Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season is now officially in the books. Many will treat that one week of action as gospel after waiting the entire offseason to discuss actual on-field play.
But as all NFL fans know, that would be a mistake. Trusting a sample size that small is bound to create some sizable overreactions, ones many will look back at come midseason with a sheepish gaze.
Take the start of the 2025 NFL season, for example. In Week 1, many expressed excitement about the performance of Justin Fields in his New York Jets debut. Some believed he'd finally found a spot to emerge as a starter, but he regressed and was benched by Week 11.
All that's to say is that while it is fun to overreact to things, just know most of those initial gut-check reactions
to the NFL season will end up being flipped on their heads come the season's end.
Here are some of the most notable overreactions from Week 1 of the 2026 NFL season:
The Chiefs are back and should be Super Bowl favorites
Entering the 2026 NFL season, there were numerous questions about what to expect from the Chiefs. Many were worried about Patrick Mahomes' health, the state of their offensive line, and the composition of a defense that saw a significant overhaul in the secondary, leading to uncertainty about Kansas City's status as a contender.
The Chiefs proved they are, once again, going to be in the playoff mix with a resounding, 31-10 win over a Denver Broncos team many expected to be a Super Bowl contender in its own right on "Monday Night Football."
The manner in which the Chiefs won was no fluke. Kansas City spent the offseason shaping their roster into one that could offer Mahomes plenty of support as he returns from a torn ACL and LCL in his left knee. The key piece in that plan was Super Bowl 60 MVP Kenneth Walker, who signed a lucrative, free-agent deal to serve as a workhorse for a Chiefs backfield in desperate need of a leader.
The Walker signing paid immediate dividends. He handled a team-high 26 touches and turned them into 191 yards and two scores in Kansas City's rout, all while taking pressure off Mahomes as he shook off rust and eased himself back into game action.
Add in the yeoman's work Steve Spagnuolo once again did with a Chiefs secondary replacing three starters from the 2026 season and it was an impressive showing from Andy Reid's team.
But should this one game make Kansas City the Super Bowl favorites? Not quite yet. Mahomes still needs to prove he can get back to his peak after merely posting a solid performance as a passer in his return to action (15 of 27 for 184 yards, two touchdowns and an interception). And Walker will need to prove he can continue to handle a heavy workload as the season progresses.
Still, the Chiefs' first step in redemption for their 6-11 campaign in 2025 was a strong one. They have put the NFL on notice and certainly, at the very least, should be playoff contenders.
Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat
The Green Bay Packers appeared to be in control of their Week 1 game against the Minnesota Vikings for most of the first three quarters of the game. They held the Vikings at an arm's length for most of the contest and had a five-point lead entering the fourth quarter.
Green Bay appeared well-positioned to extend its lead when Trey Smack made a 40-yard field goal with just over 13 minutes remaining in regulation. However, Minnesota was whistled for an offsides penalty on the kick, and LaFleur opted to accept the penalty and go for it on fourth-and-1 from the Vikings' 17-yard line.
What followed LaFleur's controversial decision? Jordan Love was stymied on a fourth-and-1 quarterback sneak during which he didn't have another player pushing him from behind. The Vikings then seized momentum, mounting a go-ahead touchdown drive as part of 22 unanswered fourth quarter points in what turned out to be a 39-22 Minnesota blowout.
On its own, LaFleur's decision wouldn't be enough to considerably heat up his seat. However, the 46-year-old coach was already on thinner ice after the Packers blew an 18-point lead in their wild-card loss to the Chicago Bears last season, part of three straight playoff berths as the NFC's No. 7 seed.
LaFleur has also been plagued by head-scratching, late-game decision-making throughout his time in Green Bay, so his latest decision will not do him any favors as he looks to reaffirm his grasp on the Packers' coaching job.
Still, while LaFleur's seat is heating up, he won't be in danger of an imminent dismissal. The Packers have only had 15 full-time coaches across their franchise's history, and just two have been dismissed in-season: Gene Ronzani, who resigned with two games remaining in the 1953 season, and Mike McCarthy, who was fired after Week 13 of the 2018 NFL season.
The Bears will have the greatest offense in NFL history
While pessimism is surrounding the Packers, the Bears announced their presence as an offensive juggernaut to start the 2026 NFL season. They dropped a whopping 59 points on the Carolina Panthers to go along with an impressive 552 total yards.
That the Bears came out of the chute hot is hardly a surprise. They are in their second season under Ben Johnson's leadership, and the 40-year-old coach has made it clear he wants to blow out his opponents while creating a record-breaking offense.
Chicago proved it has the formula to do that against Carolina. Caleb Williams looked like one of the most dynamic, dual-threat quarterbacks in the league. He was strongly supported by D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, who posted excellent games on the ground and stated their case to be viewed among the league's top running back tandems.
But the craziest part of this all? Chicago's massive offensive day came despite lackluster games from their top receiving weapons. Star tight end Colston Loveland failed to catch a pass while backup Cole Kmet logged two catches, 35 yards and a touchdown. And both Luther Burden III (five catches, 63 yards) and Rome Odunze (two catches, 52 yards) were out-produced by perceived tertiary weapon Kalif Raymond (eight catches, 84 yards).
So, when Burden, Loveland and Odunze all perform at their peak, Chicago's offense could have an even higher ceiling than what it showcased against Carolina. That's a scary thought for opposing defensive coordinators.
And the sneaky factor aiding Johnson in his quest to make history? The Bears don't have the strongest defense, as Chicago's stop unit surrendered 37 points and 478 yards to the Panthers. If the Bears keep playing in shootouts, that will require their offense to keep their foot on the gas, which could help them challenge the 2013 Denver Broncos as the highest-scoring NFL offense ever.
Dallas' defense has the same old problems under Christian Parker
Many expressed hope the Cowboys' defense would improve dramatically in 2026. That didn't come to fruition in their first game, a 28-20 upset loss against the New York Giants.
The Cowboys looked helpless to stop the Giants throughout their "Sunday Night Football" clash. Dallas often blew coverages, especially against tight end Isaiah Likely, and struggled to stop a running back swing pass New York dialed up frequently during the second half of the game.
As a result, the Giants outgained the Cowboys 394-244, won the time of possession battle with a mark of 36:40 and saw Jaxson Dart enjoy the most efficient game of his NFL career.
Meanwhile, Dallas closed the week with a familiar dead-last ranking in defensive EPA per play, per the NFL's Next Gen Stats. Yes, the Cowboys were ranked behind even the Panthers squad that surrendered 59 points to the Bears in Week 1.
Naturally, that result will lead many to panic about the state of the Cowboys. That's fair, but there should be an element of patience in seeing what Parker can do with this Dallas defense. It takes time to implement new schemes and systems while getting players comfortable, so rendering a judgment on the first-time coordinator at this point would be premature.
An example of this? In 2023, the Denver Broncos surrendered a whopping 70 points to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3. Many wondered whether first-year defensive coordinator Vance Joseph was the right hire for the team after that near-historic ineptitude, but a few weeks later, he had the Broncos' defense playing at an elite level.
Granted, Parker isn't nearly the proven commodity Joseph was when he was hired for his stint as the Broncos' defensive coordinator. Nor does Dallas have the same high-level personnel that Denver had. But nonetheless, the 34-year-old deserves a few more weeks to whip his unit into shape before a big-time judgment is rendered.
Dubbing the Rams a 'Super Team' was premature
Look, there's no doubt that the Rams put together an ugly performance in Melbourne to start the season. The whole team looked out of sorts, with Matthew Stafford having issues distributing the ball to his weapons and Myles Garrett struggling to make an impact while dealing with a knee injury.
Still, the Rams' problems in the Australia game seemed to be more of their own making than anything else.
Let's start with the obvious. The Rams decided to arrive in Australia just over 24 hours before their game began, a move based on the team's success dominating the Jacksonville Jaguars in London last season after a late arrival.
That strategy did not translate to success after the longer flight to Australia, as the Rams looked jet-lagged. Meanwhile, the San Francisco 49ers, who went Down Under about a week before the game, looked fresh and were able to dominate the contest as a result.
That wasn't Los Angeles' only misstep. The team's handling of Garrett – who was clearly less than 100% but didn't appear on the injury report – was strange. Perhaps the 30-year-old may have been eager to make his Rams debut, but the team probably should have held him out until he was ready. That's exactly what they are now being forced to do as he will be placed on IR following arthroscopic knee surgery.
All that's to say it's a bit premature to sour on the Rams' prospect of being a "Super Team." There are some warning signs following Week 1, particularly with Stafford's performance and Garrett's injury, that they may not live up to the hype, but we need to see how they look on home soil with regular rest before they can be written off in full.
The Patriots should be worried about Drake Maye
Maye was an MVP runner-up for the Patriots last season, but there's little doubt he has struggled since the start of the playoffs against top-tier defenses. Those issues continued in the Patriots' 13-10 Week 1 loss to the Seattle Seahawks in a Super Bowl 60 rematch.
Many will point to Maye's issues in the fourth quarter, during which he tossed three interceptions, as his biggest problem. But his issues started before that, as he significantly underthrew A.J. Brown on a potential touchdown in the first half, signaling he wasn't at his peak.
There's certainly reason for the Patriots to have concerns about Maye's performance against top defenses with his sample size against them growing. Even so, they shouldn't be too worried about his development. It's easy to forget that he's still just 24 years old and made just his 34th NFL start, postseason included, against the Seahawks.
As such, there's going to be growing pains with Maye, as there will be with any young quarterback. His will just be in higher-magnitude spots because the Patriots have vastly outpaced expectations during their rapid rebuild under Mike Vrabel.
If, by the end of the season, Maye hasn't shown considerable growth, then the Patriots will find themselves facing a tough decision about his future. Until then, their top focus should be on evaluating Maye and figuring out how they can support him over the next six weeks without the services of Brown.
Chargers hiring Mike McDaniel was an overrated move
The Chargers landing McDaniel was met with a lot of fanfare during the offseason. Many expected the former Miami Dolphins' to be able to milk a career-best season out of Justin Herbert and unlock the potential of 2025 first-round pick Omarion Hampton at running back.
That did not come to fruition in the Chargers' first game. Los Angeles suffered a stunning, 26-14 loss to the Arizona Cardinals as McDaniel's offense scuffled.
Blaming McDaniel for the issues would be the easy way out. But in reality, the main issue is that no offensive play-caller can overcome the biggest problem the Chargers currently have, the play of their interior offensive line.
Last season, the Chargers had the worst center play in the NFL. They signed Tyler Biadasz in free agency to try to fix that issue, but he suffered a season-ending knee injury in training camp. That thrust rookie Jake Slaughter into the starting role with the second-round pick being flanked by Cole Strange on the right and an unorthodox rotation of Kayode Awosika and Trey Pipkins at left guard.
Any offense with that kind of problematic interior blocking would likely be disjointed, even one helmed by McDaniel, who is one of the NFL's most well-respected play-designers. So it's not entirely fair to entirely blame the 43-year-old for Los Angeles' Week 1 struggles, however disappointing they were.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL Week 1 overreactions: Are the Chiefs back? Matt LaFleur hot seat, more
