The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals may well decide the AFC North with their Sunday Night Football rematch Nov. 16.
It feels quite early to be making such a bold declaration. Fully nine weeks of action remain starting with NFL Week 10 this week, and they could include plenty of twists and turns that we don’t anticipate right now.
On paper, however, soft schedules could make it difficult for the loser of this primetime matchup to make up ground on the other over the course of the next couple of months.
Both are 6-2 currently, and one will leave the weekend with a full one-game lead. If the Steelers win, they’ll also own the head-to-head tiebreaker
thanks to their 30-27 victory when these teams first met Sept. 27 at Acrisure Stadium.
Steelers fans originally feared another second-half meatgrinder when dates were announced back in May. Opponents including the Philadelphia Eagles, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars and Carolina Panthers all made the playoffs last season.
The slate also includes both matchups with the division rival Baltimore Ravens, who pushed the Steelers to the final play of the final game of the regular season to decide which team would represent the North in the 2025 playoffs.
Things look far more manageable now. Of those six opponents, only the Jaguars and Broncos currently have winning records, and the Steelers play only one of the two on the road. They’ll travel to face Jacksonville on Monday Night Football on Dec. 14.
The Eagles (2-7), Texans (3-5) and Panthers (3-5) have been among the league’s worst teams through nine weeks. The Ravens (4-5) aren’t quite as bad, but are navigating injuries to former MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson and his backup Tyler Huntley.
Throw in a Week 17 visit to the 1-7 Tennessee Titans on Jan. 3 and it’s reasonable to expect the Steelers will be favored in most of their games the rest of the way.
The road is only slightly tougher for the Bengals. Of their remaining opponents, only the Panthers were a 2025 playoff team.
The Washington Commanders (2-5-1), New Orleans Saints (3-5) and Indianapolis Colts (2-7) all have losing records as well. And one matchup remains against those hobbled Ravens on New Year’s Eve.
Cincinnati will face three teams with a winning record compared to Pittsburgh’s two. Both division matchups with the 5-3 Cleveland Browns remain, and a Dec. 13 home game against Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and the 6-2 Kansas City Chiefs could be tricky.
Still, the Bengals would have plenty of reason to feel confident if they could pull out a win against the Steelers in a game in which they’re currently favored by 3.5 points, per BetMGM. That reality puts a premium on winning for both sides.
Bigger picture, neither team looks like it’s in a ton of danger of missing the playoffs. Eight AFC teams currently have winning records, and seven can make the playoffs. Most of those contenders have tougher remaining schedules, so both the Steelers and Bengals would need to fumble badly to miss the bracket.
The winner of the North gets a coveted home playoff game, though. And that’s of particular importance to the Steelers.
They’ve not won a postseason game since 2016, and they’re just 2-6 in playoff road games since their Super Bowl loss to the Green Bay Packers at the end of the 2010 season.
The stakes are therefore fairly high for a game this early in the season.
The Bengals prevailed when these teams last met in Cincinnati early last season. Backup quarterback Joe Flacco sliced and diced the Steelers’ secondary for 342 yards and three touchdowns in what became a 33-31 victory Oct. 16.
Otherwise, the Steelers have won in three of their past four visits to Paycor Stadium. The teams have split their 12 meetings, 6-6, since star Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow broke into the league in 2020.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Steelers-Bengals rematch might have the highest stakes of NFL season so far
