Five plays on the card.
Two favorites. Two totals. One three-team moneyline parlay that requires each team to do little more than avoid embarrassing itself.
We’re even spanning continents.
Here are my favorite NFL Week 3 bets.
Bengals -3.5 (-105) at Steelers
Wish we were still laying a number inside of a field goal but, even with the hook, the Bengals might be my favorite bet on the board.
Cincinnati just went into Houston as an underdog and left with a dominant 20-6 win. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase connected for two touchdowns, Tee Higgins contributed 95 receiving yards and Chase Brown gave the offense some balance on the ground.
That should continue against a run defense that’s already had trouble with Bijan Robinson and TreVeyon Henderson.
The Bengals’ defense may be the bigger
story.
After forcing four Buccaneers turnovers in the opener, the Bengals limited the Texans to two field goals. The revamped unit has been far more disruptive than expected and now gets an offense that has scored only one touchdown through eight quarters.
Pittsburgh managed just three points at New England last week while failing to convert on 10 of 12 third-down attempts. Aaron Rodgers looks every bit his age, the offensive line is failing him, DK Metcalf can’t do much if Rodgers doesn’t have time to get him the ball downfield and Michael Pittman Jr. remains limited by a foot injury.
T.J. Watt always creates the possibility of a game-changing play, but the Steelers also have uncertainty surrounding Joey Porter Jr., who has yet to play this season and remained limited in practice this week. There’s nothing secondary about that problem against Chase and Higgins.
Maybe Pittsburgh’s defense keeps this uncomfortable for a while. Eventually, though, Cincinnati’s talent should create separation.
You can still get a perfectly reasonable price on -3 if you’d prefer the push protection so you don’t get hooked.
Seahawks -7.5 (-105) at Commanders
I liked this more when Seattle was laying 3.5.
Naturally, the spread has more than doubled.
Whatever. I’m still willing to cross the key number.
The Seahawks have won 12 consecutive games dating back to last season and just demolished the Cardinals 31-7. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught three touchdowns, the defense dominated again and Drew Lock continued to play well in Sam Darnold’s absence.
Darnold is expected to return from his glute injury but, even if he can’t go, Lock has thrown for 422 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Seattle’s offense should be functional either way against a Washington secondary that has been anything but.
The larger problem for the Commanders is on the other side.
Jayden Daniels is out with a dislocated elbow, putting Marcus Mariota back under center. Washington’s offensive line has struggled, and now it must deal with a Mike Macdonald defense that creates pressure as effectively as any unit in football.
Macdonald’s teams are 17-2 straight-up and 14-4-1 against the spread on the road. Seattle has the better quarterback situation, the better defense and the best offensive player in this matchup.
Laying more than a touchdown on the road isn’t especially comfortable. Neither is trusting Mariota behind this offensive line.
Jets-Lions over 48.5 (-105)
Why overcomplicate this?
The Lions are explosive offensively and dreadful defensively.
Detroit has allowed more than 900 yards through two games and enters this matchup with major problems in the secondary. Avonte Maddox, Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are all unavailable, creating an inviting matchup for Geno Smith, Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell.
The Jets should also be able to involve Breece Hall against a defense that couldn’t get Buffalo’s offense off the field.
New York doesn’t need to win. It just needs to contribute.
That hasn’t traditionally been a problem when Smith plays indoors. He’s 18-7 to the over in those games during his career. Meanwhile, the Lions are 31-12 to the over as home favorites over the last decade.
The combination of Dan Campbell, Jared Goff and Ford Field has produced plenty of track meets.
Aaron Glenn’s familiarity with Detroit’s offense may help New York early, but slowing down Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and the rest of this group for four quarters is a different challenge.
Detroit could score into the 30s. If the Jets reach the low-to-mid 20s, we should be in business.
Ravens-Cowboys first-half over 25.5 (-140)
I don’t love paying this much juice on a first-half total, but I do love the matchup.
Baltimore jumped out to a 14-3 lead against New Orleans last week before its offense disappeared after halftime. Dallas scored 24 first-half points in its win over Washington.
Both teams have shown they can start quickly, and neither defense enters Rio at full strength.
The Cowboys will be without DeMarvion Overshown, Cobie Durant, Malik Hooker and P.J. Locke. That’s a depleted group trying to contain Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, with the Ravens also likely to be without Zay Flowers.
As for Baltimore, the club just blew an 11-point lead at home, allowing New Orleans to score three unanswered touchdowns.
Next up, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and a Dallas offense coming off a 37-point performance.
Yeesh.
The full-game total is certainly playable, but I prefer attacking the portion of the game least likely to be affected by conservative late-game decisions.
Four first-half touchdowns get us there.
We’ve got a nice trend on our side as well, as Brian Schottenheimer and Prescott are 17-2 to the first-half over as a duo.
Kaufman's Card:
- Bengals -3.5 vs. Steelers
- Seahawks -7.5 vs. Commanders
- Jets-Lions over 48.5 total points
- Ravens-Cowboys first half over 25.5 total
Oh, and here's a bonus:
Chiefs-Bills-Lions moneyline parlay (+100)
Three favorites. One even-money ticket.
Kansas City visits a Miami team that has lost its first two games by an average of 18 points and allowed touchdowns on San Francisco’s first five possessions last week. The Chiefs are coming off a 33-point, 484-yard performance and shouldn’t require Patrick Mahomes to manufacture another overtime escape.
The Bills face a Chargers squad that’s opened the season with consecutive 26-14 home losses as heavy favorites. Now Los Angeles must travel across the country with an injured offensive line to face Josh Allen and James Cook, who look virtually unstoppable right now.
The Lions may represent the leg that carries the most risk because their defense could keep the Jets in the game. But Detroit is home, its offense has considerably more firepower and Goff historically performs far better indoors than he does away from Ford Field.
Could one of these teams play with its food? Of course. Just ask survivor-pool players this month.
But the Chiefs, Bills and Lions don’t need to cover anything. They just need to win.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Best bets for NFL Week 3: Back the Bengals, Seahawks and all the points!
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