affair in London in the season’s first seven weeks could portend a strong start.
Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8): They’re counting on far more production from CB/WR Travis Hunter after what was largely a lost rookie season for the No. 2 pick of the 2025 draft. They’re banking on largely unproven LB Ventrell Miller and RB Bhayshul Tuten to be worthy in-house replacements, respectively, for departed Lloyd and Etienne, two critical contributors to last year’s charge to the top of the AFC South. On the logistical side, ahead of their 2027 exile to Orlando amid EverBank Stadium's renovations, the Jags will only play six times in Jacksonville this season.
Tennessee Titans (6-11): Banished as head coaches in New York, now Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll will take charge of the defense and offensive, respectively, in the relative anonymity of Nashville. Saleh, the new head man here, seems particularly eager to learn from his past mistakes with the Jets … while finally enjoying the presence of a young franchise quarterback, assuming Cam Ward can better fill that bill in Year 2. Fun note: the Titans will enjoy at least a 2-1 start if they can beat the Jets and Giants in the first three weeks. Regardless, doubling their 2025 win total seems quite feasible given the influx of veterans and rookies this year, Ward sure to benefit from new WRs Wan’Dale Robinson and Carnell Tate, the No. 4 pick of the draft.
Indianapolis Colts (5-12): Not only does the roster of a team that imploded in the second half of 2025 seem diminished, QB Daniel Jones and WR Alec Pierce – they commanded the bulk of this year’s free agent (re)investment – are both on the comeback from major injuries, with Pierce (ankle) still not practicing. Buyers for CB Sauce Gardner at least year’s trade deadline – oops? – will GM Chris Ballard be compelled to sell RB Jonathan Taylor, entering the final season of his contract, this year, if no new deal is forthcoming?
AFC West
(2) Denver Broncos (12-5): They’ve gotten incrementally better in each of their three years under HC Sean Payton’s watch, separating the Chiefs from what seemed like their divisional birthright last year before coming heartbreakingly close to the Super Bowl. With most of the starters back and QB Bo Nix healthy again after breaking his ankle in the playoffs, it remains to be seen if new playcaller Davis Webb and WR Jaylen Waddle can fully unlock an attack that ranked 14th in points scored last season.
(5) Kansas City Chiefs (11-6): The last time they invested so much draft capital into the defense was 2022, and it immediately returned a Lombardi Trophy. Could such lightning strike twice? Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will need time to get the defensive recipe, including a revamped secondary, right. The arrival of Walker, who should invigorate a long-dormant ground game, gives K.C. four Super Bowl MVPs in its backfield. Walker could also be called to provide some cover to QB Patrick Mahomes early in the season as he gets his legs, particularly the surgically repaired left one, back under him. Facing three non-playoff teams from last season before a Week 5 bye might provide an ideal break-in period for Mahomes and his new teammates – and maybe the momentum to get a (mostly) battle-tested team back on its dynastic track.
Los Angeles Chargers (9-8): A team that’s been good enough to make the playoffs under coach Jim Harbaugh is still in search of a Super Bowl breakthrough ... and a postseason victory generally. Keeping key players healthy, seemingly always a challenge in these parts, would be a start. But the Bolts will also be employing two new coordinators, including OC Mike McDaniel – one of the most fascinating hires of the offseason. How this offense looks under his direction – and whether he’ll run the ball frequently enough to satisfy Harbaugh – remains to be seen, but the prospects are compelling. But following a two-game homestand against the Cardinals and Raiders to start the season, this schedule is something of a murderers’ row with scant relief.
Las Vegas Raiders (3-14): It will likely be a tale of two seasons – the one during which No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza rides the bench, and the one when he’s in the lineup. Presumably. Neither is likely to be pretty, but at least one chapter will be worth watching.
AFC playoffs
Wild card: (7) Ravens def. (2) Broncos; (3) Bills def. (6) Patriots; (4) Bengals def. (5) Chiefs
Divisional: (7) Ravens def. (1) Texans; (3) Bills def. (4) Bengals
Championship game: (3) Bills def. (7) Ravens
NFC playoffs
Wild card: (2) Bears def. (7) 49ers; (3) Cowboys def. (6) Lions; (5) Seahawks def. (4) Saints
Divisional: (1) Rams def. (5) Seahawks; (3) Cowboys def. (2) Bears
Championship game: (1) Rams def. (3) Cowboys
Super Bowl 61 (Inglewood, California)
Rams def. Bills
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2026 NFL record projections: Super Bowl 61 an all-Texas affair between Cowboys, Texans?
