The No. 3 seed Las Vegas Aces will face the No. 6 seed Indiana Fever in the first round of the 2026 WNBA playoffs beginning on Sunday, Sept. 27.
The Aces are the defending WNBA champion and led by four-time MVP A'ja Wilson. They defeated the Caitlin Clark-less Indiana Fever in the semifinals of last season's postseason. Las Vegas is going for their fourth title in four years.
The Fever are led by the Big 3 of Clark, Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston. The trio helped Indiana win the season series 2-1. The Fever won its only WNBA
Here's USA TODAY Studio IX's breakdown of the Aces-Fever series:
No. 3 Las Vegas Aces vs. No. 6 Indiana Fever
Las Vegas Aces (31-13)
Odds to win the WNBA title: +575
Reason for hope: There’s a reason Dallas Wings guard Paige
Bueckers told Prime Video’s broadcast crew that the Aces turn into a “different animal come playoffs.” The reigning champions didn’t look bad in the regular season, but there are new levels of performance they can tap into on both sides of the ball and individually.
In addition to their postseason pedigree, reigning MVP A’ja Wilson showcased her health in the team’s regular-season finale against the Phoenix Mercury scoring 19 points in 19 minutes in the first quarter, en route to 34 points and 10 rebounds.
Reason for concern: When asked about what she liked in the Aces' win over the Mercury, Wilson said: "Our confidence. The ball was poppin'. The ball was moving. Everybody was rocking and rolling." That wasn’t true through the entirety of the game, as the Aces saw a 31-point lead cut down to nine midway through the fourth quarter. Therein lies the issue for the Aces, who can be streaky. The team chalks this issue up to effort or mindset, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t something to worry about.
Stat to know: The Las Vegas Aces have a playoff record of 26–9 under head coach Becky Hammon. That’s a 74% winning percentage. Enough said.
First-round outlook: The Aces lost two of their games against the Fever in the regular season, with the lone win requiring overtime. Fever superstar Caitlin Clark was sidelined in one of those games and on a minutes restriction in another. Those contests might not be the best indicator of what this first-round matchup might look like, and the same could be said for the semifinals matchup between the teams last season. Although the Fever had the Aces on the brink of elimination back then, Clark wasn’t involved in that series as she was sidelined due to injury.
Indiana Fever (28-16)
Odds to win the WNBA title: +800
Reason for hope: For a shot of confidence concerning what the Fever can accomplish, look no further than the scorers on their roster. Caitlin Clark has arguably been the league’s best playmaker this season, tying Alyssa Thomas with a WNBA-high 8.5 assists per game. She's also the league’s No. 3 leading scorer with 22.8 points per game. Meanwhile, Kelsey Mitchell joins Clark in the Fever’s historically effective backcourt. Having broken A'ja Wilson’s records for points in a season and longest streak of 20-point games (27), Mitchell is unstoppable. In the frontcourt, Aliyah Boston has been a real nuisance for Wilson, which could be key in this series.
Reason for concern: With all of that offensive excitement, the Fever are equally concerning defensively. Their defensive rating of 108 is the worst among playoff teams. Indiana was also 12th of the 15 WNBA teams in points allowed per game. If the saying is “defense wins championships” is true, the Fever are going to need a miracle to bring Indiana its first WNBA championship since 2012.
Stat to know: The Fever had the best offense in the entire WNBA this year. They ended the regular season with league-highs of 96 points per game and a 115 offensive rating.
First-round outlook: On paper, everything in the first-round against the Aces appears to be in the Fever’ favor. Out of all eight playoff teams, Las Vegas is the only one the Fever had a winning record against this season. A first-round storyline to watch will be the Fever's health. Clark has seemed generally free from the back injury that plagued her for parts of this season. Although Aliyah Boston exited the team’s blowout loss to the Lynx on Thursday, Fever coach Stephanie White said it was only a precaution. Meanwhile, the team is awaiting an update on guard Ty Harris, who also went down in the loss – her ankle injury was serious, as she had to be carried off the court.
How to watch
Game 3 (if necessary): Thursday, TBD
Game 1: 4 p.m. ET Sunday, ABC
Game 2: 6:30 p.m. ET, Tuesday, Prime Video
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: The Aces know what it takes to win. The Fever are trying to learn.
