October is near. Do you know which Major League Baseball team you trust?
Welcome to a postseason where virtually every participant is looking over their shoulder, wondering if their two-man rotation can hold up, if their moribund lineup will wake up, if their shaky bullpen can hold up.
Little wonder that in a season that produced the first .500 division champion in major league history that the participant in MLB’s popular bracket challenge will have their flaws. On paper, anyway, one team has far fewer than the rest.
Yet they’re also due for things not to go their way.
With that, ranking MLB’s playoff teams by best chance to win the World Series:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Of course it’s more fun to go faux contrarian and anoint someone else the favorite. We’re not that silly.
For a minute, it seemed the trade for Tarik Skubal was kind of ho-hum. Very quietly, the dude was not quite as dominant as his previous AL Cy Young Award campaigns. But he is locked the hell in again, posting a 33-6 strikeout-walk ratio his last five starts. Simply nobody can match up with Skubal and Yoshinobu Yamamoto to start a playoff series.
Beyond that, Tyler Glasnow has struck out 49 in his last 34 1/3 innings. Blake Snell has all of October to work his way back into form. And did you check out the September OPS for Teoscar Hernandez (.998), Mookie Betts (1.136) and Kyle Tucker (.919)?
Sho-who? This three-peat would be far less dependent on the great Ohtani.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
They were two-and-out in their past two playoff appearances, but now the Rays have graduated beyond the wild-card series and await the Red Sox-Yankees winner. They narrowly won the season series against both clubs and acing this ALDS test might be their stiffest challenge in getting to the World Series.
Like many lower-revenue, highly-analytical clubs, there’s always the question of whether their act will translate to the postseason. Will a club that ranked 22ND in home runs run into enough balls? Will their contact-happy offense keep things moving or prove ineffective against nastier stuff?
And will No. 2 starter Nick Martinez continue his All-Star run, or will his lack of punch (just 109 strikeouts in 180 innings) be a liability?
These are all the question marks. They don’t take away the fact this is a fantastic team, one that’s proven the class of the AL over six months.
3. Milwaukee Brewers
No, really, we mean it this time: This, this 2026 season, this is the year for the Brewers.
Don’t look now, but this is the eighth postseason in nine years for the Brewers, a title-less run nearly akin to the ‘90s Braves or the Dodgers from the previous decade. Yet no one openly wonders what’s wrong with the Brewers in October or if they’ll finally get to a World Series, already.
But those diminished expectations come from the lower-revenue, plucky-Midwesterners leitmotif assigned the Brewers. And on the other hand: The more times you get in the tournament, the better your chances of winning.
And these guys have Jacob Misiorowski, impending Cy Young Award winner, ready to unleash from Game 1. Whether they can bridge the gap from Miz to the rest of a pitching staff that will be relied on 2 through 13 is the major question.
Enjoy Misiorowski’s explosive fastball. Then pull up a chair and get to know DL Hall and Shane Drohan and Abner Uribe real well. You’ll be seeing a lot of them and their ability to get outs will likely determine if this 103-win joyride will continue.
4. New York Yankees
If you’re staring at every other postseason game wondering why starters are going two or three or four innings, Yankees games might feel like comfort food.
Even moreso than the Skubal- and Yamamoto-led Dodgers, the Yankees line up four deep in their rotation, with the strident and cocksure Cam Schlittler leading the way in Game 1 against the Red Sox. And then it’s Max Fried, and Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Rodón, with Will Warren swinging into a handy long guy/spot starter situation. Kind of nice!
Yeah, pitching will have to be their backbone because Aaron Judge almost certainly won’t be around for the wild-card round, or perhaps any stage of these playoffs. Still, despite a fair amount of slug in the lineup and that starting rotation, it will come down to how effective their relievers can be in multiple appearances.
5. Cleveland Guardians
They have one thing the Yankees and Red Sox and Braves do not: A first-round bye. They will need it, as starting pitching is their backbone and any advantage to line up more optimally than their opponent will be cherished.
On top of that, it’s the White Sox-Astros winner that will come out of the chute and face the Guardians, who can hit the survivor with Gavin Williams (239 strikeouts) and Parker Messick () right out of the gate.
Yet it’s the age-old question with Cleveland: Will it slug enough in October? The Guardians rank 27 TH in the majors in homers – only Milwaukee hits fewer among playoff teams – and 26 TH in OPS.
They’re also fairly green: Rookies Chase DeLauter and Travis Bazzana rank second and third on the team in home runs and Bazzana can provide instant offense with his power and speed. Will the young guys hold up under the playoff pressure at a time their club can’t necessarily rely on three hits in an inning to score runs?
A fascinating team to watch.
6. Philadelphia Phillies
Here they are, folks: The worst offense in the major leagues throughout the month of September. But don’t let them get hot.
Seriously.
For these Phillies, the getting there was by far the hardest part in this, their fifth consecutive postseason trip. They got tantalizingly close to an epic choke job but righted the ship just at the end and now the basic facts of this club remain:
Few teams can match up with Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo.
Perhaps the most encouraging sign in their Game 162 clincher – beyond the offense appearing sentient – was Luzardo throwing an inning for the first time since he came up with a balky shoulder three weeks ago. Now, the Phillies’ grand separator – their fantastic starting pitching – is back.
They face a massive obstacle in wild card Game 1: The great Chris Sale. But perhaps their harrowing escape may engender the proper devil-may-care attitude it takes to slay a giant like Sale, a result that would flip that wild-card series on its ear. Then, it’s get the ball to Sanchez for Game 2, escape Atlanta and line up Wheeler and a hopefully whole Luzardo for the NLDS.
Crazy? It could happen.
7. Boston Red Sox
Volatile team, these Red Sox. As if it wasn’t enough getting their possible Hall of Fame manager fired only to run off a 15-game winning streak, win 21 of 25 in July and clinch the No. 2 wild card going away, now the Red Sox loom as the most mysterious club this postseason.
Can they topple the Yankees? Will Payton Tolle end up a national folk hero? Can Willson Contreras swing a bat after getting hit on the hand late in the year? Will Roman Anthony take to October or fold? Can Ceddanne Rafaela stay healthy?
Will Chad Tracy stay on point managing his first postseason games?
Yeah. These guys can win it all or go two-and-out against the Yankees.
8. San Diego Padres
Can you win a World Series back-to-front? In other words, can the game’s deepest bullpen be the bulwark of a championship team?
The Padres may find out. Trade acquisitions Robbie Ray and Casey Mize were hit hard after their arrivals in San Diego, hardly alleviating the pressure on a Mason Miller-led unit that can only hope the Rays and Michael Kings and Walker Buehlers of the world can deliver them a lead.
The good news: No offense has been hotter since the All-Star break: The Padres are second to the Cubs in slugging, first in batting average (.269) and third in runs. Their wild-card series should be a doozy in an activated Petco Park.
Yet Adrian Morejon and Bradgley Rodriguez and Miller have a way of quieting things down in the late innings. Whether they have the wherewithal to last all October is another question.
9. Atlanta Braves
Simply, no path is tougher: Phillies, followed by Dodgers followed by, probably, the Brewers. If they get to the World Series by toppling Sanchez and Misorowski and Skubal and Yamamoto, more power to them.
But it’s a significant ask, particularly when the pitching thins out after Sale and recently acquired Tyler Mahle. Keep an eye on recently activated reliever Robert Suarez. If he and closer Raisel Iglesias can make it a seven-inning game, the Braves will be tough.
10. Chicago Cubs
Like the Braves, it’s a long road, one that begins at Petco Park in a rematch of last year’s wild card series. Can the Cubs hammer their way to the World Series?
That would certainly run counter to the notion that great starting pitching needs to get you there. We’re not entirely sure an amalgam of Kevin Gausman, Matthew Boyd and Clay Holmes will cower many opposing lineups.
The Cubs ranked 18th with a 4.27 rotation ERA and while the weaker arms are marginalized in the postseason, it’s hard to win without a true bell cow. Yet with Alex Bregman, pending MVP Pete Crow-Armstrong and a built-for-postseason hitter like Nico Hoerner, the games will not lack for excitement.
11. Houston Astros
Sorry: You finish .500, you get punished in the rankings.
The Astros have a chance to turn the playoffs on their ear, should they make a deep run while getting in with a subpar record and avoiding the beasts of the AL East until the ALCS thanks to the format. Folks will be screaming mad if they’re still around while two of the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays have gone home.
Yet the Astros seem to thrive on wearing the black hat. They also have homefield advantage in the wild-card series, where their lineup that led the majors in home runs will take aim at the Crawford Boxes.
They’re not expected to do much. And if they do, you’ll probably hear about it.
12. Chicago White Sox
Somebody’s gotta be No. 12 and at the risk of being accused of hating fun, we need to drop the White Sox here. They are a fantastic story, even without any papal blessings. The world really does need to get familiar with Tristan Peters and Sam Antonacci and Miguel Vargas, who have dazzled the South Side all summer and revived a sagging franchise.
It’s just real hard to envision them pitching enough to seriously threaten for the AL pennant. Yet if they can sneak away with two wins in Houston, they’ll be plenty familiar with the Guardinas, who would await in an all-AL Central ALDS.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB playoff power rankings: All 12 teams by chances to win World Series
