With 10 days until early voting starts in Texas for the midterm elections, a new poll suggests momentum may be shifting back in Republicans' favor in two key races.
A new UMass Lowell/YouGov poll, released Oct. 8, shows RepublicanKen Paxton and Democrat James Talarico tied at 45%, with 7% of respondents undecided.
“The last time Democrats won a U.S. Senate race in Texas, Ken Paxton didn’t yet have a law degree and James Talarico wasn’t even born. With the race tied, anything can happen between now and the election,” said John Cluverius, director of survey research for the Center for Public Opinion at UMass Lowell.
Talarico has led Paxton in most September and October polls, sometimes by margins outside the poll’s error.
It remains to be seen whether
Trump's visits to the Lone Star State have affected the polls, or whetherTalarico's absence from the campaign trail for about two weeks has.
Here’s what the poll found about the Senate and governor’s races, as early voting begins Oct. 19.
Ken Paxton, James Talarico in dead heat in Texas Senate race
The poll surveyed 850 likely Texas voters from Sept. 18-28 and has an adjusted margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.
The poll found that Paxton leads among voters over 65, 58%-38%, while Talarico leads among younger voters, ages18 to 29, 49%-37%. Hispanic and Black voters are also breaking for Talarico over Paxton, 48%-42% and 67%-17% respectively.
The poll measured Talarico’s favorability — 42% favorable, 41% unfavorable — but did not ask about Paxton’s.
Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa in Texas Governor's race
The poll showed Gov. Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa in a statistical tie, with the governor ahead 48% to 44% — within the poll’s margin of error.
The poll also showed that 6% of voters are still undecided and 1% said they will not vote.
Recent Texas U.S. Senate race polls
Here's what September and October polls showed:
- YouGov poll (Oct. 6) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%.
- Emerson College (Sept. 17) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%.
- The New York Times (Oct. 3) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 45%.
- Fox News(Oct. 1) — Talarico 51%, Paxton 49%.
- Big Data Poll (Sept. 27) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%.
- Marist Poll(Sept. 23) — Talarico 50%, Paxton 44%.
- Texas Southern University (Sept. 22) — Talarico 47%, Paxton 46%.
- ReconMR Texas Poll (Sept. 17) — Talarico 49%, Paxton 43%.
Mateo Rosiles is the Texas Connect reporter for USA TODAY and its regional papers in Texas, based in Austin. Got a news tip for him? Email him at mrosiles@usatodayco.com.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: New Texas Senate poll signals shift for GOP as early voting nears
