The five-spot gap separating Tennessee from Alabama in the second College Football Playoff rankings doesn’t reflect what everyone witnessed on the third Saturday of October.
The Crimson Tide climbed to No. 3, well ahead of the No. 8 Volunteers despite what seems like a very significant on-field result: Tennessee beat Alabama 26-10 last month
. The score might even undersell the Volunteers’ game control.The playoff selection committee weighed head-to-head results in the comparison between Notre Dame and Miami. After scoring a 31-24 win in South Bend on Saturday night, the Fighting Irish rose six spots to No. 5 and the Hurricanes dropped to No. 7. The same logic has not come into play in conversations about the Tide and Volunteers.
Tennessee is
still locked into an at-large playoff berth by beating Texas A&M, LSU and Vanderbilt. In fact, that would bring the head-to-head tiebreaker into play and send the Volunteers to the SEC championship game over Alabama.
But there is a way this gap in the playoff rankings comes into play: Alabama has been given room to lose once and still make the tournament, while the same cannot definitively be said of Tennessee. That alone gives the Volunteers the biggest gripe of any two-loss Power Four team in the playoff race.
Tennessee, UCLA and Ohio State lead the winners and losers from the second playoff rankings:
Winners
Georgia
Putting Georgia at No. 1 after Miami’s loss had to be a no-brainer for the committee. While Utah, No. 2 in the playoff rankings, is unbeaten and just beat No. 10 Brigham Young, the Bulldogs are fresh off one of the most complete performances by any Power Four team this season in a 42-7 rout of Ole Miss. That win provides even more beef for a postseason résumé that already included a win against the Crimson Tide. At this point, Georgia and the SEC have so much credibility that the Bulldogs could lose once, rebound to win the conference championship and still be under consideration for No. 1 in the final rankings.
UCLA
One week later, the committee rewarded unbeaten UCLA, bumping the Bruins up to No. 4 after a 34-20 win against Minnesota. That win ended up carrying some weight: Indiana’s drop in the rankings might’ve been influenced by their struggles to get past the Golden Gophers. Given the chance to step back and evaluate last week’s rankings, the committee made no huge adjustments – other than the obvious move up and down for Notre Dame and Miami – other than basically swapping the Bruins and Hoosiers.
Iowa
With almost zero national attention, Iowa has climbed to No. 15 in the playoff rankings and in range of earning an at-large pick. Since losing to Minnesota last month, the Hawkeyes have added quality wins against Wisconsin and Northwestern just as Ohio State has fallen in the Big Ten. That the Buckeyes will end the year with at least three losses opens a path for Iowa to be the third team from the conference to make the playoff, joining UCLA and Indiana.
Wake Forest
Wake Forest climbed three spots to No. 13 after beating Merrimack 77-0. Not that the committee puts any value on beating the Warriors. But the Demon Deacons were one of the prime beneficiaries of Ole Miss, Ohio State and LSU picking up their third losses. While still not a playoff favorite at this point, Wake’s week-to-week climb could easily continue given how teams in the SEC and Big Ten continue to drop off the map. And the Deacons still have games this month against SMU and Duke, not to mention a potential rematch with the Hurricanes in the ACC championship game.
Losers
Ohio State
A second loss in a row dropped Ohio State to No. 20, illustrating its nearly nonexistent chances of earning an at-large bid. To do so, the Buckeyes would need to win out and be helped by an essentially unrealistic degree of chaos in the SEC as well as a collapse from several teams in the Big Ten. Looking at these rankings, their only believable path to the playoff is by winning the Big Ten championship. That isn’t too hard to imagine: OSU would need to win out against Northwestern, Nebraska and Michigan while Indiana loses to USC and the Trojans then loses to UCLA.
Indiana
Indiana didn’t play this past weekend but was still dumped five spots to No. 9, as the committee clearly sat back and reconsidered last week’s ranking based on factors such the recent data point in the comparison with UCLA. The Golden Gophers previously lost in overtime to Indiana after the Hoosiers tied the game with a 60-yard field goal as time expired. But there’s been a general reassessment of the Hoosiers’ overall résumé and their strength of schedule because of a recent lull, especially on offense. Indiana hasn’t scored more than 23 points in a game in over a month.
LSU
The Tigers are in even worse shape at No. 21 in the second rankings. Frankly, being ranked is more a reflection on the Tigers’ September reputation and the SEC’s deserved label as the best conference in the country: LSU has league wins against Texas A&M, Mississippi State and Auburn, while its best win overall is against Clemson. And though losses to Ole Miss and Kentucky came on the road, this past Saturday’s disheartening meltdown against Alabama came in Tiger Stadium. The résumé just isn’t there.
The ACC
In general, Wake’s rise is some good news for the ACC that at least partially balances out of the fallout from the Hurricanes’ loss. Still, the conference is in a tight spot: Wake can get in the playoff by beating Miami for the conference championship, but would the Hurricanes still be in with two losses? And does Miami’s loss eliminate the chances that Wake can lose a close one for the ACC crown and still get an at-large bid? Even more so than the Big 12, the ACC is staring at the possibility of being a one-bid league.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: CFP rankings winners and losers headlined by Alabama's lead on Tennessee
