South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham faces an unusual election challenge.
Appointed July 13 by Gov. Henry McMaster to serve out the remainder of her late brother Lindsey Graham's term at President Donald Trump's request, she now must persuade Republican voters to send her to the November general election. But can the Trump-endorsed incumbent and political neophyte survive an Aug. 25 special runoff election against hardline conservative Rep. Ralph Norman?
A Graham victory would be a testament to Trump's clout, despite some of his recent primary choices having lost, and to enduring loyalty to Lindsey Graham, whom South Carolinians sent to the Senate four times.
Darline Graham received the most support in the Aug. 11 special primary, winning about 33%
of the vote, while Norman received just under 25%, according to the Associated Press. The two advanced to the runoff, as neither won a majority and they were the top two finishers ahead of Rep. Russell Fry, former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford and business owner Mark Lynch.
Before Darline Graham, 62, was appointed, she was an optician working in disability services and workforce development. She has served on the South Carolina State Workforce Development Board and as president-elect of the National Council of State Agencies for the Blind.
Her lack of political experience showed when she was asked whether Taiwan and the South China Sea are important national security interests for the United States during an Aug. 18 debate.
"I’m not that informed on national security, so — but I do support the military," Darline Graham said. "I'm not a polished politician up here. National security is not my thing, not my area of expertise, but I do support the military."
The misstep was particularly notable because her brother was one of the most outspoken foreign policy hawks in U.S. politics.
Polling has been scant for the race, only adding to the intrigue.
"I honestly have no real clue what's going to happen," Danielle Vinson, a politics and international affairs professor at Furman University, told USA TODAY. "Can (Graham) win the sentimentality vote and her loyalty to Trump carry her, or will voters want something different? This race is definitely a toss-up for sure."
Many political experts say the same.
"I do consider it basically a toss-up," said Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of the nonpartisan Sabato's Crystal Ball newsletter at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "Graham has had a weak finish to the race, thanks to her comments about not knowing much about foreign policy."
Is Trump's endorsement still a factor for Graham?
The runoff election will be a true test of whether Trump's backing is still enough to sway a race.
"If you had've asked me a week ago, I would've said that Graham has an edge based on Trump's endorsement, but given her debate gaffe and Norman capitalizing on it, this is much closer than expected heading into the home stretch," University of South Carolina political Science professor Kirk Randazzo told USA TODAY. "If I had to, I'd give maybe a slight edge in Norman’s favor. But that’s a slight edge. I think anything could happen on Tuesday."
Trump stressed the importance of Graham winning at a campaign rally for the candidate in Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, on Aug. 21. The president urged supporters to vote for Graham, acknowledging that enthusiasm for voting among Republican candidates dips when he's not on the ballot.
"So what I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot. Just come and vote. It’s so important," Trump said. "So just say that I’m on the ballot one more time. You got to say it, and you got to come out and vote."
In an Aug. 24 tele-rally, Trump said Darline Graham "fully supports the Trump agenda."
"I asked her to do it. I got her into this whole thing," Trump said of Darline Graham, referencing his efforts to personally recruit her to run for the seat despite her lack of experience in public office. "I have to make sure she gets in because there will be nobody better."
So far, Trump has a near-perfect primary success rate for his endorsed Republican candidates, including Georgia Senate nominee Mike Collins, Texas Senate nominee Ken Paxton and New York congressional nominee Anthony Constantino, according to Ballotpedia, a longtime online elections website. But recent losses have raised questions about his influence, including Minnesota gubernatorial candidate Mike Lindell, TennesseeRep. Andy Ogles, and Michigan congressional candidate Amir Hassan.
"My Endorsements are stronger than ever — Not to mention the fact that good people are getting elected that never had the chance! Here is an accurate list of the last number of seasons. There has never been anything close! It is an Honor that I take very seriously," Trump said in a Truth Social post on Aug. 23.
Darline Graham received just a third of all votes to advance to the runoff, showing she isn't convincing enough Republicans, despite having Trump's backing, said Kwadwo Poku-Agyemang, a political science professor at Claflin University.
"She doesn’t appear to have much sway on Republican voters; that Trump endorsement, that's what she has going for her," Poku-Agyemang said. "You would think having that would move the needle. I don't think it has."
That was about a 27,000-vote advantage, Poku-Agyemang, director of Claflin's Public Opinion and Social Behavior Research Institute (POSBRI), said Norman can take from the votes captured by the special primary's three other candidates who came up short.
While Fry has endorsed Darline Graham in the GOP runoff, Sanford and Lynch are backing Norman, a member of the House Freedom Caucus.
"Norman has a chance of winning," Poku-Agyemang said. "If Graham wins, I believe her brother’s legacy will be a big part of it."
Will voters turn out again?
As Vinson, the Furman University political science professor, cast her ballot in Greenville, South Carolina, during the Aug. 11 special GOP Senate primary, she recalled a poll worker thanked her and said, "We’ll see you in two weeks."
But after two elections to pick a Republican Senate candidate, voters may not be willing to do it a third time in more than two months.
Lindsey Graham won the Republican primary on June 9 to recapture a U.S. Senate seat he initially won in 2002. But his sudden death on July 11 due to an aortic tear created a void.
His sister placed first in the Aug. 11 special primary but short of the 50% majority needed to avoid a runoff that may see low voter turnout.
"Some people may just stay home," Vinson said. "It’s a bit of a crapshoot."
About 11% of the state's registered Republican voters participated in the Aug. 11 primary, Claflin's Poku-Agyemang said. He expects it could be between 11% and 15%, or maybe in the single digits.
Randazzo, the University of South Carolina political scientist, said, "I don't think either candidate has done a good job convincing voters why they should be elected for the Senate. Two weeks is an incredibly short period of time to do so."
Low turnout could make the race close or unpredictable, Scott Huffmon, a political science professor at Winthrop University, told USA TODAY.
"We just have no idea who's going to show up. Identifying likely voters for a runoff after a special primary with less than a month turnaround is an absolute shot in the dark," Huffmon said.
Huffmon believes most conservatives will favor Norman, viewing him as a "disruptor" candidate who will adopt Trump's agenda and "embraces fighting for change."
But Trump's in-person campaigning for Darline Graham "shows he believes in her," Huffmon added.
"This race likely comes down to whether the disruptors are motivated to show up for Norman, or if Trump’s support will get his MAGA true believers to vote for Graham and don’t care what she knows about foreign policy or not," Huffmon said.
For better or worse, Randazzo believes those factors can either further propel Darline Graham's chances or derail them.
"She's heavily relying on her family name and the endorsement of Donald Trump," Randazzo said. "And, right now it’s anyone’s guess if that might be enough to win."
The winner of the special GOP Senate runoff election will challenge Democratic nominee and political novice Annie Andrews, a physician, in the heavily Republican state.
Contributing: Joey Garrison
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Will Darline Graham turn her family name, Trump's support into SC win?
