One-third of college applicants rule out schools because of partisan politics in their states, a new industry poll finds.
Red-state politics prompt liberal-leaning students to avoid applying to colleges in Texas and Florida. Conservative-leaning applicants eschew schools in New York and California.
Overall, 34% of applicants rule out colleges over state politics, according to the survey, conducted in August and September by Art & Science Group, a consulting and research firm that serves academia. The survey reached 1,547 students.
“A meaningful and growing minority of four-year college-bound students are telling us they are ruling out schools they had been considering, solely because of political considerations” in their states, said David Strauss,
a principal at Art & Science Group. “That is as blunt a thing as you can hear.”
The idea that a conservative student might not apply to a college in a blue state, or that a liberal high school senior might avoid a school in a red state, had long been rumored in the college admissions industry.
In 2023, Strauss’s group designed a survey to test that theory, evidently the first of its kind. The survey found that 24% of seniors ruled out potential colleges over state politics.
Art & Science Group has run three subsequent surveys. Each time, the quotient of students avoiding schools for political reasons has risen.
Colleges are approaching an enrollment cliff
The finding has dire implications for colleges in red and blue states, at a moment when many colleges are hurting for applicants.
The population of new college students is growing, but that growth is slowing. Undergraduate enrollment rose just 0.6% in the fall of 2026, compared with 2.4% in the fall of 2025, according to an Oct. 29 report from the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center.
Researchers expect colleges to hit an enrollment cliff, with the population of high school graduates gradually declining between now and 2041, echoing falling birthrates.
“I would argue that any school should worry about it,” Strauss said of the survey findings.
Rice University sits in Texas, a red state. Rice admitted 2,984 students from a pool of 38,603 applicants for the class of 2030, an elite admission rate of 7.7%.
“We’re seeing a positive trajectory in terms of student interest in Rice from outside Texas,” said Yvonne Romero, vice president of enrollment and dean of admissions and financial aid at Rice.
The University of Southern California, in a blue state, admitted 10,006 students from among 79,331 applicants, for an admission rate of 12.6%.
Pedro Noguera, dean of the USC Rossier School of Education, says he doesn’t accept the survey findings at face value.
“Some schools are hurting for applicants, but it’s not because of this. There’s a declining birth rate,” he said. “I’ve never heard a student say they didn’t come here because we’re in L.A.”
Colleges might not know they're losing students over politics
But Strauss and his colleagues theorize that even high-demand schools like USC and Rice lose students over state politics. They just might not know it.
“If students had eliminated you because of politics, you’re not hearing from them, because they’re not there,” said Jamie Ealy, vice president of Art & Science Group.
Much discussion in academia has centered on whether students make a final decision on which college to attend based partly on state politics, the report says.
The new survey found, however, that most students rule out colleges much earlier in the process, when they first consider where to apply.
Liberal and conservative students rule out colleges over politics at roughly the same rate, the survey found.
Liberal students tend to focus on specific issues, such as reproductive rights and LGBTQ+ rights, Strauss said. Conservative students tend to voice broader concerns about a state being too liberal.
“We hear people talk about, ‘If I go to Texas, I’m no longer in control of my own body,’” Strauss said. “There are visceral things from the right as well.”
Some college applicants rule out entire states over politics
College applicants rule out 10 states in particular for political reasons. At least 15% of conservative-leaning students surveyed said they had excluded colleges in California, Colorado or New York over partisan politics. Liberal-leaning students rejected schools in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina and Texas.
Both Rice and USC work hard to position themselves as open and welcoming to students of all political stripes, their administrators said.
For Rice, Romero said, “Houston is an asset.” Texas is a red state, but Houston is a liberal-leaning city.
“I tell people that we were the first major city in the United States to elect an openly gay mayor,” she said. “And it was a Rice alumna. We’re very proud of that.”
USC, set in a liberal city in a liberal state, operates the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future, which bills itself as the nation’s only university political center led jointly by a Democrat and a Republican.
“We live in a very polarized society during polarized times,” Noguera said. “I think it’s important throughout higher ed that we take a stand and make it clear that viewpoint diversity matters.”
But if students rule out USC or Rice before they ever visit the website or read the brochures, they may never know of their efforts toward inclusivity.
If colleges want to get ahead of the political sorting in admissions season, the Art & Science Group report says, they need to recognize that students are ruling out colleges at the start of the application process.
Those students “may be difficult to identify,” the report says, “as they have opted out before becoming visible as prospects.”
The report recommends colleges transcend politics by differentiating themselves, telling potential applicants of the distinct college experience they can offer.
“The best way to get people to cross that line,” Strauss said, “is to be appealing enough in a certain way that people don’t rule you out up front.”
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College applicants are ruling out schools over state politics
